TLT is breaking higher from both it's descending channel off January 2015's high and the Right Angle Ascending Broadening Formation (RAABF) it has been consolidating H12015's slide since early June. This dual trend line breakout occurs after a pivot from the Potential Reversal Zone at 115.50-116 of TLT's 10-month Bullish Bat. On this basis, TLT is poised to...
The US dollar index was a thing of bubbly-beauty, gaining over 25 percent in a year. Traders thought that after seven years, it is now time for the Federal Reserve to raise rates. Unfortunately, reality is set it. The Fed has always claimed to be data-dependent. First, the potential for a rate hike was when unemployment dropped to 6.5 percent. That came and went...
The ETF representing the Vanguard Total Market is down around 3% off 2015 highs, and about 4.5% off the highest point in 2012. First, the minor support level at 82.02 was broken, followed by the next minor support at 81.84. A move below the major support at 81.37 will break the rising channel going back to the September 2013 low, effectively breaking the...
For the big picture of gold, look at the monthly time frame. What is the story that the monthly chart is telling us? It is showing us that Gold has FAILED to make a new low after bottoming back in November at 109.67: December, January, February, March, April all failed to push new price lows and that is a sign that the sellers are not only extremely patient,...
The yield on the US TNote 10-Year remains in a long term downtrend channel, looking to complete it's down wave (3) of V towards 0.70%. A break above 2.20% would invalidate this trade and a break above 3.04% would invalidate the whole bearish pattern.
10-Year US Treasury yield remains in a long term downtrend channel, in the process of completing downwave (3) of V near the bottom of the channel at around 0.70%. Key resistance that if broken would invalidate this bearish scenario is the 3.04% level.
Lately I’ve been hearing the word deflation everywhere, in the financial media, mainstream media, local tv stations and newspapers. It seems that deflation has entered the mainstream and even the proverbial shoe shine boy is talking about it. To me it looks like there’s a trade in there somewhere. To avoid basing a trade solely on anecdotal evidence and my...
It's been more than 6 years since the last major financial crisis occured in 2008. If we assume financial crisis come out almost perodically in every 8 - 10 years then I think it's time to start thinking whether we are close to the next one. 10Y US treasury notes have always been preferred investment tool for non-risk takers regardless to the financial...
It looks like the rally in bonds is finally done because it had 3 legs up and is forming a potential M pattern. The obvious target is back down into liquidity at the 200 sma. What this means for the market is that it should have a strong rally to finish off January in a positive note and a positive tone for the rest of the year. This final move in bonds...
The 10-YR is seeing demand as every data point in 2015 has come under expectations, while the slump in US economic data began months ago. Key bond gurus, such as Gundlach and Gross, look at the US 10-Y to reach a 1-handle. Safe-haven demand will be a major trend in 2015 as volatility increases, which will drive more traders into treasuries. Initially, look for...
This is a similar chart to that published by Technician (see related idea below) that shows a clear divergence between stock markets and bond markets. I realize after making this chart that I had identified several bearish signals in bond markets at the start of the year, and I thought that we would thereby see a stock market correction in 2014. Stocks are the...
No entry for now. Bonds gapped down and didn't even get close to our entry area. We will watch for a bounce...below the zone we will continue to look short.
Technicals: The 10 year T Note is finding support along the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2.38. This level also coincides with the 20 MA on the Monthly chart which is on an uptrend. The general uptrend movement from 2013 to now suggest that the recent selloff could be a consolidation ahead of a larger break to the upside. Macro: The Fed has been hinting towards...
$TLT has been rallying for a while but from the middle of May until now price has been going nowhere. Today price broke significant resistance and will go higher from here.
30 Years Treasury Bond weekly chart Broken Tentative Up Trendline. If the 30 Years Treasury Bond is closing the week below the support ( 3.27 ) level, it may trigger more bearish move.
Bonds appeared to break out of a flag consolidation pattern today in the TLT Bond ETF. If this fund can close over 115.50 there is upside range to 117.50 and then ~119 as next target. This seems to be coinciding with US Dollar chart firming up as well as the VIX index closing over the key 14 level. This is a key chart to watch over the coming days and weeks.
Based on this pattern triggering on a move over ~21.60 you could expect a measured move to ~22 before hitting resistance. The timing of this breakout seems to be coinciding with market topping action which further strengthens the likelihood of this chart having predictive utility. This chart taken together with today's breakout in Treasuries (TLT) and over 30%...
Ratio chart between the S&P 500 and US Treasury Bonds. The ratio is right now at the same height as before the crash in 2008 and it could eventually reach the levels of the pre-2000 crash if it continues. The only times the monthly RSI(14) of this chart went over 70, a crash eventually followed. However notice the period from 1994 to 2000 where RSI hovered around...