The Federal Reserve left interest rate unchanged at the meeting on Wednesday, but surprisingly saw December hike appropriate despite persisting slack on inflation front. As expected, the Fed set a green light to balance sheet cut, amounted 4.2 trillion. dollars, most of which has been amassed after the 2008 mortgage crisis. According to new economic forecasts, 11...
EUR/USD: Fed balance sheet unwinding is largely priced in We expect the Committee to announce the gradual normalization of its balance sheet today. Despite lower inflation readings and other headwinds – increased geopolitical risk, fiscal fights in Washington and the unknown economic consequences of the latest natural disasters – Fed officials have, until...
September FED meeting US fixed income and stock markets are preparing to lose cushion as Fed may announce the onset of balance-sheet cut at the meeting on Wednesday. Termination of reinvestment policy and a smooth shedding of securities means a complete switching off of the "rescue mode” which has been regulator’s state for about a decade. The market...
roadmap for the next four months or so keep crankin those rates yellen! if the fed starts reducing the balance sheet faster than expected, the markets would capitulate. in any case crypto seems a good bet given draghi and kuroda literally cannot stop printing money. inflation will hit us eventually, probably 2019-2020. then we'll have transitioned to an era of...
Gold’s technical charts show how the financial markets are preparing for the Friday’s fundamental events. The picture is even considered by the Dukascopy analysts a proper example of educational material for the books. The rate recently reached the upper trend line of a massive long term ascending channel, where it was guided by a medium term ascending channel....
EUR$ LONG: 1. Daily support base formed ABOVE previous channel highs at 1.17 2. Fundamentally driven breakout on Friday (draghi vs yellen sentiment) should provide continued bullish EUR within the supply/demand complex. 3. Broadly eurozone crisis discounting contoinues to be faded out of the market. I expect RM names to begin pricing the ECB/FED convergence...
The German economy has revealed signs of slowdown, despite the widespread economic pickup in the euro area and the concomitant strengthening of the euro. A number of data released on Friday pointed to a slowdown in exports and imports in the second quarter. Investment optimism also declined, probably due to the strengthening of the euro, overshadowing the...
Today Trader should be careful at the time of FED chair yellen and Ecb president Mario Draghi speech. There may be a chance of big bullish or bearish waves in forex market let me discuss about Eur-usd which is long term bullish but yellen words may change its direction. There is a good opportunity to buy Eur-usd around 1.1750 area with stop loss at 1.1650 and take...
US joint military exercises in South Korea which risked to run across ultimately response from North Korean leader, has been set off. It may be a new reserve for exacerbation of the geopolitical situation on Korean peninsula. The market so far does not lend itself to provocations, the VIX index is in negative territory, gold is showing sluggish attempts to return...
So big focus on this market right now. There are some reasons why Euro goes higher actually, but this is not forever. I see this like strong political thing. The fact is ECB will end QE by the time and rising rates may earlier. Meanwhile Trump will fight for his reforms. I am really curious what will hapend. Does Mario Draghi know more?
The common currency has trimmed down losses against the dollar after a weak start on Tuesday, as investors continue to get rid of dollar positions while waiting for the cautious tone of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen at tomorrow's meeting. Interest rate futures rule out possibility of the rate increase on Wednesday meeting, as consumer inflation, according to official...
Oil prices break into green area expecting that the OPEC meeting will not be spent in vain and the participants will find ways to pare their production capacities The weekly report of Baker Hughes showed that the drilling activity rested on some ceiling, as the growth of active drilling rigs ceased. Last week, their number fell from 765 to 764 units. After US oil...
The US Dollar has been under pressured for the whole of 2017 even with the rate hike from the FED recently. The sentiment in the US and thus the Dollar remains bearish especially with Trump as the president and his administration. Looking at the weekly perspective of the Dollar Index, 89.62 remains a key level for the dollar. A break below this level will...
Hey guys, Its' been raining all the day so put your likes on this to save me from melancholy ;) So today we got a manufacturing PMI in the euro area signaling a rise to the highest since 2011, as European factories increase the demand for labor to absorb the growing number of orders. The index of purchasing managers from IHS Markit rose to 57.4 points in June...
Couple scenarios to consider here depending on the tone and remarks made by Yellen regarding monetary policy. Currently USD has been moving up but the move will only continue if Fed chair Yellen reinforces her comments made 2 weeks ago when they decided to raise rates again and stated they were still on track and serious about another rate hike in 2017 either in...
After the fat lady/man song yesterday, we have seen a strong correction from the "flash crash". Even though the US dollar is steady ( has fallen a little today)...gold remans in a tight band between 1250.50 and 1253 has done for past 4 hours or so. To me this clearly suggests that investor are waiting . Waiting for Yellen's speach. However Yellen is not...
Expecting a bullish push with Fed speak in the early portion of the week, but if/when data disappoints, this thing should take a hard hit and head towards new lows.
With all the news and risk events that took place yesterday - a worse than expected CPI and retail sales, followed by a hawkish Yellen - some traders might have experienced some losses due to the 180 degrees change in sentiment; while some may have been left confused on the outlook of the US Dollar. We shared this analysis on the US Dollar Index before all the...