Sold the 118/124 Strangle with 52 days to expiration on TLT for 1.95 credit. Always like to have trades on TLT so even thou the IV rank is low I like to add trades keeping the qty small and will look to diversify with other trades in bonds later on next week. I am basically betting that we are still in a correction and will stay between my 124 calls and 118...
Trade Setup: -1 SPY May 19 225/235/236/245 Synthetic Strangle @ $5.51 DTE: 56 Max Win: $551 Max Loss: $449 Breakevens: $229.49 & $241.51 Trade Management: 25% winner; full loser. Will take off a side if nearly worthless; Will roll put out if ITM at expiration. Green is profit zone; Vertical black bar is expiration.
Since HLF is oversold , there's a very good oportunity in making money. Target is 57.00 , but I belive that it will go over 60 . MARKET HOURS: Good oportunity for STRADDLE (in case the price wiil be between 59 and 63) after the market opens, as well as IRON CONDOR (STRANGLE seems to be ***too risky***).
I've decided to sell the strangle around IWM -0.75% . Collected a credit and hoping for 50% profit.
I closed my NOV strangle and reopened my QQQ strangle in DEC 1 strike wider than before. My opinion is it will stay inside my strikes allowing theta decay.
I chickened out of my Widow Maker spread and closed out my position. I replaced it with a 2.7 / 3.6 strangle giving me a total of 2 strangles on. My plan is to strangle the widow maker and make some gains or at least scratch the entire trade. Horrible puns intended.
After 14 days of mostly bullish candles, we get the first sign that the bears wants some action and/or some bulls taking profits, breaking the 20 EMA and the hourly trendline. Looking to profit from the next move down, I will be shorting the Natural Gas Futures and Sell a Strangle ( 3.2 Call and 2.85 Put) to reduce my cost basis and improve my probabilities of...
We got some movement in Bonds, and a small rise in Volatility. The Implied volatility is above the last year average, knowing that volatility is always overstated I look every opportunity to sell some premium. This is a small trade, but I will be selling the 33/30 Strangle 49 days from expiration for $1.22 per contract with a probability of making money at...
TSLA stock is at a crossroad and maybe hard to admit that its lost in direction and headed back down for a recharge. I do see the potential for this stock to rebound if it does drop. Longer term, aside from all negative headlines TSLA is a threat to the old standard traditional car makers, dealers, auto mechanic. Its also a threat to indirect markets such as...
No reason to hold anything over the weekend unless you have to. Something smelly about the markets. I can feel the SPY wanting to sell. MPC rallied up testing 37.00 fib level. It tested that level and it did not breach. The chart indicates overall bullish. It has/is building a nice $35 floor for itself. THE MODEL HAS NOT BEEN RE-DRAWN AND MPC IS TRADING PER THOSE...
Because of high implied volatility, sold a strangle in GDXJ June Expiration. Sold 25 Put and 45 Call for $51 Credit/contract. POP: ~90% BP: ~$400
Skew this trade to the short side and sell more 235 calls, Chart says $TSLA is experiencing a short term top
$35 Call and $32.5 put . Backtest probability: 81.1% Sharpe Ratio: 0.63 (4 years of backtest)
-1 Call at 2090 -1 Put at 2010 Backtest probability: 83.5% Sharpe Ratio: 0.82 (2 years of backtest)
$1.515 Call and $1.455 put. Backtest probability: 76.3% Sharpe Ratio: 0.43 (2 years of backtest)
I have a love-hate relationship with earnings plays. When they work out, I'm happier than a clam; when they don't, I swear off them, use expletives to describe them, and say that they're a total *?! waste of time. That being said, there are some I just can't pass up, usually because the premium is just too good. In the next couple of weeks, these will be NFLX,...
In preparation for the upcoming earnings report, Tesla has some clear probabilities in front of it, from my perspective. If they report a great number and forecast, it will be $250 in a heart-beat. If they stumble at all in any way, it will be $150 in a heart-beat. So I view owning both puts and calls here as the best strategy. Buy the $210 calls and Buy the...