It was tricky to outline bias for this week due to the in-alignment in price action between yields and bonds but with more price action printed for me to analyse, it’s a clearer picture for next weeks trading.
Rangebound throughout the week with Monday and Wednesday being the days price action traded as a ‘inside day’, inside of a weekly fair value gap and macro...
Similar to yield, we have had a one sided approach in regards of price action with the weekly highs being made @ 116.18.
My projection for short term bonds is 114.25 double bottom sweep.,
Short Sweet Simple
Beautiful price action throughout last week!
Weekly range spans from 115.05 - 112.27 and we have failed to see a run in sellstops even though we have been in a continued bear trend. 113.10 was the area of interest as well as the weekly bullish order block that was mentioned last week and price action bounced of 112.27 like gang busters!
We have opened the new...
ZB1! (US Treasury Bond Futures) has witnessed a notable downtrend recently, prompting traders to seek insights into the underlying reasons for this decline. In this analysis, we will delve into various factors contributing to ZB1!'s downward trajectory.
Technical Analysis:
Breakdown of Support Levels: ZB1! has breached critical support levels on the price chart,...
Divergence with ZB showing strength suggests that yields could push lower to start the week before FOMC Wed
ZB showing strength comparatively with the Yields, which can suggest a retracement higher in bonds and reduction in yields before FOMC
More evidence of specifically ZB 30yr Note strength with it refusing to be repriced lower with the ZN/ZF. Suggests ZB can...
ZB showing strength comparatively with the Yields, which can suggest a retracement higher in bonds and reduction in yields before FOMC
More evidence of specifically ZB 30yr Note strength with it refusing to be repriced lower with the ZN/ZF. Suggests ZB can see higher price this week atleast in the beginning of the week
I find the position of Bonds very precarious going into this week. I've heard it said that Bonds are are in total "hands off" mode or "anything but bonds" is said right now. Nobody wants them... and if they fall fast it could literally cause a "Bond Crisis." So this is going to be an important watch.
In the shortest time frame I see a potential Leading...
Last week’s projection was short throughout the week and boyyy did we get shorts!
Monday got the ball rolling with a bearish decline of -1.67% with all further retracements not fulfilling the open of Monday’s trading, insinuating that the bulls are loosing strength. To confirm this bias, we can clearly see on Friday that smart money tried to sweep buystops and...
ZB: We got a sell signal based on COT Data in direction of weekly down trend. The correction of weekly trend ended. On daily chart we are in a down trend again. I am waiting for my entry pattern to trade this market short in direction of weekly down trend and cot data.
Notice when bonds decline, yields appreciate?
Thats due to the inverse correlation in price action.
115.10 weekly OB was respected this week but price action failed to close below indicating some form of retracement in the cards next week.
112.27 is another weekly OB that i have in mind that the algorithm could reprice down to with bullish yields on upto the...
ZB1 continues to trend lower, with a brief respite after finding support liquidity on Tue 03 Sep '13. This occurred alongside a favorable market environment following a drop in inflation. However, after Q1, the Fed announced that interest rates would remain fixed until 2025. This has led to a continuous decline in ZB1, targeting lower lows and aiming for...
I decided to mark up this chart for entertainment purposes as I do with all other of my ideas.
Since I firmly believe that the markets are due for a major correction, Bond prices(less risky assets) should rise.
In my humble opinion..............
I will be looking for a false break reversal sell around NY session time to poke above the high a tad and continue in the down direction.
This market is in a downtrend and is making lower highs and lower lows.
I will expect a deeper pullback at some time to retest the 200sma again.
This of course depends on how it plays out tomorrow
Thursday is the only day throughout the week that the bulls showed their strength. Overall Sentiment has been bearish throughout 2024 with things not looking to change anytime soon, especially if the long term highs @ 120.20 is not taken care of by the bulls.
116.21 daily liquidity void is where I have my eyes set to if we are to see yields continue it's bull...
After Monday's sell-off, bonds continued to trickle higher, running through the weekly highs @ 120.06 closing for the week @120.14.
Last week, I set out two bullish projections; 120.08 being T1 and 121.01 (now updated to 121.02) for T2. This weeks first target is 121.02 with a possibility for a continued bullish run up to the daily liquidity void starting from...
With bonds 90%* of the time doing the opposite to yields, its safe to say the bond market has a higher possibility of continuing the rally up to weekly swing high/low equilibrium @ 120.08 with a stretch target of 121.02.
Playing safe this week and only aiming for low hanging fruits as the overall price action for the tickers I analyse does not give me all the...
Looking to sell US Bonds at 118.18 limit, technical patterns showing possible resumption of downward pressure. Stop will be 120.01, target will be 117.23
