If count is valid then this is a deep retracement and the last wave down is expected.
50% of waves 1-3 of C comes exactly to 50% of retracement shown (1174).
61.8% of waves 1-3 of C lies between 50 and 61.8% Fib.
So we should watch 1144-1174 as possible area of wave 5 unfolded.
On gold, we are inside of a monthly (1238.23-1205.49) and weekly (1243.13-1205.49) demand zones. There is also a daily supply zone formed just above us but this zone working out is low probability.
We have 2 alternatives that may happen here;
1- Red: We may go to lower timeframes and look for good buying opportunities right now and ride the price till daily supply...
Since it is very low on the altitude for shorts, we should just look for a quick 1:1, not more.
This trade is an aggressive one
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Gold price is expected to make a pull back towards $1,150-$1,190 in order to complete wave 2 down, before the resumption of the larger bullish trend that has started. This scenario gets canceled if Gold price breaks below $1,045 or if the rise from $1,045 turns out to have a corrective pattern.
Currently long at 16.83 but hoping for a melt down. If channel breaks south will be exiting long and looking to get short targeting to fill 12.60 gap and then prep for 4-5x long position.
Back in November, I suggested that we could see a short squeeze in the gold market if prices were to fall below $1080, followed by a sharp bounce at the start of 2016 (please see the related idea below for the original chart and analysis). While I had specifically indicated $1010-1020 as an ideal zone to watch for such a reveral, the market ended up bottoming at...
DAILY : Currently, we are far away from daily demand and price is way extended to the upside.
H4 : H4 zone direction is down
H1 : there is an H1 original zone inside of an H4 zone
TP1 : 1:1 Ratio
TP2 : Trail stop till the lower channel line or the daily demand zone
Good luck!
Long term I'm bullish but if we can get a lift in USD and see metal take a dip we could be looking at a near term high. In an ideal world we bounce up to fill gap at 13 and then roll over and drop back to $5 levels. Tough to believe it could take such a battering but those gaps are there to be filled. One to watch this week.
Long term bullish gold... however useful short opportunity as we approach 1306 high. Will be looking to load up long if we get a decent dip.
Copper lead the sell off see "Copper Short"
Short at 1287, SL 1310, TP1 1183
JNUG rise will fill gap in next 6 weeks with gold on the path to go above $1300 to at least $1338 in the next few weeks especially as Sell in May comes into play with global growth slowdown impacting earnings for many companies especially Blue-chips. The view of gold as safe-haven asset in times of volatility and turmoil will help this rise in addition to it...
Gold currently testing resistance and should break through to between $1335 - $1417 levels. Break above $1417 should take us to next resistance at $1565 provided global growth concerns get worse and global depression gets worse. Make no mistake the world is in recession and this earnings season is showing how bad.
NOTE: Horizontal lines are my support/resistance...
In my analysis I see gold completing an ending diagonal to finish its' 5 wave move up from the lows in December. This will result in gold giving back some of its' gains in the coming months.
It is common to see overthrows in ending diagonals which is why i think price can meet wave III at 1285, perhaps even higher, before making its' decline. However, because...
