It seems we are about to ride the best wave (3 of 5); eurusd at market a nice sell opportunity for a new low, close to 1.01-1.02...imo
Post-French elections, the fairly obvious thing to do is to think about shorting the Euro here or its proxy, FXE. Unfortunately, we don't know exactly where FXE will open, but if the EURUSD chart is any indication, it will be in the vicinity of previous resistance at 105-ish. Similarly, we don't know exactly what this spread will price at, so I can't provide the...
With IV rank at over 46 on FXE, the expected move in 46 days is +/- 2.61 (Prices at 106.01-100.79). If I sell a Big lizard, my break even on the downside would be just below the expected move and we don't have risk to the upside (In case it wants to pull back to the 200 EMA). Sold the 103 Straddle with upside protection buying the 105 call with 46 days to...
With the IV rank above 50 on FXE its a good time to sell premium. I could do a Strangle or Straddle, but since we are at an extreme and very far from the 200 EMA I don't want the risk to the upside. So I will be making a at the money Put ratio spread. Selling 2 of the 102 Puts to finance one of the 104 Puts. This way we have a 69.5% chance to make money at...
FXE already closed gap... what to do now? Short eurusd Short gold Short oil
FXE might go up pretty soon and finish this last leg... eurusd usually is a 150-200 pips a week roughly, current week 105 pips, so it is very possible we see this last move upwards gl & gt
Let´s notice the shooting star in formation, so be cautious with long positions...it could send eurusd below 1.07...gl & gt
If these waves are correct, we expect a short lived move to the upside and once the small gap is filled, we will short it
Back to the well in the Euro since Vol is pretty low all over the place. This will extend my break evens as well on the entire position. Trade Setup: -1 FXE Mar 17 100/102/102/104 Iron Fly @ 1.32 DTE: 23 Max Win: $132 Max Loss: $68 Breakevens: 101.68 & 103.32 Trade Management: 25% Winner (~$33); Full loser or will roll out ITM/tested side if on...
Just looking for some premium around the market on these up days. Found an "okay" IV in FXE. Trade setup: - 1 FXE Mar 17 101/103/103/105 Iron Fly @ 1.37 DTE: 32 Max Win: $137 Max Loss: $63 Trade Management: 25% Winner or ~ $35; Full loser or will roll out ITM/tested side if on the dance floor. Green is profit zone and vertical black line represents expiration.
... for a 2.25 credit. Although general background IV in FXE isn't high here (it rarely is, comparatively speaking), it's high relative to where it's been in the last six months. Metrics: Max Profit: $225 Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $175 BE's at 98.75/103.25 Notes: Will look to manage at 25% max profit. Just trying to keep the theta coming in here with what...
Another breakout is possible for the euro dollar FXE. See the full newsletter here: forum.marketstockoptions.com
There are basically two variations on a "Super Bear," the first uses a short call to finance a long put debit spread, the other uses a short call credit spread to do the same thing, the difference being that a naked call Super Bear is an undefined risk trade, while a call spread Super Bear is defined. In this particular case, in order to be capital efficient, I'm...
With VIX at sub-14 levels and without much on the earnings calendar that is ideally playable with options from a premium selling standpoint, next week is likely to be a schnooze in the absence of a broad market volatility pop. Nevertheless, there are a couple of plays I might consider. MON: MON announces earnings on April 6th before market open. With an implied...
I don't frequently put on debit spreads, but here's an instrument in which I have a fairly firm directional bias and which, additionally, has extremely low implied volatility at this point in time, making it ideal for either a calendar or a diagonal, both of which benefit from expansions in volatility (which will occur in the instrument assuming further weakness...