How about an indicator that shows the days from the last data point of a statistical chart, such as PMI or any government state, to the current date. Showing the lag before the release of data. Just seems to me that in these difficult days that government may be fudging the numbers. Also holding back on the release of stats for public consumption. Maybe they...
ECONOMICS:GBGDPQQ Great Britain officially entered in Recession due to Two Consecutive Negative Quarters. The British economy contracted 0.3% on quarter in Q4 2023, following a 0.1% decline in Q3, worse than market forecasts of a 0.1% fall, preliminary estimates showed. The economy entered recession amid a broad-based decline in output, namely in services...
M2 is a classification of money supply. It includes M1 – which is comprised of cash outside of the private banking system plus current account deposits – while also including capital in savings accounts, money market accounts and retail mutual funds, and time deposits of under $100,000. Governments are not shying away from negative rates and printing money....
When Canada's unemployment rate starts increasing, the TSX is generally at an all-time high and starts crashing as the unemployment rate goes up. When will the top be in 2024? August? The unemployment rate has risen by 1% in the last year. Every time that happened, a recession followed. How bad will the crash be?
- The Bank of England (BOE) decided to deliver its #inflation medicine in a bigger dose at their recent monetary policy committee meeting. The bank made the shock decision to raise borrowing costs a half percentage point, taking the official rate to 5% ; double the size of the increase anticipated by most economists. BoE hiking interest rates to 5% , it adds...
"The Fed sees no recession until at leat 2027 and a very smooth landing" They are either ignoring blatant economic indicators Or straight out lying to the public, and the media. As this chart shows. When Housing starts go down and unemployment starts spiking a recession almost immediately follows . If I can see that with no economics background, no MBA, or...
A chart for Larry comparing the ratio of debt to GDP to gold.
Here's an intriguing observation I'd like to discuss. The increasing number of diamond 💎💎 alerts serves as a warning sign indicating an imminent significant market move. - What is the US2M? The M2 money supply is a measure of the total amount of money in circulation within an economy that includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits, and other liquid...
We still have distortions from the monetary liquidity introduced during the pandemic. The bottom indicator is the 12-month rate of change. We can see an extreme expansion in M2 and subsequent contraction. On the other hand, we can see that the M2 line still shows a big stock of liquidity compared to the standard deviations. Each standard deviation on the chart...
ISM surveys show that prices are rising ; during April services and manufacturing prices advanced 10% on average. The problem? Look at the chart comparing these price indexes to the traditional CPI inflation reading, ISMs are usually forward looking. Inflation 2.0 is coming...
Gather around....I have short story to tell Once upon a time, in a town called Sweetville, there lived a child named Lily, whose love for cookies knew no bounds. From the moment she took her first bite, a magical spell was cast upon her taste buds, and she became powerless to resist the sweet temptation. Lily's days revolved around cookies. She couldn't stop...
China Caixin PMI Summary Surveys completed by 650 SME's in China have indicated that China's smaller manufacturing and service providers remain in expansionary mode in April 2024 with all three data releases coming in as expected or higher than expected with readings >50 = Expansionary. Manufacturing - 51.4 Increased from 51.1 in Mar 2024 to 51.4 in Apr...
Sharing as a separate chart to Macro Monday 45 so we can update this separately. PLEASE REVIEW MACRO MONDAY 45 China Caixin Services PMI - Mar 2024 ✅52.7 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary) ⏳ April Figures released today (pending) ▫️ Increased from 50.2 in Sept 2023 to 52.7 in Mar 2024 ▫️ Increase/decrease from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to ??? in Apr 2024 – Figures...
Macro Monday 45 The China Caixin PMI (Services and Composite released Today Monday) Last week week we looked at the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI which will revise today with its updated readings that were released last Tuesday. We will also look at the China Caixin Services PMI and the Caixin Composite PMI (a combination of the Services and...
In this chart you can see the interest rate differential for the FED versus the ECB. I have outlined a possible scenario in rate cuts highlighting a bearish Euro/bullish US Dollar. If the ECB will cut rates before the FED it will enlarge the differential, which is a bearish outlook for the Euro.
Macro Commentary Cash will continue to be forced into assets either through investing or during the transaction/exchange of commerce. The printing won't end Until there's real change in fiscal policy and the new normal may be at the same adjusted rate during the 2008 collapse. People who do not trade their fiat for assets or income generating sources will get...
Fed balance sheet + BOJ balance sheet adjusted to USD + PBOC balance sheet adjusted to usd - Fed reverse repo - Treasury general account + Assets held at money market funds Looks as if 1% rise in liquidity = 5% Rise in Crypto Michael Howell thinks there is a 6 week lag with liquidity and Bitcoin, and 6 month Lag with Liquidity and Gold Only Allows a...
The 1-Month Treasury may or may not decrease around 2024-01 to 2026-01.