On our analysis as at the 02.07 we indicated that we were short EURUSD and were looking to start taking profit below 1.12. Since then the currency pair has effectively dropped towards 1.12 mainly on the back of a significantly stronger than expected payroll number of 224K jobs added compared to 160K jobs forecast reducing the chances of a rate cut in July. We will...
For the last several months we have seen the USD rise against all major currencies and while this was happening we were technically starting to get warning signs of BEARISH DIVERGENCE in the RSI! Fundamentally the US Economy remained strong back then with little worries regarding the trade war and geopolitical issues. The markets thought that the economy wont be...
Fed’s monetary policy vector changes, the pressure between the US and Iran has reached a critical level, the overall high level of investor concern led to the fact that gold almost reached 1140 yesterday. As a result, an increasing number of traders and analysts are turning into purchases. In particular, Marc Chandler from Bannockburn Global Forex believes that a...
Markets to Look at Consumer Confidence and Powell's Diffidence for Direction Last week's record highs in the markets were driven by the Fed's stand on standing pat on the interest rates. Today's consumer confidence numbers could throw some light onto their rationale. And, Chairman Powell's remarks later today (at 1pm ET) could be what the markets are looking for...
Describing yesterday cannot fail to mention that the markets are still following the current trends. The short dollar is one of them. The Fed's policy was criticized by Mr. Trump again. Also, praising himself Tump could not but notice that June may be turn out to be a fruitful one. The pressure that has been put on the fed carries a goal, the achievement of which...
Gold made a BIG move yesterday at Asian Session, that makes it move 300 pips in less than 3 minutes. I researched that the reason behind of this is the delayed Trade War talks of the United States and China. Now the Investors are shifting their equity into the safe haven assets just like Japanese Yen and one of it is Gold. In long term XAUUSD is being seen as...
On our analysis on the 04.06 we indicated that we were still short ahead of the ECB meeting but EURUSD went up after the ECB did not hint at any potential future rate cuts as anticipated by the market. However, at the ECB forum in Sintra, Mario Draghi indicated that interest rate cuts are a possibility which sent EURUSD tumbling below the 1.11926 Fibonacci level...
On our analysis on the 04.06 when USDJPY was at the Fibonnaci support level at 107.894 we advised that we would start to build a long position. The currency pair has since gone up towards 108.8 last week and consolidated at around 108.6 on the back of stronger than expected retail sales last Friday. The markets are rather subdued ahead of the FOMC meeting on...
A new decline is expected for Aud/Usd, in fact in the last sessions the price stabilized between 78.6% and 100% of the Fibonacci retracement. Speaking about the price it was between the support at 0.675 and the resistance at 0.705. Throughout the summer it should continue to lateralize in this channel as, fundamentally, both the Australian central bank and the FED...
We have seen USDJPY drop recently due to an increase in trade tensions between the US and China which has put downward pressure on the dollar and increased demand for the Yen which is a safe haven currency. Additionally, the expected rate cut in the US due to fears over the economy has put added pressure on the currency pair as the benchmark 10-year Treasury's...
The EUR/USD currency pair is moving in a descending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, and prices have just broken out of a counter trend (ascending channel) on the 1-hour timeframe. I expect further downside of the pair after a small consolidation (breather/correction/pause) in the form of a bear flag pattern. However note that prices might skip this stage if bears...
Here selling EURUSD ahead of the Brexit pantomime. We have completed the retrace since the ECB flows and it is time to start getting back to work on the sell-side in Europe. From a technical perspective, we are trading the remainder to the downside of the 2nd wave. Inside this wave 2 we have just completed an ABCDE pattern and it is time to break to the downside....
EUR/USD price broke again the resistance, we recommend a long entrance with a target of 1,133 / 1,138 with timing not exceeding 2-3 days. Then, once there is a rejection with daily confirmation, reposition short in the short period (a few weeks) with the target area between the 1.10 and the 1.08.. It is returning to the side channel that has been stalling since...
The price of usd/jpy is not able to break up the static resistance. This because of the macro scenario we can find around the us economy. We can find the minor one around 111.90. From here it is channeled again into a very short/short-term downtrend. That should bring it back to test the dynamic support area. As this movement is one of the most common in this...
All of them break the key short-term resistance. After having passed that period of weakness characterized by bearish sessions, as we expected after Powell's conference. The three downtrends, which were due to start on March 20th post-FED, did not reach the respective support areas where we had hypothesized the target zones. As regards SP500, when price was at...
The removal of 2019 hikes is worth highlighting because it does not fully support the story we are being told from macro data meaning the bar is set high for any further hikes. History tells us it’s very unusual for the Fed to pause for a long time in hiking cycles before resuming meaning this is likely the end of hikes in the cycle. See tradingview for a more...
On the monetary side, Fed taking the spotlight so let’s start digging into the details… Expecting the Fed to lower the “dots” signalling one hike in 2019 … a “one and done” approach. June seems unlikely now as the Fed has started to focus on inflation to keep equity markets happy. My base case is for a hike in December meaning the dollar looks underpriced at...
In line with other major global index, in the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index. The price reached the resistance area between 21450 and 21550 points. A break on the upside would have led to a continuation of this uptrend up to the next resistance zone located between 21700 and 21900 points. A rejected, ( because as we said "In the short term...