Going to play either a momentum long move with a 61.8% retracement, or will be short the market at the 127% extension. Planning to let the market decide where it wants to go and take a good RR. Both trades are over 3:1 risk reward:
LONG @ 1.7740
S/L @ 1.7594
TARGET @ 1.8150
SHORT @ 1.8030
S/L @ 1.8105
TARGET @ 1.7820
GBPNZD Monthly chart - correction on lower support Trendline. The formation of a bullish reversal in the shape of Tweezer Bottom or Railway tracks comes to mind.
This comes off the back of a Fib Projection outcome that has played out since August 2015. Price has moved 100% of the initial selloff. Correction in play. 76.4% fib level a potential 1st target.
It has hit the lowest level in recent years and the last time it hit those levels it was in 2013 and there was a rally on the upside.
The trend line is also showing evidence that its getting tighter if it breaks that trend line expect a huge rally on the upside. I will leave my order above the current bar and hold this position till it reaches the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
RBNZ not adding much new in their September statement, and imo, Gov Wheelers speech highlighting the issues with trying to control a ccy with the cash rate makes the persistent worries regarding kiwi/ nzd strength less of a dovish factor than it may appear. Nonetheless, the statement on the margin was neutral, with perhaps the pressure for a lower kiwi and...
1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) GBPNZD has a cumulative probability of a =>6th day lower at 0.99%, hence there is a implied 99% chance of reversal on the daily.
2. Also we see the Z-Score for, Monthly, 3m and 2wk all above 1.5SD - with 1m heavily over sold at -2SD.
3. Fundamentally Sterling looks a little...
GBPNZD-Direction with S/R zones
Price drop back to previous low, could be a double bottom before a strong rebound, but if price drop through this support zone, further low towards the next support zone below.
Trading the S/R Zones for 4 Hour Chart
(4 hour chart for weekly entries of buy and sell.)
All S/R Zones has...
GBP moving higher?
1. Leading post brexit data has recovered significantly from 5-10yr lows to firm growth or significant recovery (PMI, Optimism, Confidence) and imo this will be continuing theme given negs arent going to start for another 6-9m, there isnt any impetus to drive us lower again.
2. Also the macro indicators are trading well, e.g....