Just an observation on the real estate ETF while I was reading up on the US mortgage debt and its connection to real estate stocks. Intriguing as I learn more this. IYR is in an very interesting spot. Apparently, the current mortgage debt levels are similar to levels leading up to the 2008 crash. fred.stlouisfed.org
Overall we are seeing some weakness in the market right now. Something that we're seeing is a lot of the sector/stocks have rejected the 21 period moving average, which tells me that there's a somewhat good chance that we might go test the lows that were created 2 weeks ago. This stock KB HOME INC is an example of a stock that has rejected that 21 period moving...
The Implied Volatility Rank of IYR is at 65 and with a down move of around 6% in the last 20 days, I expect we are going to start a correction soon around the value area. So I decided to sell a Strangle to collect some premium. With 37 days to expiration I Sold the 80/76 Strangle for 0.95 credit. That will give me a 58% probability to make money, but if I close...
$IYR, $DRN looking for new bottom before continuation. Stay tuned for March!
Hi guys. I don't own real estate being a headache as it is but I gladly look at the real estate index when it seems to hit some support. Cultivating politeness, love, and light brings us positive vibrations. Thank you friends. P.S. Confirmations matter (e.g. higher low and higher high).
Hi guys. Here's another humble idea of mine. I think it's enough for today. See you tomorrow.
EARNINGS The earnings on tap aren't looking very enticing to me, as I generally look at getting in on these where the implied volatility rank is >70% and the background implied volatility is >50%. However, they might be worth watching running into earnings to see if implied ramps up. KMI (implied volatility rank 79/implied volatility 30) announces earnings on...
I have touched on this topic before in separate posts, but thought I'd refresh the notion of what I like to call "strategic acquisition" here, since I get repeatedly asked about how I go about acquiring shares in an underlying I actually really do want to buy and hold, usually for an indefinite period of time (we're talking years here). The focus of these...
With a low Implied volatility rank of 15 in the real estate ETF I decided to make a directional bet with a debit put spread. This is a low probability trade, but will add some negative deltas to my portfolio. It does have a decent R:R of almost 2:1 so at least I will get paid when I am right and my risk is defined. Bought a Vertical debit put spread on IYR for...
This one looks especially nice, especially when seen from the weekly TF.
... for a 2.79 credit. Here, I'm looking to add to core exchange-traded fund fly positions in underlyings whose implied volatility is high relative to where it's been over the preceding six months (>70th percentile) There aren't many out there at the moment, and this is one of them. Notes: Unfortunately, I forgot to write down the metrics for this fella while...
I had intended to put on a similar setup last week, but got distracted by something else ... . Implied volatility rank remains high here, even though IYR's background implied volatility isn't that great. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 44% Max Profit: $343/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $357/contract Break Evens: 71.57/78.43 Notes: The probability of...
Rotating into sector exchange traded funds ... . Although this instrument does not have very high background IV, its IV is on the high end of its 52-week and 6-month ranges. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 44% Max Profit: $335/contract Max Loss: $265/contract Break Evens: 71.65/78.35 Notes: Will look to manage at 25% max profit, if I can get a fill here.
Looks to be retesting a key level before possibly turning back up and continue it's larger bullish trend. RSI at previous bounce level. Watch for ADX to turn up
IFFF I am seeing this right a break down here could lead to an extend major drop. Consider shorting if there is a close below 77.78 with a stop on a close >79.75 (Friday's high).
The first part of this week I think will have a overall positive atmosphere for stocks so we could have a some bounche up but longer term I think there is a good chance we are entering into a bear phase for real estate.