HEM2015 trade ideas
Lean Hogs Idea HE1!I am expecting 4 more weeks of downside until the week of September 23 testing the yellow trendline.
After that, hopefully prices return to resistance around 92 as indicated by the blue arrow.
hogs anticipating furthering tensions in trade. hong kong hong kong is the turning point in the trade war.
violent limit down likely- hogs smelling more tarriffs?chinese wanting to save face, but trump wanting to match. trump has to match. if the situation in hong kong turns bad, this has negative implications for Taiwan and US defense agreements with Taiwan. Taiwan is a pain point where where cold wars could potentially turn hot..
hogs likely limit down with cattleboth a trade war indicator of possible escalation incoming. today's wasde was bearish grains meaning supply is pretty plentiful, from a fundamental perspective that'll play a supportive role for the meat complex/the crush ratio. regardless of the fundamental picture, global trade is likely to hold this market hostage til a definitive resolution
wasde hold outwhat will the grains show? could we possibly see a change in consumer behavior? i still think based on the crush hogs still have a little ways to go. the crush shows feed prices vs hogs the hypothetical cost to grow a hog/bring to slaughter
hogs likely sniffing out positive trade newsseeing a price volume and osc divergence. im under the assumption of positive talks on the way?
HE1 Lean Hogs IdeaHE1!
I am looking at a support in the green rectangle before continuing to test the recent highs at 92.75.
Limit down hogs pointing to more tarriffs aheadAug 12 crop report may offer support but Outlook is bleak at best
waiting for a trade deal? don't hold your breathhogs are one of my indicators on trade front. a lot of optimism and hope. i think its about to drastically pull back which is unique. hogs have a few factors working in its favor, it just shows how bad things really may be
Lean Hogs: 3 tier long term buy opportunity.Lean Hogs have been trading sideways since late 2015 and on the monthly chart is best illustrated by the neutral monthly chart (RSI = 51.940, Williams = -47.019, CCI = 34.8246, Highs/Lows = 0.000).
On 1D the MA200 works as a pivot attracting the price always after an annual High or Low. The price is currently trading above so we are expecting a sharp decline below this MA200 consolidation belt and towards the previous 2 lows which now represent a 3 tier buy opportunity: 55.100, 48.000 and 41.000.
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year of the pig-- implications of trade vs weather vs swine fluAfrican swine flu is a big problem within china, I expect purchases from mainlain china to continue, however trade influences may change the dynamics of the pace as china seeks out an alternative sources.
in combination with china trade, african swine, weather is affecting the overall strenght of the pork market during grilling season.
i see more pain ahead. it's been a wild ride in pork stay safe and have fun
Volume collapsed Classic price collapse is going to occur yes the African swine fever is still going on, but trading volume is telling us to short the market
year of the pig- wowwow. just wow. the anticipation made last month over african swine flu is looking good. this is also a trade war indicator...
Lean Hogs ready to go up because of grilling season coming ?Lean Hogs are moving by strong seasonality - after grilling season ends (usually at June to August) the price usually goes sharply down. After that big move, price usually goes up until end of grilling season. Price is also at historical strong ressistence + COT report is also extremely bullish ( it shows us positions of biggest players in the market).
LEAN HOGS FUTURES (APR 2019), 1D, CMETrading Signal
Long Position (EP) : 61.325
Stop Loss (SL) : 60.05
Take Profit (TP) : 63.875
Description
HEJ2019 formed Turtle Soup Buy at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Buy Stop at 0.382 Level (61.325) and place stop after 0.618 level (60.05). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (63.875)
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $1,000,000
Risk Management (1%) : $10,000
Position Sizing
$0.025 = +-$10/std-contract
Commission fee = -$5.8/std-contract
EP to SL = $1.2750 = -$510
Contract size to open = 19 standard contracts
EP to TP = $2.5500 = +$1020
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$110.2
Loss = -$9,690
Gain = +$19,380
Risk/Reward Ratio = 1.97
lean hogs a great opportunitya leading indicator for trade talks but also effected by african swine flu. there's an underlying bullish bias but may take time and patience
