Dear readers, no suprise, as forseen, interest rates have been lowered by ECB President Draghi and no QE has been announced yet although ECB state that they are working on it.
2-We have seen the price as I've forseen yesterday, i.e 4 candles before ECB decision that price my go down to 1.355 and even 1.352 which it did, and now there is a recovery towards 1.362...
Nasdaq is over performing. STOCH is at the overbought level. Confirmed by VIX index as well. The market was and is too overconfident but there are initial signs for a reversal at least for the aim of a correction if not more.
SPX is still the a raising wedge pattern. Technical indicators shows clearly that we are at an overbought level. Therefore the index may face a technical correction ,and may be a short term reversal as well.
Anyway, many attempts to break over 1925 but none of them were successfull and powerfull enough to install SPX above that level.
On a purely macro economic...
CAC40's was on an excessive level. Above 4506, it is a very illusive and excessive level as far as I am concerned. YOu can clearly see on my previous studies that my headline goal was 4506. I could have reviewed this level if ECB was clearly announcing a European QE which will not yet be the case.
Having said that, on a purely technical aspect, the index may face...
On a purely technical aspect, DAX is facing a heavy resistance over 9950. My personal target of FED's QE3 based on QE1+QE2+ DAX's index earning being reinvest in the market was and still is 9706. Therefore I do consider every level above 9706 excessive and overbought as it is now.
STOCH Shows clearly the signal of correction.
Since Mid March, even later early...
Some FOREX pairs's future are really in between the lips of CB's President either ECB for EURUSD or FED and Yellen for USDJPY.
Having said that, the future of USDJPY is in the lips of Yellen.
there might be a technical correction on the pair in favor or JPY towards 101.5 or even a little bit bellow, but on a long run, particularly of FED increases its interest...
We are at 12 candles sticks before ECB PResident Mario Draghi makes its statement with regard the interest rate.
In both cases, lowering interest rate to -0.25 or keeping the interest rate as it is will not give an impetus to the market because European Banks own savings will not go to investment or to facilitate the credits line for SME's, and the private...
The future of USDJPY pair is in the hands of the FED. BoJ made its announcement in the past week and decided to put an end to the Quantitative easing. On a very long term basis, USD vs JPY fight should end with USD being on the winning side. The "Historical" trading range of USDJPY is between 99 and 104 when the market is not distorted by Central Banks action...
Well, the basic NASDAQ is what it is. But on a bigger picture and scale, NAsdaq 100 Above 20 day Average is a very good indicator of the trend.
Bare in mind that the growth rate of US was -1% for 1Q2014... And this despite a low USD, favorable for export, number of jobless decreased, Shell-gas production increased.......
Therefore, the trend is really worrying...
USDJPY is floating in a large band between 103,5 and 101 since JAnuary 2014. It was an easy trading. Around 103 you short and at around 101 you go long.
After BoJ announcement of the tightening of the monetary policy, and the tappering, the balance and the swing would have been almost the same with a rising trend in favor of USD.
But there is a new situation...
Sometimes, we do forget to focus on the forest and therefore on on big picutre, because we are stuck focusing on one tree.
On the big picture, we see 3 inputs, which are QE1+QE2+QE3 and there effect on the market, the relaunch of it, the ending period and the effect on EURUSD.
With the end of QE3, baring in mind that FED President Yellen is still keeping the...
Friends,
This past April 15, 2014, I offered a relatively imminent value where the benchmark 10-Year treasuries would possibly reverse and start a new upward trajectory.
In this new chart, I would like to offer mitigating views from Fibonacci values, Elliott Wave counts, and an predictive analysis, each standing in contrast to one another, and offering lower...
Friends,
A lot of paper printing has been going on since we first released a Target-High @ 1.68923 on February 2014. This was a long call asking the position trader to hold tight, but a prop pattern justified the initial call, and back with the right predictive analysis and forecasting system, I am glad to see it attain its final destination as of today - Here...
Friends,
As a new week opens, a bird's eye view of the Forex market might be best appreciated if taken on the back of the US Dollar Index (DXY).
SOME FUNDAMENTAL POINTS AND OPINION:
At this point, fundamentals are expecting to carry the greenback upwards, on the general assumption that the Fed will continue to taper. We also discussed earlier weaknesses in...
Friends,
As the stock market is turning increasingly wary and talk of a market crash abound, other risk aversion behaviors have transpired through Forex pairs. Here, in particular, USDJPY fell significantly, keeping lower supports exposed.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING DATA:
Predictive analysis and forecasting system remains bearish in the short-tern, but...
Friends,
At this point, markets seem to have leveled off. In fact, USD started to rally, as it gains strength against most other currencies, except against the EURUSD, whose high of 1.38981 has remained unchallenged even after US markets closed.
A look at a reverse correlated USDCHF, my predictive analysis and forecasting system remains neutral for the time...
