The market lately has been very unstable to say the least and has been willing to jump onto any boat it can in order to avoid inflation, However the price action we are seeing on the 30 YR seems to indicate that Inflation fears are overblown and that the Value if the Dollar index will likely remain stable. While looking through the charts i noticed that there...
... Feel free to come up with your own preferred narrative. Here is the the Original Post; This current post; is generally just a cleaned up version of the original.
US10Y broken out of rising wedge.
US10Y - Trying to reach 2.80% by September 2021. Goodbye Mr Stock market.
US10Y yield. On track within rising wedge to meet yellow trendline. If it breaks yellow line, it's 'Goodbye Mr Stock market'.
... for now. ... and the Bonds; The old T-Note post;
US10Y- About to explode upwards with a Democratic clean sweep. Brace yourselves. Once, the U10Y climbs beyond a point within the next 3-6 months, expecting the financial markets to crash.
US 10y Treasuries- Bearish breakout. Bad omen for Stock market. Bullish for Gold.
Until recently, the USD10 Yield vs. US Fed Fund Rate's spread was always a positive number. This chart tracks episodes when the US Fed Funds Rate was at the same level as now.
With TLT at nosebleed heights the question obviously becomes, is it time to switch into equities yet? As you can see TLT (red line) reaches fever pitch levels almost always at excellent entry points into equities, going back all the way to the GFC this has held true. TLT for what it's worth is also extremely extended, driven to these heights on trade fears,...
There are some important signs of correction scuch as new top formation and the price presence on steep slope of diagonal support line. The price existence in a pseudo symmetrical triangle is confirmed in also H1 and 30 min. I will be happy if you share your ideas in comments. Best regards
Does anyone else see a simile with August 2015? In that month Usd-Cnh jumped from 6.20 to 6.60, S&P 500 -15%, copper -9%, and Eur-Usd has reached a gain of over 700 pips. “China may stop purchasing US agricultural products and energy, reduce Boeing orders and restrict US service trade with China. Many Chinese scholars are discussing the possibility of dumping US...
Despite the roller coaster in the stock markets, the treasuries could still be pricing in a contraction in the economy. The higher the 10 Year and 30 Year Treasury prices go, the lower the rates get on the longer end of the yield curve. With the current setup in the US 30 Year T-Bond, there is support on the Minor Pivot Stack and the Monthly Pivot Range high....
A big picture of what history indicates will happen next. Nothing new here for the Macro people.
The 10 Year has just bounced off near the 120'20'0 Resistance on 1D and based on the neutral 1W action (RSI = 46.325, STOCH = 54.180, Highs/Lows = 0.000), it should reverse towards the 119'02'5 support. Our short's TP is 119'09'0.