XLY trade ideas
Leapfrog the wonderful market possibilities!!!Boing, boing, boing!!! Should be a wonderful bouncing decade!!!!! All that free food gotta go somewhere, right???
XLY/XLPLower low here. Still looking for target at the 0.618 retracement. Might be a good spot to look for longs in growth stocks.
Cyclicals can't make itThe pressure is immense. Consumer getting less confident, supply chain disruptions still on, producers prices pressing the margins. No happy ending here
XLY , SHORT ( 3rd attempt short ) Well title says it all lol , another close under the 50 and significant moving averages but hidden support . Hourly range around the 50 sma here ....
Need to take out the wizard down at 176 area , he seems to be running low on mana though one side will win eventually ...
Put my stop a tiny bit higher this time around ...
Entry 178.52
Stop 182.76
PT 170.5
XLY, SHORT ( 2nd Attempt ) Trying this again .
Stage 4 decline
Recent Death cross
series of LL
and market is in RTM ( red trading mode ) both spy and qqq below 21 ema's on daily .
After being stopped out today in the am , price was not able to close strong, closed near the low of the daily range .
Below the 10/21 ema's , 200 ema and 50 sma.
Entry 176.3
Stop- 180.81
PT - 165.9 ( de risk )
XLY , SHORTMarket is in red trading mode , SPY and QQQ now both below their 21 emas.
XLY , Slightly stronger than XLY but we still were not able to follow through on out HH , so far at least .
We also have LL's though too . Stage 4 downtrend looks plausible at this point , might be forming a range ?
Entry 176.09
Stop 179.68
PT 168.92, sell half and go BE on stop
XLY Ready for the next leg down?XLY has rallied to and thru previous support on decreasing volume. It is currently oversold and retesting the previous swing high.
The main holdings in XLY are:
- Amazon
-Tesla
(these two make up over 35%)
-Home Depot
-Nike
-McDonald's
-Lowes
-Starbucks
-Target
-Booking
-TJX
Consumer disposable income is hovering around the Jan 2020 lows (fred.stlouisfed.org )
Inflation expectations continue to rise (www.clevelandfed.org)
As always, this is just food for thought!
XLY/XLPFailing 1.272 extension. I ultimately expect to see this ratio back at the 0.618 retracement (sub 2.00). As long as this ratio is under pressure, staples > discretionary stocks. If you're wondering how to play this, look up the holding in each etf. Look for shorts in stocks in XLY and longs in stocks in XLP.
Cyclicals to benefit from retail and housingA rebound is due - strong retail sales and housing stats will support the sector despite the growing inflation concerns.
Closed: XLY March 18th 153/195 Short Strangle... for a 2.24 debit.
Comments: Taking profit here ... . Filled for a 4.02 credit (See Post Below). Closing it out today for 2.24 results in a 1.78 ($178) profit.
Weak consumer discretionaryCooling off consumer confidence affects the sector despite raise in wages. Inflation puts even more pressure on demand
Opening: XLY March 18th 153/195 Short Strangle... for a 4.02 credit.
Comments: At the top of my exchange-traded fund list for implied volatility rank at 92 with a 39-day of 39.8%. Selling the 17's on both sides. 4.02 credit on buying power effect of 17.73; 22.7% ROC at max; 11.3% at 50% max.
XLY/XLPNearing a support zone after a false breakout of the 1.618 extension. Could see a bounce in growth stocks end of month into Feb if it holds. Given the false breakout, I anticipate this support zone to ultimately fail in the coming weeks/months.
XLY/XLPQuite the move today in the XLY/XLP ratio. Well below the 1.618 extension now. Longer it stays below, the harder it'll be for growth stocks to move up imo.
XLY/XLPBack to the breakout level already. If you're bullish equities, you REALLY want to see this level hold.
CyclicalsThe consumer cyclicals are more likely to go deeper before an attempt to rebound since the spending isnt very good and this sector is a bit too expensive
Getting DefensiveThe Discretionary vs Staples ratio (captured via the $XLY and $XLP etf's) serves as one of many proxies for a potential "Risk Off" signal. While it had been "Risk On" for a number of months, the evidence is mounting that the trend has reversed and market participants are now moving towards more defense and less offense. Be cautious of a sudden and crowded rush for the exits.
XLY/XLPSolid move away from 1.618 resistance today. Appears the bull market may continue a little longer.
$XLY relative to SPY bullish breakoutXLY top weighted stocks : Tesla, HD, Amazon, MCD ..
Showing STRENGTH relative to SPY with bullish breakout of pennant and breakout of the recent down trend line....
While Apple and Microsoft are turning down, Tesla has been strong grinding it's way to over $800 and appears to be headed for ATH's next...
It will be interesting to see if we get a big breakout in XLY as we enter the end of year and Santa rally where consumer's are bound to increase their spending...
$XLY potential breakoutXLY Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF saw a buyer of the 12/17 187C for $2.5M in premium last week
Top holdings are AMAZON and TESLA. I like both these stocks from a technical perspective and a "cheaper" trade would be to go long XLY :) (Higher premiums on AMZN and TSLA).
From a technical perspective XLY has bullish Momo and a strong close above 21EMA. Looking for a $186 blue sky breakout this week and she can really fly.
Also worth noting 9/20 Wyckoff "more effort less result" which is a bullish indication - notice the high volume from the sellers (exhaustion) with price action staying above the 8/17 lows.
