In this screencast, I show how shorting on a 2H time frame is optimal for me to take a controlled loss. I explain where I see the big trends and some smaller trends.
Note that this is not a prediction, or recommendation to short. I use a very different methodology which is not 'just on the charts', though at times in simplifying things it may appear like a...
Mario Draghi made an honest assessment of the Eurozone today, which wasn't rosey. The big money wasn't happy with this. Stock markets and Forex around the world were thrown into some degree of chaos. All stock indices were affected - proving once and for all - that we are all part of a global economic system. What happens in the Eurozone or in America, simply does...
The India50 is not one that's often talked about. I show how I estimate the price action and probabilities for a short position. As always if anybody is getting into this, prepare to lose! This is a loser's game - we can't win without losing, end of story.
Gold has had a good run north on the daily time frame and is coming into a powerful zone of congestion. It's not looking great for going long on the 1D now. There are opportunities for shorting on lower time frames but those do not look too good either. Possibly - just possibly - there may be more profit taking on this around this time. I'd be cautious with this one.
I've been stalking coffee in the background from many weeks. It's looking pretty ripe about now for taking a controlled loss (aka stop-loss). When coffee moves, it really moves. This is a longer time frame trade, which I do not usually get involved in - but it's probably time for me to get involved in one or two of these.
EURUSD has presented different opportunities and conflicting signals. 'Everybody' wants to know which way it is going. This is the wrong question.
In this screencast I show different opportunities relative to trends on different time frames. Where price is going, depends heavily on which time frame trend you're stalking - and whether you'r willing to take a...
I'm looking at a possible triple top on EURAUD on the 3D time frame. I do this because I'm looking for position and then to trail down on a lower time frame.
There is some weakening of the 3D time frame trend and the critical zone at the peak probably creates a greater probability for the south.
In this screencast I look back to 2008 to get an idea of what happened in the last crash.
As I'm in a lot of positive equity, I don't want to become complacent in my trend following. So - I've looked back to see the sort of bouncing around of price I could expect (if the current picture unfolds similarly).
To be clear, I...
The big picture on USDCAD is useful to get an idea of what may be probabilities on lower time frames. There are some unusual goings on at a 1D time frame, one I've never seen before.
So, I'm stalking this one closely for a trend change.
I don't know which way EURUSD is going - as my analysis are time frame dependent and trend-dependent. Plus my crystal ball was broken many years ago, beyond repair! :))
In this screencast, I've reviewed from Weekly down to 15 min time frames. I'm in too much doubt. When in that state of mind, I'm happy to stay out and be left behind to miss loadsah equity or...
I was long on UKOIL on a lower time frame, as there were early indications that it could be heading north. My trend following assessments then changed, as the picture unfolded. I decided to bail out just in time for no loss.
I don't care if it now jumps north. At this point in time - based on what I see - I now think the probability for the daily time frame is...
Goldman Sachs has stumbled and now there is much debate out there about what next to do. As usual some are shouting "enter long now", whilst others are saying "stay out" etc.
For me, it's very simple i.e. I just need to wait on a favourable time frame, somewhere between 2 - 6 hourly if I'm to go north. It's difficult to go short as there could be a rebellion of...
I overview the weekly and lower time frames with reference to some economic realities. There is a probability of an economic collapse which is not just about America.
A potential collapse of the Wall Street has been 'predicted' by others. I make no predictions as my crystal ball broke a long time ago - and I've had to adapt.
The issue of an inverted yield-curve...
USDJPY and the US-Dollar basket are showing signs of weakening of their trends. I show why I think so, and I'm happy to hear of a different perspective based on the charts. Late last week I saw some unusual Yen strength which was masked by base currencies doing other things.
I was surprised that Wall Street was heading north but Yen quoted pairs did not rock...
I'm doing my home work and sharing. GBPEUR or EURGBP looks good for next week based on 6H time frames.
In fact nearly all Sterling pairs look favourable for trends south. That doesn't mean I'm shorting all next week.
This is not advice or predictions on what will happen.
I'm not entering long or short on this time frame. I explain why. I could well be wrong as I am around 60 to 70% of the time.
I may look for a trend on a lower time frame that is favourable, but I'm not hunting for one as I have enough positions open at the moment.
Nobody likes to hear about loss and losing - do they?
Well, the 4H time frame on CADJPY gives you just that opportunity. Always - loss has to be balanced against a robust analysis of where the trend is, and where the overall probability is.
You simply cannot make profits overall by not taking controlled losses, in this business.
This screencast is not advice...