Ok people, things are about ready to boil over here. Everyone is holding their breath and crossing their fingers that all the economic data dropping first week of June 'won't be as bad as expected' so the market will then rebound. It's all hopes and dreams though. It's gonna be worse, decent chance of MUCH worse. If we get to the end of June, and I have to sell...
Both markets holding right at the primary pre-crash support. Seems it's getting harder and harder for people to short below this level. Even TVIX dropped to $108 and popped right back up to $120 no problem. Very sticky support. Still waiting for the pop. Every day further we get past the down-channel, without falling back below means the odds of a market crash...
Lots to love today. We finally got the upside trend breakout we've been looking for for two weeks now haha. 1st bar today punctured channel and closed exactly on the support and second bar brought it home for us. As promised, I did reup a little here on all my short positions based on that breakout. This is a small but critical TVIX milestone for all the...
This is a joke of a bull run. SPX, VIX and TVIX should not all be setting new local highs together lol. Gonna be a weird week I'm sure. Please have more faith in my yellow channel line than I did, once it breaks that line and holds I'll be upping my position further (strong trend change signal). Until then in holding pattern. Price floating around between...
Note the two days previous.. .massive unloading of TVIX... the hedge against sharp downturns and VIX jumps. Note what's happening now... quietly loading back up on TVIX. Are we getting ready for another pull back in general? The market does seem to have entered the irrational exuberance phase that's for sure.
I'm not invested here, just trying to track my sleeper SPX short signal! Not even sure how these indicators play outside stocks but lets find out :). ADX sitting pretty for a strong trend change. MACD already signaling it. DPO and ROC set to spike up. RVI tends to be a leading indicator for RSI and this is a kind of divergence I've never even seen in stocks but...
I've been shit-posting all over about waiting for Friday so looks like tomorrow is the big day! I've clearly been a bit early to the party here but man, all indicators holding strong B) RVI/RSI primed to pop. Love that ADX spike! Market buying edged up (TRIN) but still soft buy zone... zombie bull.
Not much to update, touched up the new support channel zones for reference. The darkest hour is just before sunrise!
At the bottom, everyone is freaking out and selling... VIX is spiking, TVIX is at $1,000, there's "blood on the streets"... it's a level of selling that is capitulation... people are finally suffering too much to hold on to their shares and they sell them... mass selling happens at that moment. But so does mass buying. The smart money buys at that level. Now......
Alright guys another successful day! But wait... SPX set new highs!? AHHH time to meltdown and unload everything! Not exactly. New SPX highs should be followed by new VIX lows and ESPECIALLY 2x TVIX lows in a proper bull market. This has yet to retest May 12th low and is sitting halfway between two major supports and just under the diagonal support and within...
I expanded the kill zone a bit here guys, nailing the swing up was always a bit overly optimistic :). 2nd bar today kissed the top horizontal support channel and held above the bottom diagonal support channel. Still right on track. Fundamentals vs the Fed, lets see who wins. The indicators are betting on fundamentals coming out on top.
There is undeniable toxicity in the economy. Fear sent the TVIX to an over 800% bullrun followed by market calming. So, is it over? Can we expect another run from TVIX? The answer: Yes! One only has to look at the economics to see what is coming and already here. Today, we are looking at some of the worst numbers in economic history. I've always said that the...
I guess lets wait for next week and see if I'm right. So far I had expected it to raise a lot higher by now. I think by ramp projection is a week or two early maybe but I still think we've seen the bottom until we cross the red-line at this point. Not much to do but wait. I'm loaded, plenty of room if it spikes to 3200 too. Probably worst case before crash, if...
Next week should give us a weekly TD 9. Equities are in the process of finding a mid term top. I expect Vol to spike in the next few weeks to come.
Walking right into the kill zone. POC should pull the price up along with this news cycle turmoil for the next couple weeks (starting tomorrow guys!). Here's the treasure map:
MACD looking to flip. ADX looking to flip. DPO very high. RSI as VPT screaming sell. RSI and RVI screaming sell. SMAs weighing heavy on market and indicating a sell. POC under price and signaling sell. Really hard to make any kind of bull case from technicals here. This is my last rundown on SPX before the creash probably (will start tomorrow and continue...
Checkout that upward support trend from May 12th low. That is particularly interesting given the nature of the TVIX to constantly fall lower. Lookout for ADX crossing the DPO, better the divergence the stronger the trend. Also lookout for RVI crossing and holding just above RSI, could be a leading indicator here of upward movement. Those indicators are really...