We like the short side of the 10 year treasury note for a bearish move to the 1.59 level as a target. Price action could continue higher to 1.73 from current levels, but the 1.59 should be achieved before a longer term bullish move is sustained. So on the longer term scale, we are bullish for price action to make a move for the 2.11 level, which could be reached...
The TNX should be watched very closely next week as the daily chart currently indicates a high risk of seeing another bond rally in the wake of the latest US employment figures (which weren't all that bad). If doubts over a possible Fed rate hike towards the end of the year strengthen in September, the 10-year yield could fall back to it's historical lows, reached...
TNX 2 ALL OF YOU WHO FOLLOW ME AND GIVE ME GOOD VIBES! Stay save! Peace!
This ratio looks like it is to have a big drop soon.
TNX appears to have ended its 3 wave decline. If 3 hits the common 1.618 multiple of 1 expect TNX at 4.23 before its next significant correction, which will end above 3.0, the top of wave 1 and then likely equal the ascent of 1 for wave 5... Long TNX, short bonds...
Today, the main event is likely to be a speech by Fed Chair Yellen before the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia, where she is expected to speak about global conditions. Given that Yellen already expressed her view on rate hikes last week, when she said that a hike “would probably be appropriate” in the coming months, we don’t expect any significant deviation...
I see overwhelming amt of negative press in the media regarding no chance of a Fed rate hike however I feel that most are overlooking the other supporting factors for a potential increase in Dollar Strength in the short term. I am fundamentally biased to believe that the fed will be maintaining the 1.7% bond floor for reasons concerning economic stability and...
This TNX weekly chart is very interesting. The bond market is not seeing a rate rise coming any time soon. Certainly it seems not sooner than June. I doubt it even then. See what happens when it gets to support.
This chart is most interesting because I expect at some point the SPX will reconnect down to TNX to close that divergence. Lets see
This support is significant. If broken, it would probably signal yet another prolonged recession
The 10 yr yield bounced off support but not convincingly so. See how it goes this week
Not sure if it is due to the jobs number or the dollar breaking out but $SPY has hit a wall of resistance. Waiting for next dip.
This is how it looks as of this week. Note that the 40 week MA is turning flat, and the spread is trying to go higher after a re-rest.
I originally published this chart back in last November. This is a revisit. SP500 - goes nowhere so far, no direction (flat, dull) TNX - ticking up, no question. DXY - first up, now down. HGX - broke out and now on support. XAUUSD: dance around resistance line on the downward slope. USOIL: bottomed and work on its way up, pullback a little bit...