Geopolitical Headlines or Economic Releases to Dominate this Week?
Expect a lot of headlines involving the United Nations, the unfolding Trump-Ukraine scandal, and key economic releases this week (Consumer Confidence, Advance Trade Balance, GDP number, Durable Goods, and PCE Core).
Which one of these could drive the markets which way is anybody's guess, but our...
No Bad News is Good News, For Now
With the Fed in the rear view mirror(?), the trade dispute rhetoric appearing to be cooling off (could change with one tweet, though), and the geopolitical headlines not portending the sky falling off...markets are sporting a buoyant bias this morning.
In the absence of major macro drivers and in the light of the weekly option...
Spike in Overnight Funding Rates an Anomaly or the Tip of the Iceberg?
The Fed has announced their operation in the overnight funding market today morning to arrest the spike in their rates - third time in as many days. The last time they had to do this was in 2008. Observers are scratching their heads to figure out just what might be going on - is this a...
Interest Rates and Powell to Trump Everything Else Today
The geopolitical scenario hasn't changed dramatically over the last couple of days, but the markets' focus will be entirely on the FOMC rate decision and outlook today. While the 25 basis point cut is almost a given, the outlook for future rate cuts is going to be the key that determines the market...
Oil and Geopolitics to Trump the Fed this Week? - Day 2
The Saudi Refinery attack over the weekend sent the Oil prices to the stratosphere yesterday, and the geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran are rising. Yet, the price action in equities has not been as panicky as one would expect, possibly owing to an underlying "optimism" that the Fed this week has to take...
Oil and Geopolitics to Trump the Fed this Week?
The Saudi Refinery attack over the weekend is sending Oil prices to the stratosphere overnight, and the geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran are rising. Yet, the overnight futures action is not as panicky as one would expect, possibly owing to an underlying "optimism" that the Fed this week has to take into...
This Friday the 13th to Spook the Bears?
The trade optimism and the surrounding rhetoric is increasing the positive momentum in the markets, and it could be a self fulfilling prophecy that the markets make new highs soon. Next week's Fed meeting is almost a no news as markets are factoring in a 100% probability for a 25 basis points rate cut. Only a negative...
The Race to The Bottom!
The ECB's announcement on their interest rates and the bond buying program coupled with Trump's demands to follow suit are indications of an unprecedented territory of global negative rates in the not too distant future (Japan has already been there for a while). With no assets around yielding decent returns, would investors rotate heavily...
Results of our models' trading plans, published in the morning, are now available. Anyone can verify/cross-check the triggering of these trades from any source that provides charts.
THE GIST:
Medium-Frequency Models: Lead to 11.4 index points in gains on one short and a close out of a carried long. Open long entered at 2986.7 is carried to the next session with...
When The Nation's Leaders Engage in their "Boneheadedness" Even on Such a Solemn Day...
Most of the nation is scratching their heads and searching their souls in embarrassment and pain with the President's tweet about the "boneheads" at Fed, on the morning of such a solemn day as the 9/11! Is our national fabric changed forever since that dark day and are we...
Reality Check - not Rhetoric - to Determine the Market Direction...Sooner or Later
The "optimism" fed by rhetoric and spin seems to be slowly giving way to reality check or waiting for the reality check - whether it be on the trade war or on the state of economy. The markets stalled yesterday, apparently tired of the "optimism" rhetoric induced run up the last...
When Markets Appear Hunky-Dory...
The gloom and doom apparently pervasive on the markets from just a few days back looks and feels like ages ago, with the new found (fed) "optimism" about the trade war and the surrounding rhetoric. Investors may be lulled into feeling optimistic about the markets, but there is a lot going on across the pond this week, and then we...
Results of our models' trading plans, published in the morning, are now available. Anyone can verify/cross-check the triggering of these trades from any source that provides charts.
THE GIST:
Medium-Frequency Models: Lead to -0.3 index point in loss on one long trade, and one open long (entered at 2974.6, with 9-point trailing stop anchored at...
The Baffled Bear: "Trade Negotiations New News"?!
The market bears are baffled by its rise last two sessions on what could be described as "new old news": China and US agreeing to negotiate (again)! Those who are on the right side are feeling smart for "predicting" the rise.
The 2926 level our models have been monitoring is now clearly in the rear view, and the...
Results of our models' trading plans, published in the morning, are now available. Anyone can verify/cross-check the triggering of these trades from any source that provides charts.
THE GIST:
Medium-Frequency Models: Lead to -11.8 index points in losses on two long and two short trades.
Aggressive, Intraday Models: Lead to +1.7 index points in gains on six...
Its All About Hong Kong this Morning!
The Hang Seng was up significantly overnight on the news that Carrie Lam has announced that she was scrapping the controversial extradition law. US indices are up in sympathy. “How long would this last?” is the question on everyone’s mind, but the indices are shooting up for now.
Given that nothing has changed with respect...
Results of our models' trading plans, published in the morning, are now available. Anyone can verify/cross-check the triggering of these trades from any source that provides charts.
THE GIST:
Medium-Frequency Models: No trades triggered today.
Aggressive, Intraday Models: Lead to +5.2 index points in gains on ten long and ten short trades. The high number of...
Be Wary of These Choppy Markets
The US-China trade war does not seem to go away anytime soon (until some "leaders" hopefully learn that shewing and bullying does not make for "negotiating" strategies or tactics). Friday's market action indicated that our models' often cited level of 2926 is still a major resistance for the upside.
Our models are back to the...
