Going where the premium is at ... . I already have a setup in GDX in the same expiry, so I'm layering another on small here ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 69% P50: 81% Max Profit: $93/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/~$236/contract Delta: =8.29/contract Theta: 2.98/contract
There is simply not much high quality premium to sell out there; this is one of them (>70 implied volatility rank; >50 implied volatility). Metrics: Probability of Profit: 69% P50: 79% Max Profit: $109/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/~$255/contract Breakevens: 20.41/30.09 Theta: 3.13/contract Delta: -8.87/contract Notes: I'm looking to take...
Sold this earlier today, but can't get onto Dough currently for the metrics ... . In any event, filled for $85/contract. I'll look to take it off for 50% max profit in the volatility contraction post-earnings.
While I wait for my "gaggle" of long VIX/VIX derivative setups to play out, I'm going to play a few of these smaller earnings announcements, so that I can keep powder dry for the juicier underlyings (should their implied volatility ever ramp up to my standards). Metrics: Probability of Profit: 77% Max Profit: $79/contract Buying Power Effect/Underfined:...
Originally opened for a $104 credit, I closed this out today for a $60 debit, yielding a $40.92/contract profit after fees/commissions ... .
I already have a couple EWZ premium selling setups on, but with an implied volatility rank of 95 and implied volatility of 59, I'm going to put some more on here. I'm going small and using multiple expirations for setups to disperse my risk, while taking advantage of this fairly low priced underlying to haul in some pretty good credit. Here's the...
MON announces earnings on Wednesday before market open, so look to put on your play on Tuesday in the waning hours and minutes of the NY session. As with all earnings plays, you may have to tweak your strikes somewhat, depending on how MON moves running into the end of the session. Here are the metrics for this defined risk setup: Probability of Profit: 69% Max...
With this little dip here we got today, I bought back my LULU short strangle to close it out for a small profit. Here's the whole chain: Sold to open LULU April 8th 54/68 short strangle for $130 credit Bought to close LULU April 8th 54 short put for a $2 debit Rolled LULU April 8th 68 short call to April 15th 68.5 short call for a $17 credit Sold to open LULU...
I didn't like how price was dancing around my short call strike post earnings, particularly with an analyst upgrade that's probably keeping it there, so I rolled the April 8th 68 short call to the April 15th 68.5 to give it a touch more space and time to work out (filled for a .12 ($12) credit). Since I closed out my original setup's short put at near worthless,...
I'm going to go with a nondirectional bias here (pretty much always do). Here are the metrics for both a run of the mill one standard deviation short strangle, as well as an iron condor: April 8th 54/68.5 short strangle Probability of Profit: 70% Max Profit: 1.30/contract ($130) Buying Power Effect/Max Risk: ~$616/undefined Break Evens: 55.30/67.20 April 15...
I originally filled this for a .94 credit, and I'm out today for a .47 debit (50% max profit/$47 contract).
LULU announces earnings on Wednesday before market open, so look to put on your setup before close on Tuesday. This is what I'm looking at tentatively right now: April 8th 53.5/68.5 short strangle Probability of Profit: 73% Max Profit: $124/contract Buying Power Effect/Max Risk: $616/undefined Notes: This is a tentative setup. Naturally, a lot depends on how...
Sorry I didn't get to post this before NY close ... . Filled for a $94 credit. I usually like to see a $100/contract out of these setups, but I figured it was close enough ... . I'm looking for price to stay between my short strikes between now and expiration and for volatility to contract post-earnings announcement. Post-announcement, price is down about $2...
Here are the metrics for the setup: Probability of Profit: 73% Max Profit: $100/contract Buying Power Effect/Risk: $846/contract; Undefined Risk Break Evens: 59/71 Alternative: April 15th 56.5/60/69/72.5 iron condor Probability of Profit: 61% Max Profit: $100/contract Buying Power Effect/Risk: $250/contract; Defined Risk Break Evens: 59/70 Notes: As you can...
Covering this at nearly 50% max profit for a .51 debit. I got in for a .93/contract credit, and am out for a .51 debit, so realized a profit of .42 ($42)/contract -- ridiculous for an $11 underlying .... .
As with the XOP play, selling premium where the volatility is and that's in gold issues (GDX, GG, GDXJ) and oil (OIH, XOP) right now. I filled this earlier today for a $98 credit. The current metrics are: Probability of Profit: 72% Max Profit: $90 per contract Buying Power Effect: Undefined Notes: At the suggestion of FractalTrader (that you very much for your...
Gotsta go where the volatility takes you when premium selling, and it's still in oil and gas ... . Here are the metrics for the setup: XOP April 22nd 24/33 short strangle Probability of Profit: 70% Max Profit: $107/contract Buying Power Effect: Undefined Break Evens: 22.93/34.07
High implied volatility rank plus high implied volatility equals good premium selling ... . RIG April 15th 9/14 short strangle Probability of Profit: 66% Max Profit: .93/contract ($93/contract) Buying Power Effect: Undefined Break Evens: 8.07/14.93 Notes: Ridiculously good premium for such a low priced underlying.