What a WILD week we had!
Last week was insanely noisy between the FOMC on Wed, NASDAQ:AAPL earnings on Thursday, and NFP on Friday. This coming week of May 5th offers very little in the way of news catalysts, so it will be great for us TA based traders.
So far, all of our weekly objectives have been playing out - and nothing has really changed from my perch...
I think the market is trying to rally a little bit and form the lower high and the right shoulder.
I placed the 0.5 and 0.66 golden pocket as a general guide to where it COULD pullback to.
That cluster I marked, to me, is a dead give away that is the market's objective and will take that out for a stop run.
I have noticed that the past 12 NFP's have generally...
Last week we got the YM1! backtest that I wanted on the weekly.
We rejected the weekly IRL and now I am looking to take out LOY on the Dow.
Dropping to the h4 chart, we can clearly see the market is now primed to drop. I am looking for a sweep of highs to begin the weekly sell program.
For those watching - we also got the 50% retrace of SPX on the...
I am looking at a repeat of the previous correction back in July 2023.
Some key takeaways:
Deathcross triggered April 4th
Hourly 200sma is now in downtrend mode
Currently in a bear flag consolidation to pullback into the declining 200sma
Space under the low of the bear flag in relation to the prior pivot low
A gap that needs to be filled at the start of the...
Nobody will ring a bell at the top.
What a great selloff we had last week! I was expecting a pop higher for the sell but they just wanted to pull the rug on bulls early in the week it seems.
Pretty much everything got monkey hammered. Indexes and Oil slid while gold held in (for now). The great news is we now have a directional market to trade again - these are...
Short Term Elliott Wave View in Dow Futures (YM) suggests the Index ended wave (4) correction at 37473. The Index has now turned higher in wave (5). However, it still needs to break above the previous wave (3) peak on 4.1.2024 at 40358 to rule out a double correction. Up from wave (4), wave ((i)) ended at 38451 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 382808. Wave...
Unlike ES and NQ, YM is not trading above it's respective highs which is $38,958 and barely closed in a premium indicating weakness.
Sitting on my hands awaiting more information.
Introduction to Ratio Spreads on E-mini Dow Jones Futures
In the dynamic world of options trading, Ratio Spreads stand out as a sophisticated strategy designed for traders looking to leverage market nuances to their advantage. Regular options on the E-mini Dow Jones Futures are a popular choice (YM).
Defining the E-mini Dow Jones (YM) Futures Contract
Before...
CBOT_MINI:MYM1! Dow Futures have broken below the distributive uptrend channel and confirms the double top formation. Long-term MACD is bearish while mid-term stochastic has shown an oversold crossover. 23-period ROC is below the zero line and Ichimoku has shown first sign of bearish signal. Support is at 37,600
In comparison with ES and NQ, YM has been more disciplined in terms of following market order flow as there are few liquidity gaps present and the ones that are present (such as the one I outlined last week @ 38238 - 38150 was respected going into last weeks trading.
I must note that Thursdays sell off through the newfound liquidity void has meant that smart...
YM1! (Mini Dow Jones Futures) has experienced a significant downtrend recently, prompting traders to seek insights into the reasons behind this decline. In this analysis, we will explore several factors contributing to YM1!'s downward movement.
Technical Analysis:
Bearish Trendline Break: YM1! has breached a key support level represented by a bearish trendline...
Now that NFP broke bullish above the last 4 hour pivot high, price is still in bullish push phase to reach the next higher high. Looking at somewhere in supply zone.
I am looking for the next higher low pullback to be in the demand zone and above the last higher low made by FOMC.
Of course, NFP could also just be a false break and will trade back inside that...
Current micro-primary count for YM1!. Working off premise of impulse wave down from 40358 to 37463, corrective double-three bounce off low with zigzag W, X, expanded flat Y. Count valid with price above 37866, with median line of pitchfork as target.
The weekly internal liquidity has been made with buyside resting at $38637 and sellside printed at $37463 but the overall week has been rangebound.
We can clearly see that there has been a fight at the daily liquidity void with candle bodies rejecting that zone. 38344 Fridays high is my first point of interest with 38410* being target 2.
Last week Thursday's...
On the hourly chart, looking for a bullish pullback at/near the rising hourly 21ema.
Looking for a sideways consolidation to go sideways until the 21ema catches up.
The green line inside of the consolidation is Tuesday's closing price.
Stop will be 75 ticks and Target is up there around 200 ticks
A technique that I use is during a downtrend, the first pop above the 200sma 9/10 will produce a lower low and continue down to break the lows.
Price is currently popping above the 200sma
I will show you various examples of this technique from the last two years
Using this information, I will expect the lows to be broken and a new lower low will...
