A great way to play crude recovery is long CRAK - the oil refiner ETF vs short SPY (overall large caps). Refiners have better margins with low oil prices and looking at their margins is a good way to gauge the demand for physical. The ratio has broken 0.7 and I expect to see it at 0.9 or a 30% return as recovery gathers steam.
"Refinery stocks are not ripe just yet, especially with crack spreads as weak as they are. We're already seeing three of the top four holdings in CRAK begin to roll over, including Marathon, Velaro, and Holly Frontier. Phillips 66 is the outlier.
We continue to wait for CRAK to reach to range bottom with a confluence of crack spreads. If refiners continue to...
