Bonds appeared to break out of a flag consolidation pattern today in the TLT Bond ETF. If this fund can close over 115.50 there is upside range to 117.50 and then ~119 as next target. This seems to be coinciding with US Dollar chart firming up as well as the VIX index closing over the key 14 level. This is a key chart to watch over the coming days and weeks.
Based on this pattern triggering on a move over ~21.60 you could expect a measured move to ~22 before hitting resistance. The timing of this breakout seems to be coinciding with market topping action which further strengthens the likelihood of this chart having predictive utility. This chart taken together with today's breakout in Treasuries (TLT) and over 30%...
Ratio chart between the S&P 500 and US Treasury Bonds. The ratio is right now at the same height as before the crash in 2008 and it could eventually reach the levels of the pre-2000 crash if it continues. The only times the monthly RSI(14) of this chart went over 70, a crash eventually followed. However notice the period from 1994 to 2000 where RSI hovered around...
I think we're headed for a bigger correction here, then an explosion higher that will shock everyone. Don't get too bearish! (Short for now)
The ratio had a fake breakout last week and now falls back under the resistance. So it is still following 2008 and 2011 pattern very well, and thus it is still very likely we will have a significant SPY drop and a significant TLT pop.
A comparison between June-September 2011 and today. There is good possibility that IWM drops 5 percent from today's level. Watch RSI and MACD and TLT direction carefully in the next couple of weeks.
A breakout or breakdown will have significant impact on market. So watch it carefully in the next couple of weeks.
TLT at resistance. A small pull back to form the handle, and then break out, just like it did in 2008 AND 2011? We will know in the coming weeks. Note 2008 and 2011 huge gains after breakout.
Chart speaks for it self Music at work: open.spotify.com www.youtube.com
There is no real reason to believe the bond rally is over. Bullish structure and bullish price action. Shorts will just fuel the gentle squeeze higher.
Price kept coming down inside this down trending channel for the last two years. 1,618 area gave two long entries, first being the most successful so far and second being the most safe and low risk due to double bottom and bullish divergence at the end of March. Major obstacle now, after broke the upper channel line, is the last known overhead supply, that is...
A breakout will spell big trouble for the market. We will see.
SPY has formed a shooting star Doji near a all time high, which is likely to form tomorrow. A red candle tomorrow would confirm an evening star reversal pattern. Also notice the mini Head and shoulder within the larger Head and shoulder pattern. The major resistance and support levels are labelled @ 184.62. 181.31 and 174.03, would be places to take profits at...
1. If breakout, buy with stop. If breakout confirmed, buy more. 2. If dips, wait until lower trend line (support) is hit. If support holds, buy this dip with stop and hold (if worked) until upper trend line (resistance) is hit then go back to 1. If aggressive, can short dip, short broken support.
Energy (VDE), material (VAW), commodities (DJP), inflation protection (TIP), gold (GLD) and bond (TLT). I am not certain why (probably because of weaker dollar, as shown on the chart), given this, current dollar and rate on their monthly charts are indeed very weak so can these assets perform well during first half of next bear market? Only time can tell. Good Luck!
Purely speculative based on 2008 and 2011, but keep mind open. It is riding an up trend right now anyway.
Been following this chart for a while, as a possible healthy/sick performance indicator for stocks. The SPY/TNX ratio is diverging for the last two years now, and If I read correctly this chart, it's not stocks healthy for sure. Of course can be diverging for ages or even centuries in this economic recovery miracle we all live in, until already built in energy...