I have not been able to trade/chart much lately but I wanted to make note of where we closed yesterday vs open today. CPI running hot. almost a perfect setup for a bearish reversal leading into opex next week. SPX just closed above the ZeroG (gamma flip) in relation to Naive Gamma. Means dealers should be selling us lower into next week. Get free Naive Gamma...
Let's take a look at Bitcoin from a broader perspective. Today we retested the Virgin VPOC from January 5th. The bearish sentiment has been overcome and we have a fully confirmed change to Bullish (green background of the sentiment indicator + blue bars - I explained the indicator in one of the separate entries that I add to Related Ideas). After breaking 46105,...
Last 2 weeks have been bearish through APPL and TSLA earnings. Attention now turns to Amazon earnings (feb2) as they teeter on oversold RSI and below 2yr support. Not regaining this support from bad earnings will likely see this S&P bearish flag breakout to the downside. Canadians wielding pitchforks and torches, Russia and nato saber rattling and China...
Boy George this week has been nuts. I haven't had as much time to work on the GEX tool as I had hoped but I did get some work done on testing it. Check it out at www.spyvsgme.com A lot of gamma exposure rolled off this week and brought the gamma zero strike from 140 down to 125 and a 2.3M GEX. Price target of 125 this week seems reasonable as total GEX...
Scary but also beautiful! How is it possible? We see clear downtrend and now it’s confirmed also by Options Sentiment indicator at the bottom (both signals aligned - more volume in Put Options than Calls (orange vertical bars) & red background showing sentiment of Options indicator. Both are Bearish now. But when BTC will reverse (and it will happen somewhen in...
We observe weakness/Bears dominating BTC market recently. Options Sentiment Indicator is giving mixed signals (overall we see bullish sentiment from Options traders but more volume is within PUT options still). 4 Virgin VPOCs are awaiting retest and are located above current price in comparison to 1 VPOC below current price - Bullish pressure area of 46000...
Not very much happening in terms of a continuation to the Santa Rally. We did see BTC recover from its recent decline and the 3am BTD brought the futures positive. VIX has been tame. Not much up. Not much going down. Slow grind to 4800 until DEC31. Consolidation. Theta Grind. It's a waiting game.
Cautious Optimism best describes my feelings about how this santa rally will end. Santa Musk continues to mess with shorts as he unwinds his options Tranches. Is he done yet? who knows, but it's fun to watch. As for futures, a fairly balanced day yesterday. After the bull run we had, one should expect a cooling off period. If RSI on the 4hr bounces off 64.5...
Volatility Contraction Pattern Trade Closed I closed my Volatility Contraction Pattern trade yesterday before closing. 1 reason was that bitcoin started selling off at 12pm, and I’ll get to the reason later. SANTA RALLY Dec27 to Jan 3rd The Santa rally that started early (DEC20), continued into the overnight as the 3 am Buy the Dip crew continued...
Today I would like to introduce you all to process of analysis step by step instruments with usage of Options Toolkit Suite. I wrote in my earlier posts what edge can give us data obtained from Options Market. So now let's jump into details and have step-by-step detailed guide. Firstly we need chart layout split to 3, as on three different timeframes we will...
Let's jump to analyse the data from Options market and scan main markets from D1 timeframe perspective: DAX - opposite signals from Options flow, as in general we have recently present Bullish sentiment for last 3 sessions, but Option Volume flow still points to Bearish signal (as PUT Volume aka red line is higher/above CALL Volume aka green line). Virgin...
Before i start posting my trade ideas and charts , wanted to post this quick as its pretty current. I trade Options and the underlying. Before I make any decisions on what to trade and how to trade it, first i need to understand what is going on in the Meta indicies and how Options are positioned. This well help me understand the type of Vol to expect and what...
Bitcoin is trading recently in clearly visible Trading Range, keeping investors nervous and asking question - is it Distribution or Accumulation? From Daily Timeframe we see in general Positive/Bullish sentiment from Options Traders, but it's not fully confirmed by the market yet. Going into more detailed M30, we see recent signals of incoming demand to the market...
Tesla $TSLA has 38.25% of gamma expiring this Friday Breach of 908/900 would fill gap lower to 895. Previous upside nine from Jan 885 could act as support. 875 is a previous upside nine on the daily from Oct 18, bottom of that range is 850/843 and lower Fib support is near 815. MACD / RSI currently over sold with ATR expanding after selling volume came in after...
Options are major weapon (if properly used) in toolset of Trader. Billions of dollars each day are floating on market and speculation here is an art. Art performed by Big Guys (aka Smart Money), where funds are often significantly higher in comparison to Futures Market. With help of Machine Learning algorithms, I load Options Flow data, parse and analyse it and...
According to MarketWatch, 89.54% of the float of Biofrontera Inc. (BFRI) is shorted. Are you ready for a short squeeze? How high will it go?
The Options Market can inform well in advance about movements that are yet to happen in futures contracts. Looking at the Options with an Exercise Date (expiry) in 22 days at the time of writing the analysis, the conclusions are quite loud and clear: 50,000 - Put Wall level, that is support with 2 times more capital than the other levels 60,000 - Call Wall...
It's going to be an extremely tough week to trade ES. There is no clear directional sentiment. I'll point out arguments for each side: Bullish sentiment: - We saw some VERY aggressive buying (and selling of SPX puts) on Friday near lows. in a normal market, the sheer volume and intensity of these trades would have been enough to call a bottom. - VIX is at...