Following today's Service/ Manufacturing PMI miss (worst contraction in 88 months - since 2009) the Sterling market has come under significant pressure as BOE rate cut expectations increase with OIS rates markets pricing a 94% chance of a 4th Aug cut vs 85% before the PMI's were released. Further, the PMI misses has attracted attention from UK Politicians e.g....
GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECT 3 RBNZ RATE CUTS OF 25BP APIECE IN AUG, NOV AND MAR. In a scheduled "Economic Update" published on Thursday, the RBNZ signalled a significant strengthening in its easing bias, and dovish shift across its views on domestic inflation and domestic/global growth. At the heart of many of these changes is renewed concern about the elevated NZD. In...
IMO Mark Carney was very dovish on the margin, certainly reinforcing their/ my view of an August cut being 90% on the table. The most supportive statements were "MonPol Important In Cushioning Effects Of Any Relapse In Recovery In Months & Quarters Ahead", "The MPC Does Not Have The ''Luxury '' and "More Should Be Done To Cushion The Effects Of Negative Shocks" -...
FOMC Lockhart was the 4th Fed this week to imo be relatively Hawkish with his words, most notably reinforcing with the others brexits near-term stability saying "Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy" and " So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly". Most interestingly though was Lockharts view on the FOMC's positioning for future rate...
Bullard is the lone Fed official forecasting just one additional rate increase, and expects modest growth over the next two and a half years. But he reiterated Tuesday he's not expecting the economy to head south. However, did go out of his way to mention a relatively dovish point "We Have Some Ammunition if We Need it During Next Recession". Nonetheless he...
IMO FOMC George was largely bullish/ Hawkish $ on the margin; surprisingly coming out and stating for one of the first times that "Fed rates are too low" and "Not Raising Rates in June Was Due to Timing Issues" - these two statements imo hint that a hike coUuld be on the cards earlier than perhaps was expected (Dec), in-light of his opinion of them being too low...
BUY USDJPY @106.5 or @107.0 - SL @105 - TP @109-11 based on: $YEN's historical most important support level - The 105.5 Key level will more than likely hold as it has many times before - At 105.5 there are 3 significant UNSUCCESSFUL tests of the level over the last 3 years thus it is a great entry point. Also another plus is if you look at the monthly chart...
Fundamentals:- Fundamentals:- There is still the divergence between the two central banks where the BoJ are willing to do anything to get inflation back up to 2% and the US FED are in a rate rising cycle. The JPY is being used as a safe haven currency and can strengthen at any risk off point in the market. We still expect a correction in the USD/JPY throughout the...
Fundamentals: - Mixed data from Canada last week with a tick up in unemployment and worse than expected employment change. However the rally in Oil did help the Canadian strengthen for a period of time last week. I don’t think the Canadian can maintain a positive rally, once the data starts to be absorbed by the market we should see this pair return to the upside...
The PMI reading have still been off target for the UK which is weighing on the GBP. we expect to see continued downside to 14400 where support should kick in and cause a degree of consolidation until then we are looking for resistance levels to enter for a sell the next being at 14800. Learn to trade like a pro boafx.com
Looking to buy the USDCAD after the Oil price again failed to hold onto its gains. The breakout of the rising channel is an opportunity for the breakout to prove as support when it pulls back and present us with a buying opportunity. We will be looking for the width of the channel as a price target i.e. around 100pips. Trade like a pro boafx.com