If you kept your eyes only on big tech and growth stocks, you might have missed that many sectors had fairly good advances this week. The sector chart supports the thesis that there is an outsized rotation in progress that is presenting as a correction, but that there is still a level of support in the broader equities market. The top two sectors, Energy (XLE)...
These important sectors have not been booming for over a quarter (no Robinhooders around these sectors, and not worth a Reddit meme) - - Telecommunications: T, VZ, TMUS - Quick service fast food restaurants: MCD, YUM, WEN - Consumer Staples (ETF is XLP): household products PG, CL, CLX: food MDLZ, GIS
Energy (XLE) led for a second week in a row as crude oil prices continue to rise and optimism for economic recovery to bring demand back to oil and gas as transportation, travel and leisure sectors bounce back. Technology (XLK) and Health (XLV) led for Thursday as Energy pulled back for a day. However, Energy bounced back up to the week's highs on...
Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU) are the top sectors for the week. Ouch! None of the sectors ended the week with gains as the S&P 500 pulled back -3.31%. Utilities led as the market opened on Monday morning. Communications (XLC) took a very brief lead on Tuesday, but the Real Estate took the top spot. Consumer Staples (XLP) attempted to take the lead on...
Above the 200 DMA, however the MA remains downward sloping. Low P/E, low growth, consumer staples stock. Risk:Reward is ideal. Substantial upside, FVE given 5yr DCF EBITDA Exit : $88 per share
🛒 Consumer staples is dealing with a remarkable situation on the macro front which we have discussed at earlier opportunities (see ALPHA PROTOCOL: SEEKING IMMEDIATE EXTRACTION). One should be wary of the immediate risk for a waterfall as consumer staples hang onto the highs by a fingernail. After completing the 5 wave sequence to the topside, clearly the end...
Remember that narratives will be constructed every day in financial media based on emotions. The problem with this strategy is that they have already happened! It has already shown up on the chart. So today, we are going to look at one of the most important intermarket relationships. That is Consumer Discretionary vs Consumer Staples, or XLY/XLP. Let’s hop onto...
It ought to be known by everyone that it is necessary in certain recessions for dead cat bounces and over a typical 5 quarter economic cycle down, it is not uncommon for 1 or 2 of those quarters to be bullish. I suspect that the strength around all the discounted earnings from August is mostly baked in now. The concern, in the MT and LT, is the 2's 5's...
Consumer Discretionary vs. Consumer Staples remains in "risk off" mode.
The following diagram illustrates the breakup of a globalisation advance: Since the retrace in VIX has found a hard floor into the 25 lows, we may characterise the advance as an endgame for our economic cycle purposes. Now the erroneous nature of Volatility advancing can be seen. The effect of demobilising the consumer will weigh heavy on Equities, not...
With XLY vs. XLP on everyone's radar as it eyes new highs, what is Industrials vs. Staples saying about the strength of this risk on rally?
COVID-19 resulted in Online Retail ETFs reaching new all-time highs on a relative & absolute basis. Online Retail/SPY has been known to move similarly to CD/CS. We've seen CD/CS break diagonal resistance, but remains below its June 2018 ATH. EW CD/ EW CS is still heavily lagging and well below its June 2018 high
This cap-weighted ratio is trekking higher as the S&P 500 stalls below 3,000
XLY vs. XLP Trading above its March high, would like to see the diagonal trend line break to the upside in support of the bull case
... for a .40 credit. Notes: Another "not a penny more" short put with a resulting cost basis of 51.60/share if assigned. As with my XLU and HYG not a penny mores (See Posts Below), will look to roll "as is" for a credit on at least a quarterly basis until assigned or that's no longer productive. Current yield of 2.99%; $178 annualized on a one lot ... . This...
Defensive vs SP500 - Consumer Staples, Uitlities and Real Estate
Before we get started, I just wanna say that the method used here is an extension of an article written in 2015 on Stockcharts called "This Signal Is Bullish And Rarely Fails". Worth a read to better, it's a short article with more depth, but the forecast is outdated. In short: Consumer sentiment always leads the Stock market. Okay, so what's going on here?...