With the help & manipulation from CPI data, the DXY is now pushing within our technical bias. We saw in the previous days the $103 low's get taken which would have trapped in new sellers, now CPI has come in & liquidated them. Previous Inflation Rate: 3.9% New Inflation Rate: 3.8%
Gold moving very choppy to the upside, despite a positive NFP figure. We're seeing a trap form which'll keep enticing new & new buyers into the market, before we see a reversal. Waiting for a break of structure once our 'selling confirmation' zone is hit, which is when we will short the market. Till then I'm sitting on the sidelines📉
During the previous week the market was pricing released job data in the US. Increasing unemployment rate boosted investors expectations that the Fed's rate cuts are round the corner. Also it has been confirmed through the Fed Chair Powell`s testimony to the Senate, with wording “at some point” during the course of this year. Although, initially, it was expected...
US Non Farm Payrolls Data Actual: 223K🔺 Expected: 160k Previous: 177K
US Yields have topped back in October 2023 with sharp leg down, which is from Elliott wave perspective first leg A of a deeper A-B-C decline that can send the price back to the former wave 4 area to 3.25% - 2.5%. At the same time, we can see USdollar Index - DXY also turning down due to a positive correlation with Yields, we just saw some divergence in...
Re-analysed our entire wave count as Gold decided to go ahead & create a complex Wave 5 completion. Instead of finishing Wave X at the 2023 high of $2,141 we saw a steeper move, creating a new all time high at $2,165 taking out a lot of sellers. ⭕️Wait For A BOS (Selling Confirmation) At $2,123. ⭕️Overbought & Choppy Market Conditions. ⭕️DXY Strength Incoming Soon.
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, which we gave a buy signal on last time (January 24, see chart below): Yesterday it touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line for the first time since the February 05 break-out. During the previous leg of the 1.5 year Channel Up, the 1D MA50 held all the way until the formation of the...
Gold is VERY, VERY CLOSE to our POI & supply zone. If this short position goes accordingly, looking to bank a potential 2,000+ PIPS profit from this move🦾
Based on the moves from Treasury yields during the previous week, it seems that Fed's rate cuts are coming. This is what the market is saying, however, we still need this input from the Fed. At this moment, it is irrelevant whether it will be at March`s FOMC meeting or later within the course of this year, the important thing is that the market is now certain...
Seen a very nice bullish push up on Gold today, with market moving 200+ PIPS. Still expecting a slow & gradual move into our $2,100 POI before we consider shorting the market back down again & buying it back at a cheaper price!
We are still bearish on Gold mid term & waiting for buyers to take out liquidity & reach our POI. Only then will we look to enter sells. Currently not in any short term buy's, but will keep an eye out to see if market structure offers an opportunity. Our main bias is still sells🤙🏽
US01MY just crossed-up US10Y, which -if history is any guide- indicates an impeding long-term crypto market reversal and signals the start of a new bull-cycle . Given my previous prediction for BTC to bottom out at $9.5k - $10k, I expect a strong market shake-up in the upcoming 2-4 weeks . Good luck all.
We are still bearish on Gold, but still looking to short from $2,100+ due to all the pending liquidity sitting above. If Gold closes below the current Wave W low, we can look for short re-entries from that price point. But as of now I am more confidence in this analysis. Will look for new, short-term buy positions if market structure offers an opportunity to do...
It seems that the market would have to wait longer than initially anticipated for the first rate cut. The FOMC meeting minutes revealed during the previous week showed that Fed officials are optimistic regarding the outcome of already taken monetary measures, however, they would like to be certain that the inflation is clearly on the road toward the targeted 2%,...
During the previous period investors had been pretty confident that the Fed might cut interest rates in May, however, the latest published inflation data for January made them rethink expectations. Namely, as January inflation came higher than expected, the reaction of the Treasury yields was imminent one to the upside. This move was additionally supported by the...
Gold is sitting at a very crucial price point. If it breaks above the last high of $2,033, we'll change bias back to bullish for the mid term, back to targeting the $2,100 price price point. Our sell position currently running in 500 PIPS profit🦾
The collapse in Treasury bonds in 2021-2023 now ranked among the worst market crashes in history. Since March 2020 to 2023 fall, Treasury long term bonds with maturities of 10 years or more have plummeted over 40% while the 30-year bond had plunged over 50%. That's just under losses seen in the stock market when the dot-com bubble burst. The bond rout was worse...
Inflation is finally cooling off as inflation gradually loosened its grip on Wall Street and the economy in 2023, raising hopes for a gentler Federal Reserve and further gains for the market in 2024. Stocks rallied to their best 9-weeks stripe over the past 20 years in November and December, 2023 (so-called 'Santa Rally') as investors raised their bets that the...