More of the same here - my USD view remains bullish against AUD, NZD, GBP from here and at these levels. Especially on the back of the RBA i still think we should see 0.745 in AUD$ today, 0.69 in kiwi on the 10th (RBNZ), and 1.28 for GBP on the 4th (BOE) Fed Kaplan Speech Comments: Kaplan: Expects Continued Oil Price Volatility Until Year-End Kaplan: 1Q, 2Q...
Fed Dudley was speaking At A joint New York Fed, Indonesian Central Bank Seminar On Sunday evening when he left a mixed impression for the markets to digest - saying "it is premature to rule out an interest-rate increase this year" but then on the contrary saying "Raising Rates Prematurely Would Be Riskier Than Moving Slightly Too Late" and following up that...
NZD$ Technical analysis - Remain bearish below 0.70 - 0.69tp1 0.68tp2 on a rate cut (Aug 10th): Key level close: 1. On the daily and weekly we closed at the strongest pivot point of recent times at 0.70 - this is very bearish as historically this is the strongest level (lower than post brexit). MA: 1. We trade below the 4wk and 3m MA - this is a bearish...
The RBNZ was dovish in their economic assesment and IMO used it to communicate their 100% commitment to a OCR cut. Key drivers of this view were quotes such as "futher policy easing will be required, and monetary policy will remain accomodative.", "NZD currency strength makes it difficult to hit target inflation" and "NZD exachange rate is too high stronger NZD...
Short NZDUSD based on low CPI/ inflation = an RBNZ OCR cut is 90% likely - 105 mins after market open at 23:45GMT NZD releases their June CPI print. - In all RBNZ mandates they reiterate how they consider CPI to be their "main/ sole" target or dictator of the monetary policy they set (check any of their minutes etc). - Their target is 2%, plus recently they...
FOMC Lockhart was the 4th Fed this week to imo be relatively Hawkish with his words, most notably reinforcing with the others brexits near-term stability saying "Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy" and " So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly". Most interestingly though was Lockharts view on the FOMC's positioning for future rate...
IMO FOMC George was largely bullish/ Hawkish $ on the margin; surprisingly coming out and stating for one of the first times that "Fed rates are too low" and "Not Raising Rates in June Was Due to Timing Issues" - these two statements imo hint that a hike coUuld be on the cards earlier than perhaps was expected (Dec), in-light of his opinion of them being too low...
Also as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view: 1. On the daily, weekly and H1 NU currently Trades (and at 0.73) close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive. - Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU...
Also as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view: 1. On the daily, H1 and weekly NU currently Trades (and at 0.73) close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive. - Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU...
Short NZDUSD is in my top 2 FX Trades for several reasons: 1. NZD is considered the riskiest G10 currency cross, so NZD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph). - With Brexit occurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for NZD due...
After the non farm pay role last week we are fairly certain of a US rate hike by December;making the USD the strongest currency out there at the moment. The NZD did have some strength a few weeks ago when the dairy index started to show signs of recovery but since then it has slipped back into negative territory along with poor CPI and GDP readings. We had an...