Trading without a risk management is gambling. Gambling relies on hope.
Selling OTM spreads depends on a 75% success rate and surviving a few big losses. The RR is very low if you are aiming to collect 25% of the spread. I traded 12 months solely on BullPut and this has taught me well. It's a losing strategy based on the misconception of high win rate and...
Entry when price rebounded at Support. Sold at $0.78
Planned RR = 1.6
By moving up the SL with the uptrend, profits were protected, hence risk became 0
Exit - Bought 0.08
Gain $0.70
ROC =16% per month
After the "healthy" correction, kc touched the 100 day MA around 153 as indicated previously as a potential target. Furthermore, we are hitting the lower end of the trend channel (blue).
I am looking for some support coming in here.
As vol softened during the sell off, threeways, selling put spread, buying call seem to be good long market, long vega strategies...
Update on a upsloping trendline (blue) which acts as resistance
On the 5 hour chart, we should have generated a sell signal.
I still remain short via puyt spread 1x2s, as frost is no longer an issue. It appears the market is still digesting this from last week and should correct lower IMHO as physical supplies out of Brazil remain steady.
Warehouse stocks in...
Seems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out.
Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions.
Quite oversold and we saw sell...
As we see some support is coming in from our longer term trend channel as well as the lower Bbands.
So far the last three weeks have provided with the expected sideways action once reaching 50.
Selling calls has been the right strategy so far (51, 52 and 53 calls).
At this support I am covering my short calls, but will hold of selling any put spreads to see how...
Gold bounced off of the support area for now
Light volume during recent bounce indicates this is a retracement in the downtrend
--> I threw in some Fibs to indicate where overhead resistance lies.
Resistance at:
- 7 day MA (currently there); a break would suggest the 20 day MA or the 38% FIb as target (1240ish)
- 23% Fib at 1224, 38% Fib at 1240
Overall: the...
Pro Long:
- Trend line provided massive support (dark red line)
- High volume at support and during the rally
- future spreads very strong (N16-U16 turned into backwardation)
- If we close positive today 7 MA will cross 20 MA generating buy signal
Contra Long:
- running into resistance on middle Bollinger Band (20 day MA)
I sold the 2900 puts last week as a...
Pro Long (Chart):
- RSI and Stochastik created buy signal
- Orange support line
Pro Long (Physical):
- ICE warehouse stocks new lows
- spreads tightening ever so slightly
Contra (Chart):
- still in middle to upper end of trend channel
- room to go in terms of lower Bollinger band
- long term trend still down
- risk/reward for long position not there
IMHO I...
It seem like after Earnings yesterday MSFT is going to open between 54$ and 55$. It's going to be a retest gap. So I would wait for a Retest next week an then sell a Bull-Put-Spread in the purple area with a time of 1 to 2 weeks.
