Since 1971 we have had 6 "major" Bear Markets.
Average Characteristics of Bear Market
👉 Avg Length: 536d
👉 Avg Depth: -39%
Current Characteristics of Bear Market
👉 Length: 282d
👉 Avg Depth: -28%
But as I have shared before around the web - the Length and Depth depend wether we have a recession or not.
FULL ANALYSIS HERE (this part starts +17:00 in):
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I like the primary base here.
Buying a pilot position into this.
RS rating is low = 83
No of funds accumulating is increasing nearly 200 funds as of Sep 22
EPS '23 is breakout @ 1.06 (+212%)
Fundamentals are great
The market triggered last week the Ned Davis 3 Day Price Thrust Trigger Indicator - indicator available in my profile.
The Thrusts occur when the S&P 500 rises at least 1.5% for one day, at least 1.15% for a second day, and at least 1.5% on the third day. The record since 1970 is perfect one year later. However, the prior18 cases, ending in 1938, only show 11 out...
$TNP shows a good VCP within a Stage 2 uptrend
Fundamentals are increasing with all Sales, Margins and Earnings Improving
Expexcted 2023 EPS breakout
Volume is showing signs of accumulations
Industry group is #8 out of #197
$ENPH has been showing the characteristics of a Market Leader - I bought last week. Here is why:
1. Confirmed Stage 2 uptrend
2. 11 week constructive base (Cup and Handle pattern)
3. Strong RS rating
4. Breakout Year on EPS
5. 2 Quarter EPS acceleration
The market is ready to enter its "Best 6 Months" as the calendar transitions from October to November.
👉 Yale Hirsch , the man behind the creation of the Stock Trader's Almanac, originally described the "Best 6 Months" tendency in 1986. The "Best 6 Months" idea is a straightforward one. Hirsch's analysis indicates that during the past several decades, a...
Taking the second half of XLE here.
Second half has win of +9.14%
First half had win of +6.65%
Blended win rate: 7.95%
Initial Stop Loss was 4.36% hence this is 1.82R win
This is a Power Play (High tight flag) setup.
We had advancement of +150% and Correction of -15%
Relative Strength is outperforming the market
Volume is mostly bullish
Bought on 28OCT and added on 31OCT
Formed a Cup and Handle Base on top of the Power Play
Some notes that made SWAV a lower prob setup.
The big drops near and below the 50SMA, took quite a long time to gain back. This is a sign that it is not institutional buying supporting the wedge and breakout.
This might continue to run, but I want to take profits into strength +6.65%
I am only taking half of the position. For the rest of position stop loss is at break-even.
This way I am GUARANTEED profit for at least +3.33% on the whole position.
With this technique I have massively improved my worst case scenario.
Probability is high for a pullback.
