After 5days higher EUR$ Statistically is a 80th percentile sell opportunity - the monetary policy minutes were dovish on the margin reiterating and stressing the ECB's willingness to "Boost stimulus again if needed". This should put downside pressure on EUR given september meeting is coming up (when most likely to add to easing).
EURAUD and EURUSD shorts here look...
FOMC minutes were neutral-dovish on the margin as expected, with members split on calls for further rate hikes - though there was a general consensus that the Fed needed to acumulate more data before moving on rates (this could be dovish given in real time data has been poor). Several wanted more confidence on inflation, since this is the casewe know inflation...
The RBA was relatively neutral on the margin, keeping their inflation targets the same at 1.5-2.5. However, unfortunately for aussie shorts the RBA didnt offer any forward guidence on sentiment towards further easing, or specific reference to the aussie FX level - despite there being a strong bid bias brewing in the aud$ cross post-25bps cut. Also their forecasts...
AM 2:30GMT Ausssie Inflation prints are released these are key for determining their August Policy Decision
1. IMO a 1.0%yoy CPI print shows a further 0.3% contraction in their yearly CPI, this should be sufficient to push the RBA to cutting their OCR by 25bps, similarly a 0.3%qoq CPI will be needed in conjunction to show that inflation is growing at a slow...
On the margin RBA remained in line with previous meetings, adding little but still keeping it on the dovish side imo. Once again, as in previous minutes (and from several other central banks) RBA continued to communicate the necessity of "watching key data" to drive future policy decisions. Interestingly though, they also mentioned the negative impact of a strong...
June FOMC Minutes Highlights:
- FOMC Minutes: Fed Officials Divided on Rate Path Amid Uncertain Economic Outlook
-FOMC Minutes: Members Said Prudent to Wait for More Labor Market Data, Brexit Vote Before Raising Rates
-FOMC Minutes: Prior to Brexit Vote, Staff Saw Uncertainty Holding Down Investment in U.K.
-FOMC Minutes: Members Judged It Appropriate to...
USDJPY: On 15 minutes chart, we have Bearish Gartley Pattern. If TP1 hit, then move SL to breakeven.
ENTRY: 120.535
TP1: 120.440
TP2: 120.406
SL: 120.630
OuO : Over and Under Pattern. It's similar to Head & Shoulders, but less strict about the distribution/accumulation pattern.
Forex is risky, beware of consequences if you trade on other people's ideas.
AUDUSD sellers are testing the waters below the wedge bottom and looking to take out the April 21 low, 7682. A break below there would target the multi-year lows around .7550. On the other hand, a false break/trip back above the wedge top, would negate the wedge and suggest pair is actually ranging. We are short from .7756 with a breakeven plus 2 stop - ready for...
AUDUSD Carved a higher low around .7680 which clouds our bias a little but we believe shorts are still valid against the Right Shoulder/Wedge Top/Head. We were trailed out at .7736 for 2 pips and will be looking to re-short soon.
$AUDUSD Despite gapping higher on further Chinese stimulus, bulls were unable to take out the head of a Head & Shoulders topping pattern and the neckline was broken late Monday. Pair declined steadily Tuesday on back of a dovish speech from Governor Stevens and RBA minutes. Pair is currently pulling back from the lows and traders will be looking to short the...
Entered Long GBPAUD at 1.83295 (200-Hour Smoothed MA and also 23.6% of 1.72134-1.86828)
Fundamental:
With BoE minutes/ RBA Speech/ Australia CPI inflation coming out, volatility should ensue.
USD weakness has caused both GBP and AUD to be at elevated levels. Feels AUD more so after better than expected China GDP, IP, etc. numbers.
Technical:
AUDUSD has been in...
Looking at the USD/CAD chart there is a lot of action. Another trade has presented itself with another good swing. I feel that when the pattern complete it will trade sideways a little before it drops off the edge of the cliff to test prior lows. Again almost a 4 to 1 risk reward. A clean trade in my opinion
