Because my layered on setups in SPY are getting "a little busy" as far as number of setups on and their location strike-wise, I figured I'd briefly move my iron condoring to DIA for a little while to allow my SPY setups to clean themselves up (one way or another). Here's a March 18h setup: DIA March 18th 142/146/170/174 iron condor Probability of Profit %:...
I previously described long-term iron condors in SPY in the post below and a way of "dynamically" managing them intratrade to take advantage of price movement during the life of the setup by either (a) rolling the wings as a unit toward current price when delta balancing or (b) rolling oppositional pairs of options (i.e., the short put and the long call/the short...
At this point in time, I've got a goodly number of SPY iron condors on both in time by expiration and layered on in the March 18th expiry. (I also have an April SPY iron condor on that I'm managing "dynamically" by rolling the wings in toward current price when the value of the short option approaches worthless). As you may know, iron condors are made up of two...
I'm continuing to layer on setups both over expirations and in the March 18th expiry. Here's one for the March 11th: SPY 175/178/200/203 Probability of Profit %: 63% Max Profit: .98/$98/contract Buying Power Effect: $202/contract This will be the last setup I put on in SPY between here and the March 18th expiry, except for minor tweaks here and there to balance...
FB announces earnings tomorrow after market close, so look to put on any play in the final hours of the NY session. Here are the two possible plays that may naturally require strike adjustment in light of any movement the underlying experiences during the trading day: FB Feb 5th 81.5/87.5/107/113 $500 BP Iron Condor Probability of Profit %: 69% Max Profit:...
Layering on a bit more Feb SPY action on before this volatility bleeds out of the market (it inevitably does). As usual, it is skewed to the put side due to vol skew on the call side with the short call strike at the edge of the expected move for the expiration (about 75% probability OTM) and the the short put at about the 84% probability OTM strike (the 1...
Truth be told, TLT doesn't really meet my premium selling criteria here: its implied vol rank is 28 over the past 52 weeks, 40 over the past six months, 67 over the past 60 days, and 50 over the past 30. Its implied volatility is under 14. In sum, it's not a good premium selling play. Nevertheless, my tendency is to always have a bit of treasuries on, since...
As I may have previously mentioned, it's my habit to stick with broad index ETF, SPX, or RUT plays when there is sufficient volatility there and to pass over plays in individual underlyings. These SPY plays aren't sexy, unfortunately, and they aren't the kind of "boom, kapow!" plays that earnings are ... . Nevertheless, bread and butter is bread and...
I generally don't do setups that are 10 DTE or less unless they involve earnings plays, but figured I'd use one of these short duration iron condors instead of scalping /ES, which tends to involve a lot of screen time. Here's the setup I put on today at NY open: SPX Feb 5th 1785/1795/1930/1940 Iron Condor Probability of Profit: 60% Max Profit:...
People frequently remark that they don't like to trade underlyings like AMZN, GOOG, or NDX merely because the price of the underlying is "huge." However, unlike trading these underlyings directly -- a totally unworkable if not inadvisable trade for most people, using defined risk options strategies such as iron condors offer a method to trade these behemoths...
BABA announces earnings on Thursday before market open, so look to put on any play in the final hours of the NY session on Tuesday. Here is one possible play that may naturally require strike adjustment in light of any movement the underlying experiences during the trading day: BABA Feb 5th 61.5/78 Short Strangle Probability of Profit %: 70% Max Profit:...
AAPL announces earnings tomorrow after market close, so look to put on a play before the end of NY trading. Here are two possibles: AAPL Feb 5th 84/89.5/110/116 iron condor Probability of Profit %: 66% Max Profit: $93/contract Buying Power Effect: ~$507 Break Evens: 88.57/110.93 AAPL Feb 5th 89.5/110 short strangle Probability of Profit %: 68% Max Profit:...
These earnings plays gone awry usually involve long stories, since it frequently takes a bit of time with rolling, massaging strikes, and such to get the thing into a state where you can exit for at least a scratch. On October 6th, I played earnings via a 2 contract 72/75/90/93 iron condor, for which I received a .94 credit. Price proceeded to breach the short...
As mentioned in the post below, there are several different ways to scale up the size of your trades: widening the spreads of your iron condor wings, increasing the number of contracts used, and well as "going naked" via short strangle. There are also other instruments that can offer you scale for trading the S&P in lieu of SPY -- SPX options and /ES (E-Mini S&P...
NFLX announces earnings on Tuesday 1/19 after market, so look to put on any premium selling play shortly before NY close. Here are two possible setups, which may have to be tweaked, depending on price movement in the underlying: Jan 29 80/128 short strangle Probability of Profit %: 77% Max Profit: $246/contract Buying Power Effect: ~$1041 Break Evens:...
GS announces earnings on Wednesday before open, so look to put on this play before Tuesday market close. Here are the plays: Jan 29 142/170 short strangle Probability of Profit %: 76% Max Profit: $180/contract Buying Power Effect: ~$1749 Break Evens: 140.20/171.80 Jan 29 138/143/167.5/172.5 iron condor Probability of Profit %: 69% Max Profit:...
IBM announces earnings tomorrow after market, so look to put on a play before market close. Here are two possible plays, but I'm looking at these in off hours, so I'm doubtful that the potential credit to be received is accurate, although the strikes, probability of profit, and break even metrics should be fairly accurate (as usual, they may require a strike of...
Next week is literally hopping with potential earnings announcement plays. I've tried to pick out the ones that (1) have > 70% implied volatility rank; (2) offer greater than a 1.00 credit ($100) for the "classic" one standard deviation short strangle setup; (3) have fairly good liquidity with options prices; and (4) offer weeklies, but there are also a few...