Okay so real estate broke out of its down trend November of last year, and its been pretty much trading sideways ever since. Call me crazy but this level seems real important to me. In MY OPINION, not a fact, XLRE needs a strong push and close above this level to even touch this sector. Do I really even need to say what happens to XLRE if it's below this level.
AMEX:XLRE
Let's see if Real estate is going for a correctio or it has gas to go up again.
Looks like a stagnation or correction for a long period.
If FED starts printing, expect it to go higher.
My theory:
1. Correction into FED pause.
2. Quick downside into FED rate cut.
3. Start the bull run again once FED starts printing and Rates go below 3%.
Cheers
Real Estate looks to be in for a bumpy ride.
this ETF has just triggered a massive breakdown that suggest much more downside.
Why is real estate so weak? 2 words...Rising Yields.
Real estate investment trusts have struggled this year, and now some traders may look for a bearish move.
The first pattern on today’s chart of the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund is the series of higher lows in May, June and August. XLRE has struggled to hold the line in the past week, which may suggest it’s a bearish flag in the longer-term downtrend...
XLRE is trying to breakout of a small basing formation.
With rates surging recently one has to question a potential failure of this breakout, however if it does breakout there may be some significant momentum to the upside. Could this breakout coincide with a sudden drop in rates?
The low interest rates set by central banks in recent years have led to a real estate boom in the U.S. and Europe, but as interest rates begin to rise rapidly, banks and real estate companies may become insolvent. The commercial real estate market is in shock and transactions are not as frequent. The high prices of real estate will have to fall until rental yields...
Just something I'm watching for consolidation or retracement. This is not financial advice; this is purely for educational / learning purposes.
Daily TF:
Looking for a downside move on the real estate sector as its forming a rising wedge at the moment. While your at it follow my other account @dting5 I'll be posting there within the next month!
Hey all,
I entered a large-sized short on XLRE this morning, likely with an outlook of 2ish months. I believe XLRE either made a top this morning or is due to put in a significant top very soon. There are many reasons why I decided to do this, and I'll get into that-
Firstly, real estate is fundamentally very ugly right now; with 30Y mortgages at 6.58%...
Under normal market conditions, the fund generally invests substantially all, but at least 95%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index includes securities of companies from the following industries: real estate management and development and REITs, excluding mortgage REITs. The fund is non-diversified.
There is still plenty of downside on XLRE.
Interest rates are going to continue to drive demand down, combined with recession pressures and supply chain issues, the long term outlook on home is a huge crash and affordability issues in most major cities.
Even if rates return to an amicable percentage, inflation and supply chain issues will push new homes up...
Here's a chart I put together that illustrates what the big players are experiencing with Real Estate.
Larger firms trade the sector and if you were to be a 'buyer' since COVID, you would join a pool of others that the average participant is now losing money.
The trend is clear and it very well will likely keep going south while the Fed continues to raise rates.
