At the start of 2016 the PBOC began aggressively devaluing the off-shore Yuan against the USD, imo in an attempt to start the year with a competitive export:import advantage - with the aim of making 2016 a headline "come back" year for China amid the growing GDP growth and Credit bubble worries. As a result Equities across the board sold-off (-8.5% in a few...
Now that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts. My Plan & Expectations USDJPY 1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10. -UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the...
GBPUSD - At the end of last week GU traded to lows of 1.32 on the brexit vote, before retracing substantially to 1.39 by the end of the day. - GU retraced 600-700pips after the brexit event IMO solely as investors took profit from their shorts (which causes buying) - thus there was no structural reason for GU recovering e.g. it was that 1.32 had mispriced GU...
Indicators to check BEFORE GBP Shorting for confirmation I also suggest using two other key pieces of information BEFORE shorting GBP. 1. Use USDJPY as a measure of market risk appetite and stability - As you can see below UJ has traded with a tight 38pip range vs GBP$ at 180pips. Therefore we can use UJ as a measure of stability and risk appetite: 1)...
Thought id put a piece out as my guide for the week for how to trade the 23rd UK EU Referendum vote. IMO the first rule and most important is - DONT TRADE THE VOTE. Trying to guess the answer is like trying to win the lottery, so instead i advise taking a position on the volatility , as volatility doesnt discriminate, it trades both ways. Trading the...
We had the best possible outcome for FOMC's Rate decision and Fed Yellens speech which was neutral IMO as expected, with the Economic Projections being dovish, downgrading the projected rate hike cycle. We now look to BOJ. Trading strategy: LONG USDJPY (possibly short also GBPJPY for longer term investors or investors that want to hedge against a hawkish...
In the first 2 hours of trading UJ managed to carve 30 pips lower to 106.3 but since then UJ has edged higher to 106.8 highs (atm 106.7). Whether we will hit the target at 105. im not sure, the starting data has been mixed. Whilst we ticked lower 40 pips which was a good sign, we quickly pulled back all of them and $yen is now trading 50 pips up from the lows -...
Google C-Class shares i am bullish over the 6-12m, hence I am buying any 5-10% pull backs from highs. Goog has been moving sideways but i think it has just started a cycle higher, in which it is about to make a higher low at 715 before moving up again to 750+ 715-750 is a 5% move hence i am interesting in buying at this price with reward skewed something 1.5:1...
Though id post as just one example, perhaps the most obvious, that shows how heavily the JPY is considered a risk-off asset and to show the clearly, since the SPX is a risk-on asset, that the JPY is negatively correlated with the SPX. In times of market fear/ uncertainty, YEN is sought out, just like bonds and gold, as a safe heaven asset. The theory behind this...
as you can see below 8/12 months of the time the JPY is heavily negatively correlated with the spx, normally between 80-90%, there also is a pattern, that the JPY/SPX stayd negatively correlated for 8 months before turning positively correlated for about 4 months, this cycle continues unbroken below.. as we can see by the red correlation being above 0, The...
somethings not right - All time low volume too, JPY booming, Bonds rallying - low liquidity is artificially driving the market up??? The market will tank soon... the financial conditions are gonna tighten like post 2009 this bull move isnt backed by non-risk assets in true bull markets we see 3 things 1. Low GOLD 2. LOW JPY 3. Low US Bonds today we only see 1....
If that next order block doesn't hold The Dollar looks likes it could be pushing for another leg up, reaching for liquidity just above 96.40 if it gets there. Could be looking at some divergence on the way up. Waiting for the Sell signal. Also, if you notice the times of all the arrows, do not think that is just coincidence do you? Institutional Order programs...
This is what I'm looking at for BTCUSD3M on OKcoin. We have the area 360-365 which is a +OB, nice confluence with FIB OTE. We recently made two pretty much equal lows.We should have liquidity below, people who got in at +-360 and moved there stops below these recent lows are an easy target for the MM/woodchipper. If we hit this area and trade away from it...
The chart explains itself, EURGBP-0.07% went up and it seems that it's now forming a sell model. I think it will be going for the weekly liquidity.
ODFL is a good trending stock, but volume is fairly thin. This can affect liquidly when entering and exiting trades. The weekly uptrend has been long and linear - the pullbacks have become a little deeper but are more than acceptable on this timeframe. On the daily chart, however, the pullbacks have caused a bit more of a concern. During early 2014 there were...
Above i have drawn out my thoughts on time symmetry and bearish cycles in the Crude Oil market. Though in a long term bullish structure on the weekly and monthly, at the tops of these weekly bullish cycles, we see extended bearish cycles, or an "Unwinding" of long positions. We are currently in the process of another of these unwinding cycles. The Willy21MA13...