WYNN just had earnings about two weeks ago. Ordinarily, the volatility quickly contracts, but it hasn't in WYNN. With an IVR of 75 and an IV of 62, I can't pass up this play. You can naturally go with an iron condor with the same short strike prices, but I'm going with a short strangle here since I have the buying power to do it: Dec 18th 55/85 short...
Well, it's probably not worth videotaping, but with earnings to be announced after hours tomorrow and IVR/IV both at 90+, it's worth selling premium in ... . If you feel the need to videotape that, well, then, go right ahead ... . Due to the price of the underlying, I am going short strangle with this one: Nov 6th 23/34 Short Strangle POP%-age: 74% Max Profit:...
As of right now, AAPL is looking unpromising from a premium selling perspective around earnings, which are scheduled to be announced on 10/27 after market close. With IVR and IV both at 34, the underlying is currently less than ideal for premium selling. Naturally, this may quickly change come Monday NY open and going into Tuesday immediately before earnings,...
FXE has popped up on my radar again, namely because I use Dough's grid, which ranks underlyings by IVR (IV Rank). I just got out of the December rung of a short call vertical ladder I set up several weeks ago on this down move, and FXE has naturally gotten my attention again, with IVR popping to 61 (i.e., its IV is in the 61st percentile of the IV for the past 52...
SNDK announces earnings on 10/21 after market close, and with an IVR of 91 (52 Week ToS), it may be too good to pass up as a premium selling play, assuming that the options are liquid enough. I am looking at the bid/ask spreads right now in off market hours, and they do not appear to be promising, with the spread between the bid and the ask for the strikes I'd...
IBM announces earnings on 10/19 after the market close. The volatility isn't flashy (currently at 59 IVR/ToS 52-Month), but this isn't one of those underlyings that gets very "excited" from a volatility standpoint anyways. I'll look to put on a directionally neutral iron condor or short strangle some time during tomorrow's New York session, with an...
So my first earnings play this season (YUM) didn't go all that hot ... . Naturally, rolling out for duration and credit is part and parcel of the premium selling game, but like any other kid in the candy store, I just want to take my candy and go ... . Perhaps NFLX will be a different story. With earnings to be announced on 10/14 after the market close and with...
Days like the past several we've had here with plummeting volatility aren't that fantastic for selling premium, at least with respect to the broader market ETF's like SPY, IWM, DIA, and QQQ. That being said, it's nice to get on, say "nope" for the day, check the trades you do have on to see if anything needs to be done, and then bop off and do something else,...
If you've ever watched any TastyTrade episodes with the 'Soz and Tony, you'll often hear Tom admonishing Tony to "quit showing him the chart." "Mmmm," you say, "Why does he do that?" Well, it's because when "selling premium" (i.e., short strangles, iron condors, and credit spreads), price is not your signal to enter a trade, the implied volatility (IV)...
With an IVR of 46 (52 Week TOS) compared to GLD's 21, GDXJ presents the better premium selling opportunity in the "gold sector" than GLD, the standard go-to for plays in the precious metal. Currently, a Nov 27th expiry 16/18/26/28 iron condor yields .43 credit/contract, a probability of profit of 73%, break-evens at 17.57 and 26.43, and will cost you...
With GLD at or near the .50 between the 5/18 high and the 7/24 low and with a fair amount of short-term volatility, a premium play may be afoot. A possible setup: a November 27th 101.5/104.5/117/120 Iron Condor, the stats for which are as follows: 71% POP Max Profit: $60/Contract Buying Power Effect: $240 Break-Evens: 103.90/117.60 Notes: I would note that the...
If for some reason, you don't have access to Dough's Grid (which sorts underlyings by Implied Volatility Rank or IVR), you can always use the historical volatility indicator to determine the quality of volatility in the underlying instrument. Higher historical volatility equals better premium. In this particular example, I'm using TLT, whose HV hit a high of...
With an IVR at 51 and VIX at 27, here's an example of an IWM trade I would put on were I not to have done the SPY IC I did earlier today: Nov 20 94/98/116/119 Iron Condor POP: 61% Max Profit: 1.02 Buying Power Effect: 2.98 Break-Evens: 96.98/117.02 Delta: -3.71 Theta: 1.53 It's a bit longer in duration than I'd normally like, but I wouldn't look a gift horse in...
With VIX at 27, I got a Nov 6th 170/173/198/201 SPY iron condor filled for a 1.01 credit (again, sorry about not noting the stats). Look for similar setups in IWM, DIA, and QQQ 45 DTE while this little bit of volatility lasts with your short put strike at the 1 SD line and your short call strike at the expected move for the expiry, going 2-3 strikes wide with...
Although we are starting back into another earnings season, I'm just not all that fond of earnings plays; I prefer the relative boredom of index ETF trades or things like sector SPDR's for the generation of steady income as opposed to flash-in-the-plan earnings plays which are generally binary in nature. They either work out quickly and dirtily or go horribly...
With IVR (implied volatility rank) at 69 (ThinkOrSwim 52-Week), OIH offers a premium selling opportunity here. Keep in mind that it is an oil services ETF, so if you already have oil/petroleum/exploration plays on, it would probably be advisable to pass on this trade, since in all likelihood it will be closely correlated with instruments like USO, XLE, and XOP,...