Another strong rally today, and it appears IWM closed above 2014 trading range. If tomorrow has a strong close, RSI breaks out, MACD turns positive, will close my short (with losses) and flip to long. Other positive signs: . closed well above 10 day MA. . 10 day MA is turning up.
Before FOMC, I believed IWM was poised to break thru fib ext 1.618 at 118.15. Now in two days, I now have a short term excess supply signal as IWM tested down. Circumstances changed. I have changed with them. I expect the fib 1.5x as a target 112.07. Back and fill.
. red support broke, retested and rejected. . first time close below 10 day MA on 11/14 since 10/15 market reversal. . MACD turned negative. . RSI and stoch are turning downward and made lower low. . R2FI is flat and has a chance to roll over in coming days. . 10 day MA is flat and has a chance to roll over in coming days. Overall impression: it is weak, and time...
IWM monthly chart (log scale). Note it retested the resistance and now is going side way, it is still above 10 month MA. Credit: Chris Kimble. blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com
channel breakout (see the tiny shoot). This may open the door for pushing even higher. Volume is really low though.
Grinding higher, but approaching channel resistance and technically stretched. If breaking out, it may retest all time high. Bears be patient.
It still has some room to wiggle to the upper resistance of the blue channel. Two most important things to watch for . if the red support line can hold . if the blue upper channel line can hold.
Price went above 10 month MA and a buy signal was issued (EMA 3 crossed above EMA 5). Price action is bullish. RSI and MACD are still bearish (they seem to be improving). Note these are lagging indicators.
$IWM used the last day before FOMC to catch up with its fellow indexes with a strong rally. The chart shows that $IWM has reached a very interesting zone for those who think that this aggressive pullback in indexes is just a pullback. Downtrend line, 61.8 Fib retracement level and Daily resistance zone are three good reasons to try to short $IWM tomorrow after...
Does this look bullish to you (for short term)? Given the market volatility, I no longer can tell for sure. Rule of thumb is to trade with the main/dominant trend. Good luck!
Gartley level violated and first Butterfly level now reached at 1.272 Fib. It may bounce and reverse to bull trend, or could go to next Butterfly Fib level of 1.618 at price range of 99.00
IWM could be an early indicator that something is wrong with this market. But be highly alerted! The correction right now could be over in a very short time. IWM could be the first ETF to jump high faster than the others.
This is a 120 minutes chart (for better details than daily chart). Though very rough for the past couple of days, a short term bottom seems to be in place now. If I long here I need a tight stop. $113.89 if lucky.
A retest rebound may be underway (may last a month or two), but should be rejected and thus complete the topping process. Note this is speculative in nature. Also note that 10 month MA (200 day MA) is turning downward, meaning main trend may already have changed and thus any rebound may be a counter trend move.
A rebound is coming? Maybe a good idea to buy some with a tight stop (like $107)