With VXX fast rising against the resistance, RSI is approaching short term overbought zone, meanwhile, IWM is sitting right on a support line that has been formed since Nov. 2013. If this support line can hold for today, I expect a IWM rebound early next week. Otherwise this line may become new resistance.
First sell signal since July 2012, similar to that of July 2007. What make it a sell signal?
. Price below 10 month MA, and
. 3 EMA below 5 EMA, and
. RSI support broke, below 70, and
. MACD negative, and
. Stoch below 80
This sell signal most likely is valid because today is the last day of July. Note that market does not go one way straight, there will be up...
A comparison between June-September 2011 and today. There is good possibility that IWM drops 5 percent from today's level. Watch RSI and MACD and TLT direction carefully in the next couple of weeks.
Friends,
This past June 04th, I released three forecast targets, namely:
1 - TG-1 = 115.52 - 04 JUN 14
2 - TG-2 = 117.83 - 04 JUN 14
and
3 - TG-Hi = 119.72 - 04 JUN 2014.
(See recent analysis that generated these targets here: )
As of today's close (Monday, 09 JUN 2014), the first target got steam-rolled then used as a springboard (pink arrow) for further...
Friends,
Screening $IWM through my predictive/forecasting model, the following three targets were generated:
1 - TG-1 = 115.52 - 04 JUN 2014
2 - TG-2 = 117.83 - 04 JUN 2014
and
3 - TG-Hi = 119.72 - 04 JUN 2014.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING ORIGIN:
These forecast targets are defined using the same predictive/forecasting model that produced all of my...
IWM broke out today. It may be forming a rising RSI channel that may dictate trading actions in the coming days. All technicals appear to be healthy. 10 DMA is now pointing up.
Though market looks toppy, there is still a good chance it can bounce up and climb even higher. July 2007 to October 2007 period is an example. But watch the red support lines carefully.
At Fib retracement of last sell off - Overall still bearish chart but can we get an intermediate rally to cloud or we fail and attempt lower low like two previous occasions?
It appears to be a good time to buy into the market when IWM/SPY ratio RSI reached this low. at least for short term like several weeks. I think patience is still needed before a solid base is formed as the market still hesitates.
In 2008, the IWM completed a head and shoulders top two months before the SPY and DIA did, effectively predicting the coming crash in the SPY. Is the same happening today?
A quick chart for TNA...abcd could be in the cards.
Has retraced a 61.8 and bouncing.
I'm early in on 1st long position
Safe trading Ladies & Gents
BM
After posting chart: ( The fib should have been at the exactly top - then a perfect spot on 61.8 retrace could be seen)
So far so good... hopefully the red support lines and the 10 day MA can hold, but the pink support line must hold, otherwise the "cat bounce" story is over and the drop will continue.
2007 and 2011 had a nice bounce after initial drop. Are we going to have a same one this time? Do not know. Given many people are shorting (including myself), and sentiment is so negative, I think it might be possible (short squeeze ?)
Also it appears TLT is right on support right now, and hopefully it will bounce up (instead of breaking down). So watch it carefully.
SPY has formed a shooting star Doji near a all time high, which is likely to form tomorrow. A red candle tomorrow would confirm an evening star reversal pattern. Also notice the mini Head and shoulder within the larger Head and shoulder pattern. The major resistance and support levels are labelled @ 184.62. 181.31 and 174.03, would be places to take profits at...
Used this chart to start short positions three times so far at 1,618 fib area, backed by bearish divergence.
Bullish wick at 50 fib area is be aware of and evaluate positions and risk. Reverse bullish divergence might help a higher beta performance this coming week.
Cheers and the best of luck
Panos
It' hard to narrow down exactly where the QQQ's could hit resistance, since the SPY/DIA are still above their pivots. But I have two tentative points. Either we test the 50 ema and sell or form a H&S pattern. Both scenarios will favour my bullish gold thesis. Although i prefer the former. (as GDX is at it last level of retracement before turning bearish.) The...
