I have two plans (bull and bear) but trying to work them both out separately but comparing them to other instruments I'm watching (US Indexes and Oil) make one less likely at the moment.
If Gold is still bull long-term then this plan would be valid. We are finishing the last leg of the impulse wave (v) before it begins to correct. How low? No lower than the...
Overall, I still see EW taking us lower. We are currently in an intermediate upward cycle from 1315-8 to 1327-9 before it takes us to new lows.
I'll post lower timeframe charts below as we have a bull run until back on track for bear.
BULL: now, 1315/18 to 1327ish.
BEAR: after that target reached or close, we'll head back south 1310, first part of wave 5 complete.
Waiting to complete D. Once complete looking for 1326, over 1329 we'll continue higher. If it pushes lower past 1300 a run higher is invalid and I'll be looking for 1297.
Over the past few weeks gold has been in a corrective phase following the Brexit wave, which in our counts has reached the top of a 5 wave impulse cycle. This five wave cycle is, at the highest cycle levels, corrective in structure following the long descent of the past 6 years. This corrective structure indicates to us there is a high likelihood for the near to...
Tight stop loss makes then one easy to try.
If D reached and completed, I'll enter short at 1354. Stop loss at 1356, if the bull runs.
TP1 1345
TP2 1340
There was a final push at the end of Friday's large decline that kept killing my scalps for gold to go back up. Bad for the scalps but it did push it down enough to validate, in my calculation, the final leg of the bat formation. Now, I'm looking to retrace to the Fibo .382 mark with a target of 1352.
This is my first bat and retrace trade to post so I'm only...
Have we just formed a double-top in gold? From the looks of it, we have which means that gold prices are likely headed down. We've reached the top of the major trend channel and the last down wave had really large volume, suggesting that supply is entering the market. Today's trading session also had a wide price range, indicating ease of movement, and a close...
We didn't break the upper trendline and came down to break through the smaller TF lower trendline to find more buyers. Indexes continue to drop so we'll watch where gold finds ground to push from. Either 1370 or if it needs more buyers and better timing (the end of the week maybe with new economic press) we'll hit 1350 before higher targets.
I waited for some type of direction tonight but nothing. We'll see how rates reports have an affect if any in the morning. Typhoon in China kept volume low.
I'm waiting to higher or lower entries in either direction. It needs to move down to gain strength to push higher rather than weak movements. Buyers need to feel they have a true opportunity and with the US...
Many of us have watched as Yellen and others give indications to US rate hikes and how/when they should help the economy. Japan has waited even longer for their rate decision. In gold we've seen spikes, pullbacks and consolidation but the night is upon us in the US and the day has come overseas. Let's see how it plays out.
I'm basing FIBO off of lows and highs,...
It's easy to get caught up in the news. I learned the hard way a few times that having a bigger plan is crucial rather than trying to chase the outcome of news events. But with care trades can be made whether it's scalping, trend-trading or ranges.
This isn't a trade but just a bigger perspective we can reflect upon afterwards.
I'll append close-ups below...
The S&P500 and Gold ratio is turning down sharply today, if we break yesterday's low, or break today's low on close, during tomorrow's session, we could see a sharp drop in equities, as evidenced by the shift in sentiment the ratio shows.
I'd reccomend closing equity longs, or even shorting DIA or SPY and pair it with GLD longs, basing size on 1 month ATR on each...
Let's see if we catch this top here. Looking for a retest of the KEL below.
Stop loss at 41.39, and risking a small amount (0.5-1%) is fine.
Gold futures and spot look ready to move down and NEM is extremely overbought here.
You can also take a pair trade against GLD, other miners, etc. I'll share a few example setups in the comments.
Check out my updated track...
There is one weekly target that hasn't been hit yet, and I suspect we might hit it very soon, so I'm willing to risk taking a long position here, with 23 point downside risk.
Let's see if we can attain the weekly 'Time at mode' target before our stop loss gets hit. You can risk between 0.5 and 1% on this trade, and then look to add as it moves in profit, further...
COT report still showing a large number of shorts that were only added to after Brexit. Hedges? Or smart orders looking for the bottom before overbought markets correct. There's a lot of market profits to be pulled and after US election conventions we could see a big change helping to fuel metal's new bull path.
