Although I traditionally see earnings season as beginning with the first play in the alphabet (AA), there are some that occur before AA that I've frequently played. Next week, it's MON, BBBY, and WBA. MON announces earnings on 1/6 before market open (look to put on that play before Tuesday NY close); WBA, 1/7 before market open (put on Wednesday before market...
NKE announces earnings on 12/22 (Tuesday) after market close, so look to put on your play before NY close. Here's the standard short strangle setup: Dec 31st 118/141 short strangle POP%: 75% Max Profit: 1.25 credit ($125)/contract BPE: ~$1572 BE's: 116.75/142.25 Note: I ran an iron condor setup, but it looks like it will generate less than a .50 credit/contract...
Having announced earnings about two weeks ago, IVR/IV in GME remains high (70/55). The standard setup -- the short strangle: Jan 22 27.5/38.5 short strangle POP%: 71% Max Profit: $113/contract BPE: ~$333/contract Break Evens: 26.37/39.63 Look to take it off at 50% max profit and move on ... .
Some stuff hits my high IVR/high IV radar over and over again. WYNN is one of those, with an IVR currently at 100 and an IV at 81. Some caution is in order, though, since ordinarily I like going 45 days out and WYNN's earnings are due to be announced on 2/2, so I want any setup to expire somewhat before that so I don't get caught in a volatility expansion (that...
SPX500 - be Carefull with the Shorts
Here's a great article on "tested" short strangle defense: www.dough.com This is exactly what I'm doing with my broken SCTY short strangle (see post below).
Only two earnings plays stick out to me this coming week -- FDX and ORCL, both of which announce earnings on 12/16 (Wednesday) after market close, so look to put on setups before NY close on Wednesday. Currently, FDX's 52 week IVR is at 54 (IV 34), which isn't stellar, but it's at 92 for the past six months. Moreover, there is pretty good credit to be had...
Okay, so there isn't a 1.00 worth of credit in this setup, but I'm going to put it on anyways due to its high IVR/high IV (79/52). EWZ Jan 29 18.5/26 short strangle POP%: 70% Max Profit: $82/contract BPE: ~$235 BE's: 17.68/26.82
You know what they say, one's man's junk is another man's treasure ... . With an IVR of 100 and an IV of 18, this may be as good as junk is going to get for premium selling (don't quote me on that; further sell-off could be on the horizon ... ). HYG Jan 29 74/84 short strangle POP%: 75% Max Profit: $109/contract BPE: ~ (Undefined/After Hours) BE's: 72.91/85.09
With a dwindling earnings calendar and some buying power to put to good use, I'm looking to go where the IVR/IV takes me. With an IVR of 74 and fairly decent IV of 43, HES popped up toward the top of the Dough "Notable Stocks" grid (sorted by IVR). Here's my set up: Dec 24 51/68 Short Strangle POP%: 75% Max Profit: $150/contract BPE: ~$597/contract BE's:...
YUM announces earnings on 10/6 after market close, so if you're going to play this via an options setup, look at getting a fill for whatever you put on prior to the 10/6 New York close. Ordinarily, I trade these using a short strangle or iron condor, with the short call/put legs at or around the 1 standard deviation line for the chosen expiry, which will either...