This chart provides probable market behavior given current market behavior, interest rates, and other factors such as presidential elections. www.tradingview.com I am expecting a down turn during the next week which would last until late February and another leg up in SPX until the final move down in August 2017. Trend line colors mark the same conditions...
Take care & analyzed it again - it`s always your decision ... (for a bigger picture zoom the chart) This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!! Next week i`ll confirm or change my opinion about this SetUp :) Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ... 1482 Cross-Rates (4th Quarter Statistics) @...
Two big things going on... the BULL run has been glorious with no stops and the US didn't raise interest rates this December. In addition to that I have been waiting on a 200-300 pip pullback as shown in my LONG for LIFE idea. I though it was going to happen on the 21st of November, but it seemed it was a little too soon on some of the Daily indicators I have....
In an unmistakeable correlation, a higher short end of the curve means gold is relatively less attractive to own. This argument has strong claims on both reason and evidence... Hence, with a hikepending, watch for gold lower.
NAS100 SHORT TP1 Swing low appx 4790-4800 TP2 Swing low appx 4700-4720 TP3 Swing low appx 4630-4640 This week is all about what central banks aren’t going to do, but also the limited impact of what they’ve done already. The FOMC meeting in the US unlikely to produce a change in policy. Market pricing is now only places a 20% chance of a hike in rates this week...
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i've down my bearish analysis on USDJPY if price reverses down. but incase price breaks 104.30 we should see price head all the way up to 106, terminating @ 78.6 of the bearish Gartley.
Technicals (Bearish) - Price has just tested resistance zone and showing signs of bearish momentum, the divergence provides confluence. Fundamentals (Bearish) - Increasing speculation around USD rate hike provides more bearish momentum for the pair.
The reason for Friday's massive market selling is said to be because of the Fed's message that the rate hike is coming. Seems that it may just be broad market selling after a period of complacent low VIX and broader overvaluation. For confirmation that the rate hike is coming I'll be watching the 3 month treasury rate closely for signs. A move from .30 to .55...
Still think rates will head lower due for a myriad of reasons, but in the short term, it is plausible that rates will go higher for technical reasons. Longer-Term Reasons for lower rates (i.e. lower for longer)- 1) Monetary Policy remains accommodative 2) Growth/Inflation expectations remain subdued 3) Foreign buying interest from places with negative yields on...
In light of the beastly last two NFPs and increasing inflation, I would like the think the Fed will raise rates in September... they probably won't, but that is not the point. XLF has broken out of the nearly year long triangle quite clearly. It is a long. Near term resistance is at 25, however that should be taken out. Tl;dr: Long XLF
BOJ Miss: 1. BOJ deliver one of the biggest misses in history (vs expectations/ pressure) - only increasing ETF purchases and dollar funding by apprx $60bn annual in total vs 10-20bps of Depo and LSP cuts + 5-20trn in QE increase + ETF increase. *See attached post for in-depth detail on the BOJ situation and price action history/ Yen strength/ Safe havens* ...
Mysterious sterling strength: 1. Sterling has managed to par losses and actually rise in past days despite a number of heavily weighted factors increasing GBP downside pressure e.g. MPC M. Weale switching to the doves, PMI/ Business Optimism 8yr lows, Sterling rates markets consistently pricing >25bps of cuts to the BOE base rate (details below), the median bank...
End of Week Summary: 1. On the week we saw risk outperform safe havens for the first time since the brexit vote and the SPX and DJ30 set new all time highs by 2% and 1.2% respectively - somewhat encouraging given this was the longest period post-crisis that equity indexes have had since new highs, with a total time of apprx 1 year. 2. Given the articles...
At the start of 2016 the PBOC began aggressively devaluing the off-shore Yuan against the USD, imo in an attempt to start the year with a competitive export:import advantage - with the aim of making 2016 a headline "come back" year for China amid the growing GDP growth and Credit bubble worries. As a result Equities across the board sold-off (-8.5% in a few...
1. *Id say a 6/10 dovish reaction by markets, GBP falling across the board & FTSE gaining. Carney seems contempt with a lower GBP and is happy to continue talking the currency lower in an attempt to use the exchange rate mechanism as a leading instrument to buoy UK economic stability (GDP, CPI, Unemp) against the potential Brexit backdrop; thus I continue my view...
This is a Monthly chart of USDJPY, this one has caught our eye the most as it has broken out of a major long term downtrend back in 2014 and since hasn't looked back until now, this lines up perfectly as a potential value zone where big money may look to step in. Technical Reasons: 1. Break and retest of a monthly trend line as support. 2. Key area support of...