MACRO MONDAY 21 NAHB Housing Market Index The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) is compiled from a monthly survey issued by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) to U.S. builders in order to measure the current and forward looking sentiment for single-family homes being built or with the prospect of being built in the U.S. In the survey builders rate...
Party's over. Now comes the bill. Housing prices have experienced an artificial inflated price surge from march 2020 that needs to be corrected. RSI sell signal MACD just crossed the signal and it's bound to change direction. Stochastic RSI at virtual 0 also signals a possible change to a bear market that is still yet to occur, which often happens at...
U.S Building Permits Rep: 1.495m ✅Higher Than Expected ✅ Exp: 1.480m Prev: 1.467m This chart is very similar to the Housing Starts chart I just shared in that it is in a long term uptrend since March 2009 (slightly before above charts April 2009). However there are a few differences. The drop in permits now versus 1998-2000 period is much much sharper. Like...
U.S. Housing Starts Rep: 1,460m ✅Higher Than Expected ✅ Exp: 1.426m Prev: 1.525m (revised down from 1.560m) The chart illustrates that we are on a long term uptrend since April 2009 and this looks like a pull back similar to the pull back from 1998 - 2000 but on a large scale. If we lose the diagonal support I think this would show a real shift in the...
Macro Monday SPDR Home builders ETF (XHB) This equal weighted index tracks 35 holdings of the homebuilders segment of the S&P Total Market Index (TMI) and is spread across large, mid and small cap stocks. These comprise of the Homebuilding sub-industry, and may include exposure to the Building Products, Home Furnishings, Home Improvement Retail, Home furnishing...
CBOT: 30-Year Micro Yield Futures ( CBOT_MINI:30Y1! ), Treasury Bond Futures ( CBOT:ZB1! ) As a result of runaway inflation and rising interest rates, US home buyers are confronted by high home prices, high down payments, and high monthly mortgage payments. A sneak peek into official housing market data between 2021 and 2023: • Median sales price of houses sold...
🐂 Trade Idea: Long - HD 🔥 Account Risk: 1.00% 📈 Recommended Product: Knockout / Option 🔍 Entry: +/- 306.27 🐿 DCA: No 😫 Stop-Loss: 284.29 (or 294.65 for aggressive trade) 🎯 Take-Profit: 327.27 (50%) 🎯 Trail Rest: Yes 🚨🚨🚨 Important: Don’t forget to always wait for strong confirmation once possible entry zone is reached. Trade ideas don’t work all the time no...
Fundamentals Builders FirstSource is in a robust financial situation and very cheaply valued (P/E = 4.6, P/S = 0.6) Since the start of 2011, its revenue has tripled and earnings grew by almost 900%! Even last year when the market was puking, its earning grew by 60% Their profitability is also good with ROE = 55.4% (Industry = 17.9%) and net profit...
I think this is a pretty clear pattern in housing prices. Past performance may not indicate future results, but I'm confident that a pattern with this many cycles and signs of instability at the right time will hold.
Traders, I believe this chart is so important it warrants revisiting the data. Indeed, the fed has to be cognizant of this same data and is most certainly is watching it closely. Therefore, we must do the same. In this video, I am going to explain why the housing market data, even though it's week, supports my thesis of a blow-off top in the stock markets this...
Housing prices yet to adjust to reality of high interest rates Housing prices can be sticky and take multi-years to adjust If the interest rates persist for few years, we can see the downward pressure for next few year Just to be clear this is a multi year cycle.
I noticed Reits having their largest trades EVER in the darkpools yesterday. This is a beautiful chart of Cubesmart and look at it. Housing broke resistance from 2007 in April and has now comeback to test it in Sept-Dec all while institutations are putting out paid ads to spread the doom and gloom. Everyone and their mother is repeating the housing shock. Well if...
Chart posted is very clear to me that at a min we have just started the decline in the housing market at a min we should see another 22% to 37% in all home prices over the next 12 to 18 months
Traders, In this update, I am going to focus mostly on the U.S. Housing Market decline and what it means for the Feds reactionary policies, the U.S. stock markets, crypto, and the future of our U.S. economy. Stew
Mortgage rates are penciling-in to be around 10% on a first mortgage note by Jan/Feb - so everyone with a couple of brain cells to rub together knows what that will do to real estate prices. Some good things will come out of this - like the Gen Z's in the market will get a chance to become homeowners, but in trading terms, this is a very good opportunity. ...
Will the Fed responsibly consider the dis-inflationdata coming in? Or will they continue to try to please the market demands?
I'm looking at XHB weekly timeframe and comparing 2006-2009 US housing market with current situation. On 17 July 2006 XHB bounced 38% then dumped and lost previous swing low/ key support /28-30$ level/ on 23 July 2007/371 days/. When XHB lost key support SPX made first top and second top was 3 months later with bearish divergence, after which S&P dumped 57% and...
I found a lot of similarity's between this crash and the 2008 financial crisis stock market crash. Quick TA summary: 1. We have the same kind of downwards parallel channel 2. The chart of the 2022 crash so far fits pretty well into the 2008 crash, the chart of the 2008 crash fits pretty well into today's chart. Quick Fundamental summary: There are so many reasons...