Previous counts have to be recycled. I am not that confident anymore as wave b can keep extending but considering what is happening in USDRUB, the end might be near.
I have checked what Andrey Tsvetkov is saying about RTS and though I do not agree with his count he gave me the idea about smaller triangle (than I used to have) in the middle of the chart. I relabled the count and voila' I have RTS chart consistent with USDRUB futures chart I posted before - Now I am confident in the count again. Though it means that I have to...
Wave 2 (circle) extended and made me update the count. Shorts are aching and invalidation level is near. Nevertheless, I hold short and long USDRUB as there is a similar picture.
I am getting increasingly worried about RTS. The only way to label the wave down is expanding diagonal which is not always good to base your count on as it is statistically rare. On a higher level there is another expanding diagonal. On another hand may be these are fractals - the sign that the count is correct.
An alternative is in red and I do not like it....
My previous count was invalidated. Here I make a case for expanding leading diagonal. Wave 4 is just by a hairthin longer than wave 2 but otherwise the rules are intact.
The Russian market took a dive at the open and recovered. On daily chart there is a nice green pinbar which may be the sing that the bull market is starting. More proportionate looking alternative however is that it was just the first wave out of five and the market will keep sliding for one more week.
Reiterating a longer-term picture for RTS. After speking to colleagues in the office today I decided to stress that the Russian stock market is giving a glimpse of hope that we will have good news for all of the world by the end of the year. But first some shit will happen. Hopefully, just a technical decline to finish off the broader market revaluation.
RTS Russian Index in USD might is singalling a sharp drop is ahead to finish wave 2 before long ascend. Hopefully this happens on the back fo US indexes expected drop and not due to geopolitics.
All right, our contest continues. The price did break up to the upside from the triangle and Andrey's bullish case (the brick one) seems confirmed. I am carrying the loss on the trade and continue seeking out bearish interpretations (white or grey labels). And you know what? It is almost always possible to twist a chart in both ways.
What I did change is that I...
All right, the educational case is nearing the end. I made a bet that despite the market looks conventionally bullish (consolidating in a triangle on a way up), it is actually bearish.
I have lost some degree of confidence (as the market indeed looks bullish). However the area highlighted by the rectnagle makes me seek out bearish confrimations.
You can see...
It is interesting how the same Elliott Wave technique can result in diametrically opposite views. I almost never watch anybody else's charts. I find it distracting and almost ... useless. With the exception of t.me by Andrey Tsvetkov. It happened that I kept it among my Telegram news channels as I like how steady this guy is. He records videos every week sharing...
