Huge move down starting late '18 to early Sep '19 (from 3.25% to 1.43%). Whist overall the US 10 yr yield will likely fall over time, a short term retracement bounce to 1.86%, then possibly 2.125%.
Gold is such a haven asset and this chart is showing exactly how the current market is doing so, and the risk appetite isn't so nice compared to Gold! Again, Don't blame the FED! This is because of Donald Trump and his trade war, so don't blame China either. However, the equity market is struggling to keep the prices as high as possible and not pricing in the...
Good afternoon. This is the chart that everybody yelling about. May this year price close below monthly support. Today (Aug 2019) we have a green 9 and doubts. The importance of this level is significant, but first let's compare 1991 vs 1995 vs 2000 vs 2008 vs NOW(2019) You can do it yourself and come to any conclusion you will, but I want you to know that...
When SP500 dividend yield greater than 10 Year US bond yield, stocks, in general, look cheap on a relative basis ... So as the chart suggests, in this current cycle only, when this happed lead to a long period of a recycle bull market for stocks...
Almost all USD pairs seem to be in trouble and breaking huge long term trend lines. This chart seems to confirm it from another angle
Looks like loan officers will be selling 2 and 3 percent fixed mortgages before long. ;) This is an update to my previous idea: If you're a fan of Fibonacci, then you're already well aware of the significance of the 1.618 and .618 lines. If you're not. Here's a super simple version. .618 retrace is the most likely level to see a "bounce" if the overall trend...
Here we are witnessing the minimum target from a ABC perspective since the January highs at 2.799%. This sequence from here on should be viewed as corrective and will be a shallow retrace in the broader trend. There is little support here so the key levels to watch in play remain 2.286%. We may see some choppy waters here, however, the potential to retrace as...
It is very clear from the monthly chart here that this has been an uptrend for some time now. The 2 year yields have started to see some widely anticipated profit taking just shy of the 2.618 extended target for the 3rd wave. The market has since retraced and held the 23.6% in a corrective 4th wave process. Time to start paying attention to yields again for 2019.
Looks like we can anticipate another impulse wave on US treasury yields as we follow our thesis that the US10 yield will kiss the upper boundary historical trendline before we see a reversal. Implications here will likely result in a rebounding/consolidating stock market and a strengthening of the USD against many major currencies while markets undergo major...
Measured moved based on H&S break has this moving approximately 10%. We're currently looking at a retest of the break, but it's fading fast. When combined with the record net-short interest here, this could be a fast move, and could even invert the yield curve in one fell-swoop. If so, this would be reminiscent of the 2000 yield curve inversion, which happened...
This idea supports the previous interest rate outlook. I advise you to book profits on the idea given last September (see related) earlier than set target at 116'07 and this is why: The long-term trend together with the previous low offers strong support for the price and could reject the drop in the 117-118 area. In this area the wave C = 1.272 of wave A and this...
At the end of last September I called for the drop in the 10-year US T-notes with quite aggressive target (see related idea). In this and the next update I came to the thought that the drop could be over earlier as rates are reaching important resistance level. Despite the aggressive tone on the rate rise in US, I think the upside is limited based on this...
Hi guys. Here's my chart on US10. Hi. I think it's hitting a good support zone and I would consider a long position if not right away then at least some cautious accumulation from here. If you criticize this idea please don't be too hard. I'm working hard to become better at this. Thank you very much indeed and have a nice day.
We find different trendlines and an important support at this point. If the stock market keeps rising we might have a lower price, also because commodities and bonds trend inversely (1) we could have a small change in the trend, because both oil and gold have fallen. 1. Murphy, J. J. (2015). Trading with Intermarket Analysis: A Visual Approach to Beating the...
Take care & analyzed it again - it`s always your decision ... (for a bigger picture zoom the chart) This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!! Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ... Best regards :) Aaron
treasuries coiling up for another move. momentum on 10y crashing even with feb no-hike odds at 98%. hawkish minutes meeting next month could very well send yields ripping. good watchlist candidate.