S&P500 has turned bullish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 58.980, MACD = 2.870, ADX = 28.757) as today it is trading and will most likely close over the 1D MA50 for the third day in a row. Having crossed over the LH, the index has invalidated the bearish sentiment of April and a new Channel up is emerging. If it capitalizes on the 1D MACD Bullish Cross, we expect the...
Last Friday, the SPX gapped up at the open and temporarily broke above the 50-day SMA during the trading session. Finally, yesterday, the SPX managed to close above this line of resistance, which is a positive development. However, a failure of the price to defend the ground above this level, now acting as support, for multiple consecutive days will be concerning....
Everyone senses there is something coming, but nobody knows what it is. Regardless the markets will correct massively, technically because we haven't had a 0.61 fib correction in a decade, secondly because the bags are too heavy and everyone is bagholding, we need to shake those who call themselves diamond hands at +50% price discounts, i.e. cheaper...
Yesterday's FOMC meeting concluded with a decision to keep the monetary policy unchanged, leaving the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%. During the subsequent press conference, Jerome Powell outlined the solid state of the economy alongside heightened inflationary pressures. Notably, he disclosed plans to commence with the reduction in quantitative tightening...
1. Price swept a lot of low resistance lows with this bearish impulse, and created a new Swing Low. This is the External move. 2. Price retraced to the -FVG, a premium PD Array. This is an Internal Range Liquidity move. Expecting price to wick up past the PDH, but close inside the -FVG, and potentially end the retracement. Bearish PA should follow. Price is in...
S&P500 is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.601, MACD = -44.800, ADX = 58.528) as it touched the 1D MA100 on Friday after more than 5 months. This calls for a short term rebound at least as every previous corrective wave inside the multi month Channel Up that approached the 1D MA100, it rebounded to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Following our...
S&P500 has formed today a Death Cross on the 4H timeframe after 8 months (August 14th 2023), turning bearish on the 1D technical outlook as well (RSI = 37.122, MACD = -81.00, ADX = 53.782) as yesterday it crossed under the 1D MA50 for the first time since November 3rd 2023. Both are technically very bearish developments and according to the last 4H Death Cross, we...
The S&P500 index is trading inside a Channel Down. Every break over the MA50 (4h) forms its Lower High and is a sell signal. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price as it is over the MA50 (4h). Targets: 1. 5125 (expected contact with the MA50 1d). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is on a Rising Support, which is a Bullish Divergence in contrast with the Channel...
The S&P500 remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.356, MACD = 47.470, ADX = 36.597) but today is having so far the strongest bearish 1D candle since December 15th 2022. Having hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up at the start of the week, this can be a technical correction to at least the 1D MA100 if the 1D MA50 breaks. Consequently we...
The S&P500 index / US500 hit the top of the Channel Up that started in August 2022. If the 1week RSU crosses under its MA trend line, we will have a sell confirmation, much like July 31st 2023 and February 20th 2023. The minimum decline has been -6.06%. Another one of this magnitude, conveniently tests the 0.382 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up and more...
The S&P500 is highly overbought on the 1W technical outlook (RSI = 77.490, MACD = 202.930, ADX = 73.429) and hasn't provided the slightest correction under the key 1D MA50 trendline since November 3rd 2023. In spite of that, the index can keep rising without providing such a correction, let alone enable us to time it. Its structure of this nonstop rise since...
The S&P500 index hit yesterday the top of the 19 month Channel Up. That was the first time since it started trading. This is a strong sell signal and considering that the MA50 (1d) has been intact since the November 3rd 2023 bullish break out, we expect to cross under it now. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. Targets: 1. 4950 (-6.00%, 0.618 Fib...
Yesterday’s financial print in the United States revealed an uptick in inflation. For the second month of 2024, the inflation rate rose by 0.4% MoM (accelerating 0.1% from January 2024) and 3.2% YoY (accelerating 0.1% from January 2024). Meanwhile, the core inflation rose by 0.4% MoM (staying unchanged) and 3.8% YoY (showing a decrease of 0.1% versus the previous...
S&P500 / US500 is approaching the top of a Fibonacci Channel Up that goes back all the way to August 2022. The 1day MA50 has been in firm support since November 3rd 2023 but as the 1day RSI is squeezed inside a Triangle pattern, a break out is inevitable. This is technically more likely to be to the downside due to this overbought multi month momentum near the...
Yesterday, the SPX formed an opening gap and erased some of its recent gains, which was accompanied by nearly a 10% jump in the VIX. What is particularly interesting about this is the formation of the island reversal pattern on the daily chart. The formation of this topping pattern and simultaneous rise in the VIX after a period of strong gains in the U.S. equity...
S&P500 is bullish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 61.459, MACD = 50.390, ADX = 31.702) but the RSI has turned sideways for a long time which is the same pattern that led to the July 27th 2023 High. The index has had three major corrections inside the long term Channel Up, ranging from -8.16% to -10.64%. We expect the index to decline by at least -8.00% in the next 1...
This is a completely full and completed schematic of CME's E-mini S&P 500 Contract. This contract started in 1997 so there are decades of data not accounted for on the real chart. However, these are just as viable and important as the Standard & Poors 500 Indice. Let us take a look at the separate (chronological) boxes and understand what they are... #1 is...
Optimism surrounding earnings last week helped to push the market higher. As a result, the SPX established a new all-time high above $5,100, and the VIX faltered below $14. Subsequently, it did not take long for Wallstreet analysts to upgrade their price targets for various companies, including the one with the most hype around it, NVIDIA. Some of these forecasts...