The recent rally of the 2-year Treasury has unfolded following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's shift toward a slightly dovish stance in the latest policy meeting. Powell's rhetoric emphasized the importance of proceeding cautiously with the path of interest rates, prompting a surge in demand and short covering in the bond market.
Against this backdrop, the...
Treasuries have continued to sell off as the Treasury market reprices both interest rate and inflation expectations. Recently, the yield curve has begun to steepen further, and the 2s – 10s inversion has gradually decreased. The longer end of the Treasury market has experienced a significant increase in supply due to Congress's spending increases and liquidation...
Major Indexes ended the month and Quarter on a positive note and held the recent trend up although the price action is extended and hints at some profit taking to come. We are now into a new quarter so could see some longs unwind into the new week; add to that the spike in Oil (cough, cough...manipulation from OPEC); and markets will see some increased volatility....
A review of the price action from the European session and the US session. Major indexes were generally range bound to mildly higher. Inflation and rate rise expectations kept the major indexes under pressure with the focus now on the major US employment data release. The USD held onto the recent gains while US bonds held onto the recent lows.
I remain of the...
A review of the price action from the European session and US session as traders go into 'risk off' mode on stronger than expected inflationary data. The US gapped down on the open and held the lows into the close. The USD continued higher while US bond yields again rallied which pressured the broader share market. I look at some key levels to watch and the price...
A look at the price action from the European and US sessions and what that may mean for the Asian market open after PPI out in the US was stronger than expected adding fuel to the inflation fire. I feel data is still showing 'sticky inflation' which eventually leads to higher interest rates and lower spending which will cap the indexes. Intraday the US could not...
A look at the price action from the European and US sessions and what that may mean for the Asian market open after PPI out in the US was stronger than expected adding fuel to the inflation fire. I feel data is still showing 'sticky inflation' which eventually leads to higher interest rates and lower spending which will cap the indexes. Intraday the US could not...
This week, we thought it will be interesting to review the trade from last week given the reaction post-FOMC, as well as discuss an alternative way to set up this trade.
Firstly, let’s review the post-FOMC/employment data reaction.
- Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside, as over half a million jobs were added way above the estimates of a sub 200K...
ZT was banging its head against cyan resistance area, but it seems it is finally breaking out.
I would conlcude that FED tightening cycle is over, probably not actual raising of fed funds rate, but hawkish speek.
Morning Jumpstart 25-01-22
US Bounced bark hard from a weak open after trapping and squeezing some sellers. Bargain hunters were out in force expecting that the selloff is over and its time to buy the Dip. I feel that we may have seen the highs put in place and may expect a further unwind of bulls as inflation and interest rate rises kick in. More in the...
Bonds will dump back to the monthly 55ema over the next month
Hedge against inflation with Bitcoin and Litecoin (not centralized defi scams)
2008 play by play
Gotta get up to get down
