I'm starting a new position into some tickers to use THETA as our main income generator:.
The goal is 30% return/year
Sell Puts Delta 5/10/15
55/45/ 40 DTE
Trades/Day = +6
Trades/Week = +30
Trade/Year = +1560
Credit/Trade = +$110.00
Book Size = 3.53%
Book Wipe Risk = 7.06%
Black Sawn Risk = 49.45%
PCR = 35%
Avg DIT = 15
Delta/Theta Ratio = 0.5 (hard to keep...
Here are the past 7 weeks of PVI Volatility Ranges for SPX . The Ranges are computed every weekend from a myriad of data points and ratios (Index, Volatility variations, SKEW, HV, IV, etc...)
We compute the ranges on the weekend, along with our roadmap & Game Plan for the week ahead. Some of us enter their first tranche on Sunday nights or early Monday (depending...
GBPUSD is currently bearish on the Higher timeframe(4h+) but bullish on the lower timeframe(15min). I have marked out two zones that will be great opportunities to sell if approached. If a lower timeframe confirmation is seen I will enter sells. Remember do not stick to predictions but REACT!
*SOLD $SECPUTS on CRWD (1DTE)(1 day to expiry) 180 strike for .24c (1DTE) bought them back next day for .01c ( so + .23c profit)
180 Strike based off order flow and option positioning + weekly Resistance level. As well as Overall market in a positive gamma environment, so decided to PUNT some premium to take advantage of contracted Vol and theta
Morning Options Sellers. Its hard to find good premium these days with the absolute volatility crush this past month, however I like this play in Twitter. Sell the May 21 16-delta strangle in $TWTR for $222 in premium per one-lot. That means selling the 85 CALL and selling the 60 PUT. Delta at position opening here is actually flat to slightly bearish, but starts...
I'm not sure if SPX is going to continue doing what it has been for most of the week as usually the last day of the week can be a turnaround day. SO I've drawn up a lot on this chart that I've hidden but, I'm looking for two thigs to happen and either way I don't think it can go wrong.
1. The day starts at 9:30 a.m NY time and it moves up into the box I have set...
EARNINGS:
M (87/58) announces earnings this week and has the most appropriate rank/implied volatility metrics for a contraction play.
Pictured here is a narrow short strangle in the September monthly that is almost a short straddle, set up this way primarily because M is trading at 19.43, which Is smack dab in the middle of the short strikes. It's paying 2.25...
Pictured here is the only earnings announcement-related volatility contraction play with the metrics I'm looking for: greater than 70% rank and greater than 50% 30-day (it was 68/55 as of Friday close). Setup Metrics: 3.40 credit, break evens at 20.60/27.40, -8.20 delta, 3.1 theta.
Obvious alternatives would be the April 18th 21/27 short strangle paying 1.21...
Personally, I'm not doing a ton here beyond looking at cleaning up remaining December cycle setups and evaluating whether there are poo piles that should be looked at for the taking of tax loss in the margin account before year's end. Nevertheless, here's an outline of what's potentially playable in the coming week ... .
ADBE (81/49) announces earnings on...
NVAX is currently expecting some volatility in the near future given by the prices of these options. Here is one with 43 days to expiry with a 46% margin or error! These incredible numbers translates into 15% cash on cash return in 43 days if not assigned! The delta of this option is at 16.44 which means for the writer or seller of this option, you have a...
Another week of wasteland for premium selling, with EWZ again topping the volatility charts for non earnings plays, although I may go small with an IWM setup in the May monthly (it's the most volatile amongst the index ETF's, which ain't saying much). I've got one more short-term RUT/IUX setup on that I will need to address, but other than that, it's going to be...
When volatility is low such as it is now in shorter term expiries, you have a couple of different choices when selling premium in broad-based market instruments like SPY, IWM, QQQ, and DIA: (a) sit on your hands, waiting for volatility to pop to a level such that less-than 45 DTE setups are more profitable; or (b) look farther out in time for volatility to...
As with the XOP play, selling premium where the volatility is and that's in gold issues (GDX, GG, GDXJ) and oil (OIH, XOP) right now.
I filled this earlier today for a $98 credit.
The current metrics are:
Probability of Profit: 72%
Max Profit: $90 per contract
Buying Power Effect: Undefined
Notes: At the suggestion of FractalTrader (that you very much for your...
With a paucity of meaningful earnings plays to work this week and having exited all of my Feb index plays, I'm looking for something short-term to bide my time as my core March index setups work themselves out. I'm not yet ready to move into the April monthly (it's still a bit far out) for index setups, so a short duration, high probability setup is a good way to...
