True market capitulation fear events are marked with semi generational fear levels of the charts
Were at a point of a resistance , but could easily slice through this level if we get increasing levels of uncertainty and panic entering the markets
Could we see 30? Possibly
VX had a big move down after CPI and also has the contract rollover. It's a ways off resistance now, but it'll most likely revisit the area at some point soon, so I'll be watching this to take a long on ES when it gets there.
Trade from 13th May (Mon) - 15th May (Wed)
UX1 has been compressed very low thru out this week (and very quiet) before key eco data next week. Model indicate that there is a Long VIX coming during the eco release. Hence win-lose odd ratio is in favor of long
Entry price reference: 13.55 or lower
UX1 Indicative range: Low - High 13.4 - 15 (spread 0.2 - 0.9)
Stop...
All of my trade setups will always depend on VX. It had been extremely weak since the market bottomed in April, but it was strong today and that put a lot of pressure on ES. VX rejected at the 13.85 level in had been watching. This is the make or break level for the short term IMO. If it's strong again tomorrow I'll be looking for puts on SPY/QQQ, but if it...
This is a trade recap from day 1 of my small account options challenge. Aiming for $50k profit with a MIL:1K account. Only made $33 today, but can't complain because of how choppy things were. Happy to have a green day and I'll slowly scale up my size and risk so I can have some bigger winners. Defense is the most important for now.
This is kind of a messy looking chart, I don't usually like to have this many lines. What I'm trying to illustrate is that VX has been slowly stair stepping down in a pretty controlled manner. I was surprised to see this morning's rally fail with VX doing this, but there is just no momentum or volume this week. Not sure what to make of all of it. The low volume...
VX is near all time lows, had a nice rejection today off the 14.05 level which has sparked a rally. I wouldn't want to be shorting SPY or anything else until this gains some more strength. It had been slowly grinding down in a stair stepping manner which usually means it's going to continue.
There's a lot of bears out there right now calling for a crash, and I thought we'd have continued downside as well after seeing VX break out of its major downtrend it has been in since 2022. However, in classic fashion VX hard failed within a few days and ES has already recovered a lot of the losses within a few weeks.
VX has continued to weaken since the market...
First things first: This is about the longer-term direction of the market. We're not advising against short positions here. In the short and medium term, they can lead to significant profits. However, given the seemingly fragile nature of the current markets, I'd like to point out the COT (Commitment of Traders) data and the corresponding levels in the Volatility...
Trade for 11th March (Mon) - 12th March (Tue)
UX1 went a bit of overshoot with Tech sold off, which also influenced by the weekly Option expiration (rather than Non-farm). However, there is no indication on fear in the market. Our model suggested it will still go compressing till Tuesday (post CPI data)
Entry price reference: 15.2 or higher (this is not at...
Trade for 4th March (Mon) - 5th March (Tue)
With such a hot market in place (still very strong momentum), even though spot vs UX1 has built a big gap on friday and in long run there is no sign of "fear" yet. However the contradict move for UX1 March on Friday indicate a long VIX model signal.
Entry price reference: 14.05 or lower
UX1 Indicative range: Low -...
With PPI data release on Friday (again.. there may be a surprise as like Wednesday CPI). Model is expecting a surge on UX1 (March future).
Entry point: 14.95 or lower (watch for how Market goes on Thursday and Friday APAC/EU morning session)
Profit take: 90bps from Entry or 15.8 (whichever hit). In particular if PPI is much hotter than expected (est. 0.1% on...
Trade for 12th Feb 2024 - 13th Feb 2024 (Mon and Tues)
With CPI data release on Tuesday, SPX is just slightly above the 5000 threshold (subject to how long it is able to hold) and SPX Monthly Option expiration on Friday. Model is very committed with a long vix signal which led an average lift of 50+ basis pt
Any "bad" CPI data point higher than expected could...
VIX Futures are currently sitting at the 200 SMA on the 1-Hour Timeframe at Resistance with Bearish Divergence a looks to be preparing to go down to fill the gap it created on the spot market, likely after the CPI release.
