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10-Year T-Note Futures (Sep 2013)10-Year T-Note Futures (Sep 2013)10-Year T-Note Futures (Sep 2013)

10-Year T-Note Futures (Sep 2013)

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ZNU2013 trade ideas

Has the bond market bottomed?The big question everyone is asking today (and yesterday) is "Is the bottom in the bond market?" So far, following the FOMC decision yesterday, the market seems to think so. And following the jobs report (Non Farm Payroll number) tomorrow, we will probably have a good idea if the bounce is sustainable, or we are about ready to resume the downtrend, and yields back towards 5%. Technically, we are reaching the channel that has kept the 10yr pressured since spring of 2023. However, a break of the 50dma and channel resistance at 108'02 may be the trigger that actually squeezes the market much higher, sending yields falling at a rapid rate. We'd expect that on a "weak" jobs report and the US Dollar to fall precipitously from here. However, we must keep in mind that the headline number has come in higher than expected 7 of the last 10 reports in 2023. So, a weak NFP report is not a given!
CBOT:ZN1!
by ForexAnalytixPipczar
Ten Year Notes ($ZN) Bearish Impulse Remains IncompleteShort term Elliott Wave view suggests that cycle from 9.1.2023 high in Ten Year Notes ($ZN) remains incomplete. The decline is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 9.1.2023 high, wave 1 ended at 109’19 and rally in wave 2 ended at 110’07. The Notes extended lower in wave 3 as an impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 109’08 and wave ((ii)) rally ended at 109’2. The Notes then extended lower in wave ((iii)) towards 108 and rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 108’17. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 107’07 which completed wave 3. Wave 4 is in progress to correct the decline from 110’07. Potential target for wave 4 is 23.6 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave 3. This area comes at 107’29 – 108’11. Near term, as far as pivot at 110’07 high stays intact, expect rally in wave 4 rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Key Reversal Day in ZNThe 10yr notes market made a big reversal today following the CPI data. And this move could continue following the US retail sales tomorrow as economists are expecting a downtick in US consumer spending. We are far from a reversal, but given the big "outside day" bullish reversal candle near key long term support near the 109'00 level, we could see a much bigger reversal unfold in the market. Two days ago, the chart of the day was the USDCNH and the correlation of yields in the 10/30yr markets. If the above holds true, we could see a reversal lower in the USDCNH and perhaps the broad US Dollar market as well. To be extra sure that a key reversal is developing, we would be looking for a move back above the 50dma which capped the rally on Friday, September 1st.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by ForexAnalytixPipczar
Short-Term Outlook: ZN Bonds will decline to 109.16$.I. Bearish Momentum: The ZN bonds market has recently displayed signs of bearish momentum, with several key indicators pointing towards a potential downturn. One of the most notable factors contributing to this sentiment is the presence of strong seller volume, indicating that there is significant downward pressure on bond prices. II. Seller Dominance: Seller dominance can be a powerful indicator of market sentiment. When sellers outnumber buyers, it often leads to downward price movements. In the case of ZN bonds, the sellers have been in control, suggesting that the short-term bias leans towards a bearish outlook. III. Price Target: 109.16: Based on the current market conditions and the prevalence of seller dominance, it is reasonable to anticipate a decline in ZN bond prices. Our short-term price target is set at 109.16, which reflects the potential support level where prices may find temporary stabilization. IV. Intraday Resistance: 110.31: In addition to the seller dominance, there is a notable intraday resistance level at 110.31. This resistance level acts as an obstacle to any upward price movement and can further support the notion of a downward price trend. Traders should pay close attention to this level as it may provide an opportunity to enter short positions. In conclusion, the ZN bonds market appears poised for a short-term decline to the 109.16 price area, supported by seller dominance and the presence of an intraday resistance level at 110.31. As a bonds trader, it's vital to remain vigilant and adaptable to changing market conditions while implementing effective risk management strategies. The financial markets are dynamic, and staying informed is essential to making well-informed trading decisions.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by Gassem_futures
U.S. Economy Less Interest Rate SensitiveDespite the fastest rise in interest rates since 1981, and an inverted yield curve where short-term rates are much higher than long-term bond yields, the United States has not (at least yet) experienced the recession forecast by the vast majority of market pundits and economists. Why not? The relatively few contrarians that did not forecast a recession, including myself, had many reasons for a more optimistic view. However, the most critical reason appears to have been an appreciation of how the U.S. economy has changed over decades and become much less sensitive to interest rates. In the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, the U.S. economy was driven by housing and manufacturing. The only choice to finance a home was the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, provided by a savings and loan institution, that deliberately borrowed short-term from savers and lent long-term, taking considerable interest rate and yield curve risk. Further, there was no such thing as financial futures or interest rate swaps to allow for the efficient hedging of interest rate risk. Fast forward to the modern economy of the 2020s. The U.S. is an economy driven by the service sector, and services are considerably less sensitive to interest rate swings than housing and automobiles. Home mortgages come in every size and flavor, from floating rates to fixed rates. Mortgages are originated by specialists and then packaged and sold to pensions, endowments and investors willing to take the risk. There are no savings and loan institutions. Financial futures, swaps and options are available for efficient hedging and management of interest rate risk. In short, the U.S. economy does not dance to interest rates like it once did. Make no mistake, though; interest rate shifts have a profound impact on asset values, from equities to bonds, to housing. It is just that the impact on the real economy is much more subdued than it once was, and a rise in rates does not automatically mean a recession is around the corner. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Bluford Putnam, Managing Director & Chief Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available here: www.cmegroup.com **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CBOT:ZN1!Education
by CME_Group
Are yields about to blow out?The July monthly close in 10-year futures edged through rising trendline support, a level aligning with a 4.0% yield (highlighted with the yellow shaded ellipse). Is Treasury weakness through the end of July a precursor of continued selling and a blowout in yields? The CME's FedWatch Tool shows only a 20% probability the Federal Reserve hikes in September. Given resilient growth in the U.S. and shrinking Initial Jobless Claims, are those odds too low? The fear would be this probability rises to 50%. In such a case, 10-year futures would have incurred continued selling, finding added weakness due to the trend line break. Although there is additional support from a trendline from March 2002 and the Q4 2007 rally that will try to buoy selling, the Treasury complex is at a critical inflection point and a continued breakdown (or rising yields) would become a direct headwind to the risk-landscape, likely creating downward pressure in equity indices and precious metals. In the coming days, ISM Non-Manufacturing data for July is released Thursday at 9:00 am CT. This measures the services sector which has been extremely resilient and a source of stubborn inflation. On Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls for July are due at 7:30 am CT. The job market as remained tight, supporting wages, another factor of inflation. If these data points come in hotter than expected, one would imagine the 10-year sees continued selling. Regardless of the outcome, traders must keep an eye on 10-year futures in order to keep a pulse on the risk-landsacpe. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZN1!
by bill_blue_line
Getting Long on Long Duration..US 10-year note futures look primed for significant upside in the coming quarters as rates peak and the global economy rolls over. Weakening China economy already a sign of coming deflation while the lagged effects of rapid rate hikes in the US economy haven't even kicked in yet. Have a look at the usual signs of a topping business cycle. Highs in homebuilders and consumer discretionary stocks + massive inverted yield curve. You have 110 support on the 10-year going back quite a ways and the last time the COT was this out of whack, it marked a major low in bonds. 5% on 90-day bills (Money Funds) has also traditionally marked a peak in short-term rates. So $2k of downside vs. $30k+ upside. Excellent, just excellent R/R on this trade. Scaling into longs...
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by kaotic363