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FCPUM2022 trade ideas

Short British PoundCommercials have been actively distributing sterling over the past month and a half, even as large and small speculators persist in taking long positions. However, today witnessed a startling turn of events as the Bank of England caught the market off guard by implementing a substantial 50 basis point rate hike. In the event that the price concludes the day on a downward trajectory, I will initiate a short position on the British Pound. This occurrence exemplifies a phenomenon known as 'news failure,' wherein bullish news unexpectedly yields bearish price action. Consequently, if today indeed marks the peak of the market, I intend to set my stop loss order at the day's high.
CME:6B1!Short
by HashxCapital
GBP - 1.24 Lower Next?!GBP - 1.24 Next?! CME:6B1! FX:GBPUSD GBPUSD - 1.24 Next! We've had a great run, I'd still be buying longer term dips on GBP - However, for now I feel a pull back is due and this is great opportunity for us traders to take opportunities of the bull and bear side! Overall pattern, wedge - We've broken to down side the first area of interest to me is 1.24/ 1.23 high areas and the next would be 1.22 areas! If we are to close above 1.25 i'd be re thinking this plan... Trade Journal (Not Financial Advice)
CME:6B1!
by Trade_Journal
3
GBPUSD - Short Term Bearish Analysis/ExpectationThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF - ETC
CME:6B1!Short
by SmartMoneySource
GBP - Month & Quarter End...GBP - Month & Quarter End... What a quarter we've had...We do still have plenty of data coming out today. Buckle up! We just had EUR CPI flash coming out lower than expected but the core is in line but today we have another important data print coming out of US - Core PCE Price Index m/m. Which is a key metric the FED are taking into account. Now I don't know about you but end of the month and end of the quarter is week I take off and just watch the market as we do get lot of funky moves and I know a lot people struggle with FOMO I was one of them but you got know when to step away and stand on the side line! GBP we hitting the key resistance areas the next area to take into consideration is 1.24/1.25 areas. I've been bullish GBP since the start of the year and I am still very much bullish on GBP but you got trade what you see, not what you think. You can see through my 2023 post regarding where most of them majors could reach. Now where we are today technically, in a bullish trend as long as we are within this channel on cable, we go above the areas of 1.24500 then I expect 1.26 - key resistance is 1.25 keep that in mind... but if we struggle and we go below the areas of 1.2310 support then I expect 1.22 to be key support. Now, i'd be careful trading today....It's Friday a good trader well known as 'Coach' always stated "Don't make your PnL on Friday!" Let's have a great Q2 - all the best traders! Trade Journal
CME:6B1!
by Trade_Journal
pound🎯 I m in the short, BOE in a few minutes but I hold thru the news. 🟧Entry basics Never enter blindly on the level. Always put everything in a higher timeframe context. The level must be violated and the price has to do a pullback and Break of the structure. Then you look for the entry on the order block or FVG above/below 50% pullback. SL is above swing high and set TP to 3R. Don't try to predict where the price will go next or don't try to take 1:50R trade. We trade intraday reversal and reaction on the level. We get our 3R and get out of the market. For the short trade, the scheme would be obviously an upside-down picture picture 🟩When to enter the trade Setup and entry must occur at these times, as it's the time when we can get the biggest volatility and highest probability 🔵London Session - 02:00-05:00 NY time // 08:00-11:00 EU time 🟢New York Session - 07:00-10:00 NY time // 14:00 - 17:00 EU time This Strategy is not about predicting the market and the next movements. It's about the trading reaction in the liquidity levels. Which is good enough to make money by trading a couple of hours a week.
CME_MINI:M6B1!
by Dave-FX-Hunter
pound🎯 I will be looking for entries in the external liquidity levels as highlighted on the charts 🟩 Trading TIme Setups must occur at these times otherwise I'm not interested. 🔵London Killzone - LOKZ 02:00-05:00 NY time // 08:00-11:00 EU time 🟢New York Killzone - NYKZ - 07:00-10:00 NY time // 14:00 - 17:00 EU time 🟧Entry Scheme Never enter blindly on the level. Always look for the break of the structure and pullback as the scheme shows. Yes, sometimes the market will not pull back and you miss a trade that's the part of the game. But it's better not to be in the trade you want to be than, being in the trade you don't want to be. For the short trade, the scheme would be obviously an upside-down picture picture 🟦 Rules -Skip the London session if the Asia session was trending - Wait for manipulation at the session open, which enters HTF POI and takes out Buy-side liquidity/ Sell-side Liquidity - Look at smart money divergence as the additional confluence - Wait for Break of Structure ( M1 if in sync with trend / HTF BOS if counter-trend) + displacement/momentum shift M3 /M5 candle close for confirmation - Figure out: where is your invalidation (SL) and FPOL (TP1) before entering your trade - Enter short at pullback to first POI (FVG/ OTE /OB) above respective EQ ( discount ) of Return to origin area on lower timeframe - Set SL above swing low of manipulation, as price already took LQ out it should not go there again. - When the price moves 50% of the expected Target range, the stop loss can be trimmed by 25% - When the price moves 75% of the expected range the stop loss can be trimmed to breakeven - Never trade a POI that has liquidity resting above (short) or below (long), - Don't enter when FPOL (for example swing low/high) has been hit before getting you into the position - Never enter a trade right before news events. - Don't try to predict the market, just take 1:3 RR on the level and get out. - This is intraday trading but there is no trade every day. Pick just the best setups. In theory, we have 2 pairs, 2 trading sessions 5 trading days in a week its 20 opportunities. You don't need to trade them all. With 1:3 RR, making consistently 3 good trades in a week will put you into top 1% class of traders. 🟦Market Maker model Schematics 🟪Smart Money Divergence The dollar index and USD pairs usually trade asymmetric, for example, DXY making higher highs will result in $EURUSD making lower lows and vice versa. When the price on one has lower lows, it is expected that the other should reach higher highs. When this does not occur, we have smart money Divergence. This is suggestive of major accumulation/consolidation in advance of a major move in the opposite direction. This is just the basics of my strategy, but enough for you to know what to do on the levels. 👊 BRUCE LEE´S RECOMMENDATIONS: 1 ) “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” - Inspired by elements of Market Profile, ICT, and SupplyandDemands strategies I adapted what is useful, rejected useless and added specifically my own parts. 2) “I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.“ - The quote above teaches us about mastery. You don't need to know 5 strategies, tenths of formations, or have 20 pairs on the watchlist. Learn 1 setup pick up 2 pairs and practice them 10 000 times, and become a specialist. If you have any questions write a comment I'm happy to help Good luck Dave FX Hunter
CME_MINI:M6B1!
by Dave-FX-Hunter
1
pound🎯 I will be looking for entries in the external liquidity levels as highlighted on the charts 🟩 Trading TIme Setups must occur at these times otherwise I'm not interested. 🔵London Killzone - LOKZ 02:00-05:00 NY time // 08:00-11:00 EU time 🟢New York Killzone - NYKZ - 07:00-10:00 NY time // 14:00 - 17:00 EU time 🟧Entry Scheme Never enter blindly on the level. Always look for the break of the structure and pullback as the scheme shows. Yes, sometimes the market will not pull back and you miss a trade that's the part of the game. But it's better not to be in the trade you want to be than, being in the trade you don't want to be. For the short trade, the scheme would be obviously an upside-down picture picture 🟦 Rules -Skip the London session if the Asia session was trending - Wait for manipulation at the session open, which enters HTF POI and takes out Buy-side liquidity/ Sell-side Liquidity - Look at smart money divergence as the additional confluence - Wait for Break of Structure ( M1 if in sync with trend / HTF BOS if counter-trend) + displacement/momentum shift M3 /M5 candle close for confirmation - Figure out: where is your invalidation (SL) and FPOL (TP1) before entering your trade - Enter short at pullback to first POI (FVG/ OTE /OB) above respective EQ ( discount ) of Return to origin area on lower timeframe - Set SL above swing low of manipulation, as price already took LQ out it should not go there again. - When the price moves 50% of the expected Target range, the stop loss can be trimmed by 25% - When the price moves 75% of the expected range the stop loss can be trimmed to breakeven - Never trade a POI that has liquidity resting above (short) or below (long), - Don't enter when FPOL (for example swing low/high) has been hit before getting you into the position - Never enter a trade right before news events. - Don't try to predict the market, just take 1:3 RR on the level and get out. - This is intraday trading but there is no trade every day. Pick just the best setups. In theory, we have 2 pairs, 2 trading sessions 5 trading days in a week its 20 opportunities. You don't need to trade them all. With 1:3 RR, making consistently 3 good trades in a week will put you into top 1% class of traders. 🟦Market Maker model Schematics 🟪Smart Money Divergence The dollar index and USD pairs usually trade asymmetric, for example, DXY making higher highs will result in $EURUSD making lower lows and vice versa. When the price on one has lower lows, it is expected that the other should reach higher highs. When this does not occur, we have smart money Divergence. This is suggestive of major accumulation/consolidation in advance of a major move in the opposite direction. This is just the basics of my strategy, but enough for you to know what to do on the levels. 👊 BRUCE LEE´S RECOMMENDATIONS: 1 ) “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” - Inspired by elements of Market Profile, ICT, and SupplyandDemands strategies I adapted what is useful, rejected useless and added specifically my own parts. 2) “I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.“ - The quote above teaches us about mastery. You don't need to know 5 strategies, tenths of formations, or have 20 pairs on the watchlist. Learn 1 setup pick up 2 pairs and practice them 10 000 times, and become a specialist. If you have any questions write a comment I'm happy to help Good luck Dave FX Hunter
CME_MINI:M6B1!
by Dave-FX-Hunter
pound🎯 I will be looking for entries in the external liquidity levels as highlighted on the charts 🟩 Trading TIme Setups must occur at these times otherwise I'm not interested. 🔵London Killzone - LOKZ 02:00-05:00 NY time // 08:00-11:00 EU time 🟢New York Killzone - NYKZ - 07:00-10:00 NY time // 14:00 - 17:00 EU time 🟧Entry Scheme Never enter blindly on the level. Always look for the break of the structure and pullback as the scheme shows. Yes, sometimes the market will not pull back and you miss a trade that's the part of the game. But it's better not to be in the trade you want to be than, being in the trade you don't want to be. For the short trade, the scheme would be obviously an upside-down picture picture 🟦 Rules -Skip the London session if the Asia session was trending - Wait for manipulation at the session open, which enters HTF POI and takes out Buy-side liquidity/ Sell-side Liquidity - Look at smart money divergence as the additional confluence - Wait for Break of Structure ( M1 if in sync with trend / HTF BOS if counter-trend) + displacement/momentum shift M3 /M5 candle close for confirmation - Figure out: where is your invalidation (SL) and FPOL (TP1) before entering your trade - Enter short at pullback to first POI (FVG/ OTE /OB) above respective EQ ( discount ) of Return to origin area on lower timeframe - Set SL above swing low of manipulation, as price already took LQ out it should not go there again. - When the price moves 50% of the expected Target range, the stop loss can be trimmed by 25% - When the price moves 75% of the expected range the stop loss can be trimmed to breakeven - Never trade a POI that has liquidity resting above (short) or below (long), - Don't enter when FPOL (for example swing low/high) has been hit before getting you into the position - Never enter a trade right before news events. - Don't try to predict the market, just take 1:3 RR on the level and get out. - This is intraday trading but there is no trade every day. Pick just the best setups. In theory, we have 2 pairs, 2 trading sessions 5 trading days in a week its 20 opportunities. You don't need to trade them all. With 1:3 RR, making consistently 3 good trades in a week will put you into top 1% class of traders. 🟦Market Maker model Schematics 🟪Smart Money Divergence The dollar index and USD pairs usually trade asymmetric, for example, DXY making higher highs will result in $EURUSD making lower lows and vice versa. When the price on one has lower lows, it is expected that the other should reach higher highs. When this does not occur, we have smart money Divergence. This is suggestive of major accumulation/consolidation in advance of a major move in the opposite direction. This is just the basics of my strategy, but enough for you to know what to do on the levels. 👊 BRUCE LEE´S RECOMMENDATIONS: 1 ) “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” - Inspired by elements of Market Profile, ICT, and SupplyandDemands strategies I adapted what is useful, rejected useless and added specifically my own parts. 2) “I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.“ - The quote above teaches us about mastery. You don't need to know 5 strategies, tenths of formations, or have 20 pairs on the watchlist. Learn 1 setup pick up 2 pairs and practice them 10 000 times, and become a specialist. If you have any questions write a comment I'm happy to help Good luck Dave FX Hunter
CME_MINI:M6B1!
by Dave-FX-Hunter
$GBP slipper slope - shortOne-year risk reversals in cable, a barometer of market positioning and sentiment, rallied on Monday in favor of calls by the most since June 2016, implying bearish sentiment haunting the currency retreated almost as fast as the government’s decision to scrap plans for vast unfunded fiscal stimulus. The gauge had reached a record bearish level last week on concern the policy would balloon the government deficit and fan inflation. In an added sign of the improving outlook, hedge funds -- which flock to options markets to place large bets -- have been closing options structures that pay out should the pound weaken since Friday. That’s according to Europe-based traders familiar with the transactions who asked not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly. To be sure, bearish bets still dominate the options space and the magnitude of the move was mainly down to extreme positioning. Still, it shows investors now see lower chances for a deep drop in the UK currency following the policy U-Turn. The repositioning came as the pound rallied on Monday, outperforming Group-of-10 peers to rise 1.7% to $1.1358. Sterling swung between gains and losses in early trading on Tuesday following a report the Bank of England is likely to delay its planned sale of government bonds. It was trading 0.2% weaker at $1.1339 as of 9:29 a.m. London. I disagree w/this analysis. I believe the headwinds remain unchanged and they are strong. The market isn't the public, it votes w/its money and the smart money is selling. Further, the BOE isn't in the business of buying gilts (bonds) but it did and is holding them. Why? because when Truss put them to mkt - they got no bid. The BOE smartly doesn't want to get the same pie on its face so, its booking them. Nothing has changed. Down range it remains the same.
CME:6B1!Short
by tilbert
London Bridge is Falling Down!CME_MINI:M6B1! U.K. financial markets went into a freefall last week as Prime Minister Liz Truss announced aggressive income tax cuts amid deep fiscal trouble. British pound is trading at $1.11 to USD, half of its value in 2007. However, it’s unfair to blame everything on a new PM and a new King. Both got their jobs just a month ago. Sterling’s downfall started at the Bretton Woods in 1944, where US dollar replaced it as the default currency in international settlement. More recently, Brexit made UK weaker and less integrated into the global economy. Let’s take a quick look at what happened in the last decade: David Cameron (2010-2016) • Mr. Cameron was reelected Prime Minister for a second 5-year term in May 2015 • To fulfill his campaign promise, he organized a referendum on June 23rd, 2016 • When asked if the UK should stay in the European Union, 51.9% of the voters said No • On July 13th, 2016, Mr. Cameron resigned Theresa May (2016-2019) • Theresa May became the new Prime Minister after Mr. Cameron resigned • In the following three years, she failed to negotiate exit terms with the EU • On July 24, 2019, Theresa May resigned Boris Johnson (2019-2022) • Former London Mayor Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May as Prime Minister • He engineered a hard Brexit in January 2020 without finalizing exit terms • Johnson led UK government through global pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict • On July 7, 2022, Boris Johnson announced his resignation Liz Truss (September 6th, 2022 - Present) • On September 23rd, Liz Truss announced the so-called “UK mini-budget” • Key points: cut income tax from 20% to 19% and abolished a 45% higher tax rate • New budget was received poorly by investors, causing market panic last week When each of the Prime Ministers left office, they saw Sterling weaker than the day they assumed office: Cameron, from $1.7 to $1.3; May, from $1.3 to $1.2; Johnson, from $1.2 to $1.15; Truss, in less than a month, from $1.15 to $1.09 before rebounding to $1.11. Where Will Sterling Go from Here? Recent depreciation of Sterling can be explained by the Interest Rate Parity (IRP) theory. IRP states that the interest rate differential between two countries is equal to the differential between the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate. It basically says that a country with higher interest rates would lead to a stronger currency. • In 2022, the Fed raised interest rates five times for 300 basis points (bps), to 3.00%-3.25% • In comparison, the Bank of England raised rates three times for 125 bps, to 2.25% • European Central Bank raised rate only once for 75 bps, to 0.75% • The Fed outruns the Bank of England and the ECB in both interest rate level and the frequency of rate hikes • As prescribed by the IRP, aggressive Fed tightening results in a strong dollar, and weak Sterling and Euro In the next year, I expect the pending global recession could result in a soft landing in the US, but hard landing in both the UK and the European continent. In the long run, exchange rates reflect the relative strengths of two countries. The divorce of the UK from the EU makes them both weaker players on the world stage. In 2021, the European Union had an aggregate GDP of $17.9 trillion, making the EU Block the 2nd largest economy in the world behind the US. However, after exclusion of UK’s $3.11 trillion GDP, the 27-nation EU would rank 3rd behind China. UK ranks 5th, after the United States, China, Japan, and Germany. This is a far cry from the mighty British Empire which accounted for a quarter of the world economy in 1870. Today’s British Commonwealth is a loose network of countries with shared culture and history. None uses Sterling as legal currency except for the UK. How to Trade a Bearish View in British Pound? The next Fed rate-setting meeting is scheduled on November 1-2. October may be a calm month in terms of US monetary policy actions. However, in a crisis mode, it’s quite possible for both the Truss administration and Bank of England to utter emergency measures to strength the British financial markets, with Pound Sterling included. I would watch the British government actions closely in the next few weeks. We could wait for a rebound of Sterling before putting on the Short Futures trade. CME Micro GBP/USD futures ( CME_MINI:M6B1! ) has a notional value of £6,250. Initial margin is $255 per contract. December contract (M6BZ2) is currently quoted at $1.1172. Barring a new "Lehman moment", the Fed would stay on its course to raise rates and fight inflation. I expect dollar to resume its rise against the Sterling in November and December. On July 13th, my trade idea, The Demise of Euro Is Not Greatly Exaggerated, called for shorting the Euro. The Euro has since fallen a whopping 2% to $0.98 from on par with the dollar. My opinion on a bearish Euro CME:6E1! still holds today. Financial market is extremely volatile this year. Getting an information edge increases your odds of success in managing risk. I suggest leveraging real-time market data for a better gauge of market situation. TradingView users already have access to delayed data. A Pro user could upgrade to real-time CME market data for only $4 a month, a huge discount at the time of high inflation. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Editors' picks
CME:6B1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
52
Is the GBP on the edge of a cliff?As the British Pound approaches a major support level of 1.4000, we think it is akin to peering over the edge of a cliff. With one of the worst headline inflation rates in the developed markets, crippling energy bills, and a newly elected government, the Bank of England (BOE) is in a place few would want to be in. As the next policy meeting date nears, the central bank is likely to raise rates. But by how much? Too little, and inflation will remain a key issue weighing on the currency’s attractiveness compared to the USD. Too much, and consumers will be crushed with the already astronomical energy bills and rising loan re-payment, likely pushing the UK further into stagflation, something that central banks try to avoid. Either way, pound traders are likely to be disappointed. And we have not even begun to mention the effects the energy bill cap might have on longer-run inflation. The technical setup proves more interesting as the current price lies right on the 1.4000 level, a major support level, only ever breached once in 1984 and retested once in 2020. We think a clear break of this will likely lead the pound to fall harder as traders ride the downward momentum. On a shorter timeframe, the pair is arguably trading in a descending channel. As current prices teeter on the lower channel band, a breakout at the downside could spell trouble, sending the pair lower. There seems to be little in the way to slow the move lower for the GBPUSD pair as both macro headwinds and technical ones beat down the Pound lower against the USD. With the US Federal Reserve meeting on the 21st and Bank of England meeting on the 22nd of September, we expect higher volatility over the next few days, a snap lower could drive momentum traders to further extend the downside move. Entry at 1.1450, stop at 1.17400. Target at 1.08000 and 1.06150. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
Editors' picks
CME:6B1!Short
by inspirante
21
MICRO GBP/USD Futures (M6B1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish rise Resistance :1.1774 Pivot:1.1650 Support : 1.1497 Preferred Case: On the H4, with the price breaking the descending trendline and ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise from the pivot at 1.1650, where the current price and overlap resistance are to the 1st resistance at 1.1774 where the overlap resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the support at 1.1497, where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement is. Fundamentals: Although many data of GBP out today are lower than expectation, the drop of DXY has stronger impact on the price. Therefore, we hold a weak bullish bias.
CME_MINI:M6B1!Long
by Genesiv
1