This level since November 2023. I have been waiting for the break as it should be the first sign of what comes next. This is a backwards adjusted chart, however, it is likely confirming the market high from last Friday. A close below this level today should began the clock on the prior analyses attached to this idea
Early guess of the bottom is between November 2024 and March 2025 which relatively falls in line with the originally projected bottom from July 4, 2022.
This is where Cycle B has topped thus far. It was in the larger target area from my December 13, 2023 analysis, albeit at the tail end of the box.
Time for the study models.
1 - MOVEMENT EXTENSION STUDY
The...
Once the last theory busted it was a return to the drawing board. I am now postulating we are back in Cycle wave B which I thought had been completed as initially forecasted during the summer 2023 (high was end of July). Not only was 4607 busted a few days back, it was blown out of the water today. What does this mean? With Cycle wave B now being larger than...
I am bearish again already (surprise)! The terror in the Red Sea could be the tipping point for future economic calamity now that multiple companies have chosen the longer path to market around South Africa.
Going on the premise Minor wave 4 dropped with a quiet whimper, we are possibly in the final Minor wave 5 up. First task is to identify potential tops. The...
Last night I posited 3 theories:
1) We are still in Intermediate wave A up
2) Intermediate wave C (and Primary wave 2 up) will end this week
3) The market topped last Friday at the close
I went into theories 2 and 3 last night but wanted to dedicate more time to theory 1 which will occur here. I first placed the Minor waves (yellow) where they likely ended. I...
The movement of the past week has raised many questions as to where the market is which we will attempt to answer in this analysis.
The long duration Intermediate wave A, followed up with a quick and tiny drop for Intermediate wave B presented characteristics I have compared to similar historical events. The best way to categorize this pattern is by comparing Wave...
The Minor wave 4 end point will determine if Minor wave 5 (and Intermediate wave A) ends this week. This corrective wave has been tremendous, but possibly too fast. Minor wave 3 thus far has already broken above the preliminary estimates for the end of Intermediate wave A. The initial Intermediate wave A locations were based on the idea Primary wave 2 would last...
The index never dropped today, which points to the second thesis that we were already in the final Minor wave 5 upward. The SP:SPX is not clear on position and waves, however, the futures are much clearer. This 15 minute chart outlines the possible Minor wave 4 path from start to finish along with current position in Minor wave 5.
The bottom for the market...
With our newest program online, we will relook at the market top from an hourly data viewpoint based on historical wave relationships. The first set will determine the expected behavior of Intermediate wave 5, and then Primary wave C will be examined. Current belief is the market is in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave...
Rescaling Minor wave 1 to the top on June 30, and the low three days later as Minor wave 2 would put market in or near the end of Minor wave 3 up. Based on models ending in C53, Minor wave 3 could last 6 days, with second model agreement at 9 days, third agreement is back at 2 and 4 days. Least agreement is shared at 11, 13, 21, and 30 days. Today is day 9 and...
If we are in the final Intermediate wave 5 up in Cycle wave B, it is possible we are in the final Minor wave up (wave 5) as well. This would mean Minor waves 1 and 2 lasted a single day, wave 3 was 2 days and wave 4 was 3 days. The original projections for Intermediate wave 5 are the vertical white lines marking the end of day 10 and day 12 as well as the movement...
Now that we have returned to Primary wave C in Cycle wave B up, the new forecasted top is contained herein. This will likely extend the final drop into later 2024 than initially proposed in the last analysis since Cycle wave B will likely last an additional month and go higher. We are most likely in the final Intermediate wave 5 up, while it is slightly possible...
FOR THE FULL ANALYTICAL RIGOR THAT IS WORTH READING START HERE (otherwise skip to the section titled if you only care about the future “START HERE IF YOU SKIPPED THE TOP”)
It has been a long year since we got the program working, calculating probabilities, and identifying where we likely were in time. Sometime early 2022, I realized what would happen if we took...
Now that last week has settled, it looks like PATH TWO was the chosen path from
Like most of my analyses the original analysis is normally the correct one. Most premature analyses tend to rush a process that should otherwise be left alone. What does this mean? Intermediate wave 2 was later than initially projected and did not go as low per
In fact, the...
With the likely conclusion of Minor waves (yellow numbers) 1 and 2, I am providing a short-term update. I have taken the final values from both of these waves to forecast the end of Minor wave 3. I originally had the entirety of Intermediate wave (pink numbers) 1 ending by April 6 around 4112, but that will now likely occur a little later. The centermost wave...
The bottom was on track timewise from my last analysis, however, the bottom was not as low as projected. Intermediate wave C inside of Primary wave B ended higher than I would have liked but 86% retracement of an A wave in an overall corrective wave is not unusual. Here is the estimated path to the high. Analysis of historical data has Primary wave C lasting 34-67...
We have been working to finish Minor 5 since earlier today which will also end Intermediate wave C and Primary wave 4. Afterward the market will likely find new 52-week lows somewhere around 3400 by September/October of this year. By dissecting Intermediate wave C so far, we notice Minor wave 1 (yellow) was approximately 14 hours long and Minor wave 3 was only 10...
