US10Y is ready to fly again. After 42 weeks in wedge, its time to goes high.
WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered three important information : 1) a pullback followed by a nice recovery 2) a weekly closing for the first time just above the clouds but... 3) an hanging man pattern (usually "bearish"" ) and which should be validated or invalidated by the next weekly candle ! The 50 % Fibonacci retracement ƒ 2.0890 % has been...
WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a pullback towards the former downtrend line which hold and which should now be seen as the new support level. The 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 1.7930 % has been filled for a second time in a row; there is only a "little" interrogation mark about RSI price action which is not showing a convergence but rather a...
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US10Y 1-2-3 bearish reversal or 2B bearish reversal? Short term broke red down trend line to head higher, but, eventually a later year bearish 1-2-3 reversal pattern or 2B reversal pattern?
I think we will see a pump in the Yields, the DXY, and a decline in Commodities. I posted the wrong ticker before but this is the correct one so if you entered the trade on TYD get out of it and enter TYO instead.
God luck with this potential bull flag trade i will be here in the premarket tomorrow morning to buy.
Bonds all across the world, across all different spectrums (from gov bonds to junk bonds) have been rising (their yields falling). This is a signal that there are deflationary pressures and that people are searching for yield in an environment with few opportunities. There are other reasons too, but overall this isn't the best signal. Clearly big corporations and...
Natural Gas has already been bullish over a trend duration (3 months or more) as it recovered from the Covid Global Deflation. Now Natural Gas is quietly setting up for a bullish TAIL Breakout, i.e. the start of the next bull market in energy and commodities. To call the next commodity supercycle is a little early but we can see several factors hinting at that...
Bonds have reached a very important level. For now this seems like a *logical* place for the *anti-reflation* / deflation trade to end, and for the risk on trade to be back. I am more on the disinflationary (very low inflation) camp, however bonds have risen substantially and it might be time to take some profits before the resume lower. I don't think we will have...
10y UST yields are collapsing. Why. According to financial media - nothing. "Things look gloomy." "Upside on economic rebound priced in." "Supply/demand for USTs" (that last one is technically correct, but is so incredibly basic/generic that it can be categorized under the same → you people have no idea why, and you're just talking for the sake of talking.) So...
M1 : Levels to watch : Upside : 1.80 Downside : 1.4880 W1: Last week closing below Tenkan-Sen D1 : In an ongoing downtrend channel, currently below TS and MBB; currently traded around the top clouds support zone and still above the middle level of this downtrend channel. H4 : Last recovery attempt towards 1.69, failed !Below KS, MBB and TS. Bottom of the...
M1 : 50 % Fib Ret @ 1.8060 % nearly reached, high seen so far being 1.7740 % in March. W1 : Sideways 1.4840 % -1.7740 % trading range Currently traded below Tenkan-Sen (conversion line) D1 : Still under the influence of a former double top formation and failure to hold above the clouds is likely to trigger further downside in the coming session (s) Interesting to...
H4 : Triangle target filled @ 1.6860 %. Ongoing reversal in progress Watch, on H4 closing basis, Mid Bollinger Band (@ 1.6280) as first support indicator H1: After having briefly broken the uptrend channel (wrong breakout, doji top followed by a long black candle ! the 10 Y is still in this ongoing uptrend channel with a first attempt to downside breakout, which...
M1 : After having nearly reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 3.25% to 0.3620 % move, high being 1.7740 % !, the ongoing current monthly price action is showing a potential trend reversal in progress, which could trigger, tomorrow, on a monthly closing level, a "DARK CLOUD COVER" (Wait for confirmation) W1 : Double top price action in progress with its...
If price action remains in Uptrend channel.
D1 : Ongoing bearish (yield) price action calling for the double top target @ 1.4040 % which coincides with the Ichimoku clouds support area. W1 : Successive black candles; Tenkan-Sen under attack ! Looks like a mirror effect... M1 : Long term trend reversal in progress (should be confirmed on a monthly closing basis !)
EUR/USD is having a rare day in negative territory. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2006, down 0.24% on the day. The euro has been in fine form in April, racking up gains of 2.3%. The currency has made up most of the ground lost in March when EUR/USD fell by 2.8%. The direction of the US dollar has, to a large degree, been dependent on 10-year US Treasury...